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Brexit

Does anyone else sense a change of mood re Brexit?

649 replies

twofingerstoGideon · 19/10/2016 16:23

I was rather astounded following the referendum that politicians of all shades weren't making noises about Brexit needing parliamentary scrutiny etc., but at last - after almost four months - it's as if people are waking up, noticing the shambles and saying "Hang on a minute... I'm not sure we should be doing this..." It was shocking to see the lack of reaction to the xenophobia and the way politicians of all shades seemed to be saying we had to blindly obey the very slim majority. The lack of disgust expressed by the press/politicians about the barefaced lies used by the Leave campaign (not to mention that poster) was also mind-blowing.

Has anyone else noticed a change in the air? I'm starting to feel slightly hopeful for the first time since 24th June that the country isn't just going to jump off a cliff in order to follow 'the will of the people'.

Anyone else, or am I deluded?

OP posts:
SleepFreeZone · 19/10/2016 17:56

Brexit. It's happening. We are in a worldwide crisis, not just a European one.

StripeyMonkey1 · 19/10/2016 17:59

This Robert Peston article makes the point that true Brexit, with settled trade deals, is likely to take at least ten years.

In the interim, we can either stay a member of the single market or we can go it alone under WTO rules. Whilst some Leavers will undoubtedly call foul, I see no reason why we should cut out our legs from under us (i.e. leave the single market) before we make our own trade deals. Brexit will be a long process.

Brexit means we are leaving the EU, to repeat the bleedin' obvious.
But did that momentous vote tell us anything about precisely when we are leaving and the glide path to exit?

I mention this because there has been almost no public debate about the transitional arrangements for leaving. And yet these transitional arrangements could be as economically important as the long term destination.

The point is that a cabinet consensus appears to be building for the UK to negotiate perhaps 40 sectoral trade deals with the EU, to replicate our current membership of the EU single market for our most important industries.

But those negotiations could take a good decade to complete, if the experience of other countries like Switzerland are a guide.

So the question - which is troubling our big exporting companies - is what our access to the European Union's single market will be in 2019, when our article 50 negotiations with the other 27 EU member nations will have exhausted their time limit, and we'll have left the EU.

Would our manufacturers then face tariffs based on the World Trade Organisation's menu on their exports to the EU (tariffs that would inflate the price of British-made cars by around 10% for example)? Would our financial services companies face prohibitions on what they can sell to much of the rest of Europe?

It is this possible introduction into the trading system of new costs and friction in just over two years that is prompting some big companies to consider shifting investments and jobs across the Channel, to swerve those possible barriers to trade.

The point is that even if by 2027 we might have trading arrangements with the EU comparable to today's, 2027 is another world when it comes to corporate planning horizons - and few boards would make big UK investments now when there is so little certainty about the trading framework for a decade, and even the destination in 2027 is amorphous.

Which is why there is talk about whether we could remain as temporary members of the single market, perhaps via the European Economic Area, till sectoral market-access deals are in place.

However this would prohibit us from putting in place new immigration controls for many years, and would oblige us to keep paying into Brussels' coffers.

Or to put it another way, Brexit would not mean Brexit Now, but Brexit Deferred?

Is that what 17m voted for? Would the Tory Party hold together if confronted with such a long road to the exit?

Those are judgements that the prime minister has just a few weeks and months to make. And they will determine the prosperity for most of us for the forecastable future.

Believeitornot · 19/10/2016 18:23

The referendum was advisory not bloody binding.

Why we are acting as if it is binding I have no idea.

So, damn right it needs to go through the proper parliamentary channels.

NataliaOsipova · 19/10/2016 18:29

*The referendum was advisory not bloody binding.

Why we are acting as if it is binding I have no idea.

So, damn right it needs to go through the proper parliamentary channels.*

Absolutely right. All this "will of the people" crap makes my blood boil. It was 52/48, not 98/2. If the Remain camp had won by 52%, would it have been appropriate to sign us up for the Euro and closer European integration? Of course not. What the result shows is that it is a deeply divisive issue on which the country is not united. People talk about it like it's voting for whether to go for a pizza or a Chinese, which is totally idiotic....

time4chocolate · 19/10/2016 18:31

Twofingerstogideon - it might be hyperbole but it might not. I am not saying all Leavers will start rioting but we would be in dangerous waters and I personally wouldn't want to test it out.

Believeitornot · 19/10/2016 18:34

I hope the "will of the people" talk comes back to bite the Tories on the arse.

AnchorDownDeepBreath · 19/10/2016 18:35

I wonder if this is a rouse to keep the peace.

A lot of very senior legal minds looked at this. the government had some but god knows how good they were. The major banks and companies did, too. Leading law firms raked over it to be the firm that could redeem the UK; to become famous for finding a different angle. Nothing.

I think it'll go through parliament so that it ends the "it should have gone through parliament" arguement, but I think it'll be a vote only in name.

FitnessFad · 19/10/2016 18:36

Nope, no change of mood at all.
Brexit is happening - PLEASE accept it!

AnchorDownDeepBreath · 19/10/2016 18:37

If the government vote in, and we voted out... (we did, as a majority, unfortunately - and there's no real call for a second referdum, probably because brexiters were so quiet last time that nobody really predicted this) well, I can't think of a time in history that this has gone well. We are not a democracy then. Maybe that will suit everyone who wants to remain now - arguably it could suit everyone, whether they'd admit it or not - it'd be dangerous. The next decision they forced through could be cataclysmic.

twofingerstoGideon · 19/10/2016 18:46

Brexit is happening - PLEASE accept it!

Why?

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Bearbehind · 19/10/2016 18:58

There would be a total riot if the government ignored the result of a democratic vote. There is no longer a choice.

I think that would happen if we backed out today but I can't help having an optimistic feeling that Brexit might implode before A50 is invoked.

I'd like to think the in-fighting and lack of direction is actually a cunning plan by the government to get Leavers to realise what a disaster it is going to be.

The truth is probably it is actually the fucking shambles it appears to be but the end result is heading in the same direction- if enough people realise they'll be worse off out of the EU then the government would get away with not going ahead with Brexit by claiming that was now 'the will of the people'

Mistigri · 19/10/2016 19:46

The problem with Brexit is that while it is currently politically impossible to contenance not delivering it, it's also going to be politically impossible to deliver a Brexit that will be supported by more than a minority of the population.

I'm not sure how this circle can be squared, but I'm increasing dubious that May has the intellectual capacity or the political flexibility to do it.

Mistigri · 19/10/2016 19:47

Countenance, not contenance, sorry

twofingerstoGideon · 19/10/2016 19:51

I agree with that, Mistigri. I've always thought that delivering Brexit would require huge vision and confidence. I can't think of anyone/any group that has these qualities. It would also need to be sold as being positive for the country. Again, no evidence of that happening.

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Peregrina · 19/10/2016 20:03

I think all this 'there will be riots' stuff is hyperbole. A sizeable proportion of people probably walked away from the polling station and haven't given it a second thought since,
Quite, they probably didn't give it much thought before either.

The 48% haven't rioted. Are we saying that leave voters are more prone to hysteria and rioting?
Only that Leave encompasses virtually all of the UKIP vote, and as we have seen, settling things with their fists is the way they conduct themselves, so you could say yes a section of Leavers are prone to rioting.

FarAwayHills · 19/10/2016 20:54

This 'will of the people' thing is just the governments way of passing the buck so that when it all goes horribly wrong we 'the people' only have ourselves to blame.

It has been widely accepted that this referendum was a shambles. The campaign run by both camps was all about fear, false promises and personal point scoring. People were not informed about how this was going to work, how long it would take and the many complex issues were never addressed. All we heard was less migrants and loads more money for the NHS Hmm

I firmly believe that if there was a referendum tomorrow there would be a different outcome.

Kaija · 19/10/2016 21:01

I do sense a change, but unfortunately think mistigri's assessment is right.

A lot may depend on the article 50 judgment in a few weeks though.

MynameisMummy · 19/10/2016 21:08

Brexit is happening - PLEASE accept it!

Yeah. The UK has been significantly devalued. Make Britain great again? My arse. We are an international laughing stock. At this rate, our kids will be lucky to get a job as a German builder or cleaner. Remember Auf Wiedersen Pet and all that? Straight back to the 1970s. Absolutely. Let's all just accept that. A load of fucking idiots who wouldn't know the current account deficit if it came to bite them on the arse have sold us all up the river. Let's all accept it quietly.

Figmentofmyimagination · 19/10/2016 21:35

I don't get all this stuff about riots. If people riot, they should be arrested and dealt with severely, as they were in 2011. Anyway why is there a belief that many leavers would riot? Aren't a lot of leavers getting on a bit for rioting? Isn't it more important to make sure that peaceful tax paying members of the public and stable growing businesses continue to see the uk as a desirable place to live?

time4chocolate · 19/10/2016 21:50

Civil unrest can take many forms.

Corcory · 19/10/2016 22:00

I really don't think it would be the elderly leave voters would cause trouble if we didn't leave but the racist, xenophobic, BNP types that would just be waiting for any excuse to cause trouble and worse, much much worse.
I dread to think what these idiots like the ones who killed a polish man might do.

Figmentofmyimagination · 19/10/2016 22:08

Since when did this country make policy based on a fear of racists? Teresa may needs to grow some courage (and perhaps raise police wages like margaret thatcher did).

TheElementsSong · 19/10/2016 22:13

racist, xenophobic, BNP types that would just be waiting for any excuse to cause trouble and worse, much much worse.

(1) The racist BNP thugs have been encouraged to believe they are justified by the xenophobic rhetoric coming from senior politicians who should damn well have known better, which IIRC you denied was happening.
(2) We're all going to potentially commit economic suicide to appease racist BNP thugs? You think they're not going to get antsy when jobs are lost and prices of necessities rise?
(3) Where do we draw the line in appeasing, and whom we appease?
(3a) In keeping with appeasing racist BNP thugs, ultimately what they want is expulsion of all people of swarthy hue and foreign blood. Those people you say you want to welcome.
(3b)There are plenty of people including some senior politicians, who believe in crushing freedom of speech and punishing anybody who reports reality opposes Brexit. Should we appease them too? I imagine there's an amount of overlap with aforementioned fascist thugs.

Corcory · 19/10/2016 22:23

I'm not suggesting we try and appease anybody but several posters were belittling the idea that there would be much, if any civil unrest if Brexit didn't happen. I was simply pointing out that there are a lot of idiots around and it wouldn't be the elderly who would be causing riots.

WinchesterWoman · 19/10/2016 22:26

So you think the media and democracy-denying politicians and think tanks have talked it down so much that the lies have achieved what project fear failed at?

No thanks I'm fine. Invoke article fifty now.

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