Westministenders. Boris and co learn the basics - and limits - of British sovereignty and democracy.

[RedToothBrush]

There is a plan.

It is not a very good one, but May says she has a plan.

As May declared a revolution and set out her vision for a Britain ‘open’ for free trade and hard working people she managed to further drive in the wedge of division into a society which needed measured and sensitive handling.

Her speech was met, with much derision and horror both here and abroad. Even UKIP voices say the Conservatives went too far.

Brexit began to take shape. It appeared hard and fast. Without the consent of parliament. It was to be run by the executive alone. As the ex-Polish Foreign Minister points out, the shape of it decided because it was viewed as the ‘easiest’ option. Not the one in the best interests of the country. Leaving the EU has become indistinguishable to the Single Market. We are told by Mr Davis that there is no down side to this.

Then something else began to happen and the plan is beginning to not look so clever…

The pound plunged.

Mr Hammond, who has seemed to have resisted the urge to take the hallucinatory drugs being handed out in vast quantities around the Cabinet Table, came out saying that we must consider the economic reality of Brexit.

It was followed by a leaked paper that put the cost of Hard Brexit at between £38bn and £66bn a year. Our EU membership cost £8bn last year. Where are those NHS buses now?

The government response? Oh that was George. He just made it up for ‘Project Fear’. Or something to that effect.

The government on the one hand were saying how great Brexit will be, yet were not prepared to make the case in parliament. The Times editorial came out as categorically for the Single Market. Even the Sun on Sunday editorial spoke up for the Single Market (though was still in the land of cake wanting immigration control too).

David Davis took to the Commons to answer questions and was met with a chorus of rising alarm. Whilst he confirmed that the majority of EU citizens here do have their right to remain here as being their legal entitlement, it does not guarantee their rights under this. He echoed the language of the citizen of nowhere in May’s speech and, perhaps can be seen to make, the stark message that you should consider taking on British Citizenship.

Parliament has started to wake up to what is at stake. It is not just whether we stay in the EU or not, but Brexit presents a challenge to democratic processes and threatens to bypass the checks and balances to power that parliament is supposed to provide. It is a threat to our international reputation as a champion of liberal values and democratic stature. It is a threat to our economic security. It is a threat to our diplomatic relations, with the reckless comments and language coming from some. .

The stirrings of rebellion and a credible opposition come from a variety of quarters. From both leavers and remainers alike. From every party including the governments. Initially the government refused to give, so Labour announced an opposition debate on transparency of Brexit and it all started to fall apart. Faced with a vote they could not get enough support to win they made an apparent U-Turn and agreed to parliamentary scrutiny of the government’s position ahead of a50 within certain limits.

Keir Starmer, making the point that Human Rights Lawyers are not to be messed with, has written 170 questions, one for every day before the end of March when a50 is due to be triggered, for Davis to respond to.

However, the agreement to this debate on negotiations is none binding and there is no date for it as yet. The government must not be allowed to pay lip service to rebels. They must be held to this reversal.

Today’s opposition debate seems to suggest that the government definition of scrutiny is wheeling out David Davies and get him to waffle a lot and not say anything. This has gone down like a lead balloon. The government can not maintain this. Something will give. He has still refused to release a green or white paper which many expected.

May’s choice will be blunt. She either keeps pretending Santa is real and can deliver the pony whilst losing the house in the process or she owns up to the looming cold hard truth of reality.

May might be fully committed to taking us off the cliff top no matter what but she’s going to have to fight to get there.

In the best interests of the country the pressure must be kept up. There must be resistance to the ‘Little England’ mentality and orders by the Mail and the Express to silence those unpatriotic ‘agents of Brussels’ who are raising legitimate concerns that need to be considered as part of the process.

Its either this or we will have to rely on the proposed new Royal Yacht to send Kate off round the world begging for trade deals “to once again project the prestige of this nation across the globe” as Mr Gove says. Prestige we still had before the referendum was announced.

Has anyone seen the customs union stuff from the LSE etc? Visit interesting.

negotiation on the basis that it is definitely reversible changes the tone of negotiations and what's at stake on both sides. And that is probably not in the UK's favour as it incentivizes some within Europe offering absolutely awful terms

But "full SM or nothing at all" are the only terms on offer, whether or not Article 50 is reversible. This position doesn't hinge on Article 50: it's the only politically acceptable position for the 27.

That is, until rightwing populists get elected to government in more EU countries. Then the whole political landscape changes, and it's a nightmare scenario for all of Europe, not just for the UK.

About the Grandad - you only know what you know. If you're lucky, and intelligent, you may have a glimmer of what you don't know. I think it's profoundly arrogant of the grandad to presume that the younger generation doesn't have the insights he has. He means well, but the hint that he got it wrong is his emphasis on the past. The future is always about the future. Those who harken back to 'the past' are looking for simple certainly, and they are always ignoring vast chunks of the reality of the actual past that they lived through. They have a narrative of 'the past' that is in fact wishful thinking. They are acting out of fear and confusion and insecurity and every other inadequate response to the present.

May, I suspect, may be trying to do that in her own way but by means which will not achieve this utopia as she lacks understanding of certain things and you can not work completely against the forces of the outside world
She is 'Grandad'.
'Utopia' hits the nail on the head.

Does TM not care about her reputation outside little England?
I do not think she does. She personifies Little England.

Cecile:
Who do these people think pay for the NHS?
They don't understand who pays, or that somebody pays, and if they did they would not care - as long as they weren't treated by forrin nurses and doctors and as long as the other people in the ward didn't speak Polish or Romanian. They would resent the fact that there are sections of society making enough money to keep the NHS afloat.
And schools?
Same answer goes for schools - with the addition that schools are down the toilet since the end of corporal punishment, and they resent paying for the education of so many forrin children, resent paying for teachers they think are a bunch of wimps, resent paying for courses they don't understand like Media Studies and anything else that wasn't there when they were in school.
And why do they think so many people are visiting food banks?
They are scroungers, whiners, feckless chancers who thought they could live for free on child benefits. They are the products of the education system that is clearly a waste of money. They are Undeserving. Little England has never shaken off the Victorian morality that divides deserving from undeserving. (This makes it very hard to explain the contribution to the greater good of people whose surnames end with -sky).

As the Mother Jones article linked upthread says - what matters is life as it feels to them. And yes, they live in a rumour-sphere.

And wrt Philip Hammond - those comments that he has the backing, etc., etc., - yes, they are reminders that the knives are out and so are the whetstones.

On a separate but not unrelated note despite the Brexiteers' wishing and waving their wands around -- NI simply cannot find the billions it will lose with Brexit, both from EU funds, matching Westminster funds, the blow to agriculture and food processing, and the drop in the value of the £. NI is completely vulnerable to every single ill effect of Brexit (and therefore wisely voted to Remain). The only potential Plan B is leaving the UK and throwing in its lot with the Republic.

math well that was a depressing start to the day thanks for your reply though. Very true, but I am one of the lucky ones who had a very multicultural upbringing and I find it really hard to understand that outlook, which is my own ignorance I suppose.

Re: the grandad

"My generation knew the health society yours has only known unhealthy abnormality."

When was this healthy society?

When my parents were my children's age, my mum's parents were deciding whether it would be safer to send her to stay with relatives in Canada to avoid bombs, and my dad was evacuated for a while. They both voted remain.

There might have been a sustained period of peace in Europe before then, but I'd have to examine my history books to identify it.

Was the halcyon era from 1945 to Maastricht? I'm pretty sure that for a large amount of that time Europe was benefitting from the Marshall plan - basically sustained interference by the US to get Europe back on it's feet because, from a selfish perspective, the US felt it worthwhile to pay for stability in Europe.

Beyond that, the postwar period was a time of greater co-operation with Europe and end of Empire.

I'm just not successfully identifying this time when the UK stood on it's own and everything was healthily normal - or even just a little bit more healthily normal.

merry there was that long period where Britain was an empire, benefitting from slave labour, destroying indigenous peoples and their cultures, and so on. I uncharitably think that is what people really want to go back to. Post WW2 is the ascendency of the USA really.

That doesn't really meet the 'healthy normal' criteria though. It's a tough one!

Or the grandad being alive criteria.

Or peace in Europe.

there was that long period where Britain was an empire, benefitting from slave labour, destroying indigenous peoples and their cultures, and so on. I uncharitably think that is what people really want to go back to.

As one who was born in the early 1950s, I can tell you that this wasn't the story we were told! It was how wonderful 'we' were, all parts of the globe were coloured pink and the sun never set on our wonderful Empire, and we brought civilisation and law to those 'natives'. Ditto with the WW2 narrative - there was a time after the fall of France when 'we', plucky little Britain, was 'in it on our own', conveniently forgetting the contribution made by the nations of the then Empire.

It shocks me that so many of my own generation seem to have such a bigotted, narrow view of the world.

Excellent post math

conveniently forgetting the contribution made by the nations of the then Empire.

And that the war wasn't actually won on that basis...

I'm amazed at the arrogance of the grandad's letter, which I believe Brexiters find very moving. It's another version of "the good old days". As a foreigner I've always been curious about the very small mindedness of Little England: The suspicious outlook on anything intellectual, the patronizing attitude towards other cultures, which contrasts so greatly with the liberal open mind of the capital and other big cities, but especially the glorification of the past. I've always observed it with curiosity, the shock is that, for now that's the official discourse. The triumph of parochial mediocrity who's now found an official voice in Patel, Fox, Davies and May.

Excellent post math

Also I've been sort of turning over this phrase in my mind - "unhealthy abnormality" - and trying to understand what the Grandad might mean by it. In the context of the rest of that letter, my uncharitable interpretation is that it is a wholesale rejection of the values that hold dear; in which women, ethnic minorities, people of any religion or none, people of any sexual orientation, disabled people and men, are equal human beings with the same rights and freedoms.

Peregrina isn't that the worldview which people might think of as "healthy" though?

That's certainly the world view that DH was brought up to believe was healthy. MIL apparently put out a Union Jack on Empire Day (makes me cringe at the thought.) My parents were much, much more critical, so I was brought up to question more.

BTW - the Tory election posters in the Witney by election have a small union jack on them. Non of the other parties' posters do. Thus in my mind, trying to suggest that the Tories are the patriotic party and the rest aren't.

Peregrina I think you are right, in fact before you and I were born that older generation actually grew up during the war and in a period after where the press and government sent out a united message about the implicit superiority of our nation and an entitlement to having an empire that would not just fight our wars across the globe but also help sustain our recovery after. Even Labour governments hung on to colonies, particularly in Africa, that were seeking independence because they needed the food supply and those markets to sustain post war recovery. I think our generation were the first to have any real mass access to ideas that challenged that narrative, not only in terms of a more meaningful split between the Labour and Conservative parties in how they approached Foriegn policy but also coming from trade unionists, the far left, but also being exposed to alternative ideas and theories such as Marxism at university. However it was pretty easy to ignore those ideas, they were not going to affect your daily life. The Grandad in my life reads the Times cover to cover and has the BBC news channel on as a default background. I think he is searching for those old certainties in the reporting. Everything that is reported is compared to a "better" time in the 50s to 70s, let's call it pre EU. This pre EU fantasy was a society in which young doctors were not greedy for money, foreigners came here to work instead of scrounging on benefits or "making up half the prison population" (disproved by ONS statistics just in case anyone wants to latch on to that untruth) and they lived tolerantly alongside lesbians and homosexuals who were not militantly trying to claim it was normal and advocating all sorts of unfair advantages such as appropriating words like gay.

I don't think either we should ignore the fact that there is a correlation between age and political views that move from left to right that cannot be entirely put down to wisdom being conferred by age.

The weird thing is that the 50's, 60's and 70's weren't that great, for many, many people. It true that you could still earn a comparatively good living by manual work, but that change has nothing to do with the EU.

On a different note, I am genuinely confused about all this talk of the UK concentrating on jam sales.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/18/british-tea-jam-and-biscuits-will-be-at-the-heart-of-britains-br/

Mainly, I don't understand why we can't sell jam abroad now. Math might be able to comment more on this, but as far as I can work out Bonne Maman seems to be sold in America, and here is their Japanese website: www.bonnemaman.jp

Merry No, the 70s were actually not that great at all if you were involved in the manufacturing industries that were left to wither in competition with emerging economies, but those are the very areas that voted leave in huge swathes.

Hard Brexitwww.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/18/theresa-may-given-stark-warning-about-leaving-customs-union
Theresa May given stark warning about leaving customs union
Exclusive: UK hard Brexit pullout risks big fall in GDP and trade gridlock at ports, cabinet committee told

The paper on the customs union also warned that to stand still in trade terms after a withdrawal from the bloc, the UK would need to grow trade with its 10 largest partners outside the EU by 37% by 2030.

and

Ministers were also warned that some ports, including Dover and Holyhead, which handle a lot of road freight, could be seriously clogged up if there were customs checks on vehicles transporting goods.

The document said that extra infrastructure required, likely to include dozens of parking spaces for lorries undergoing checks, could not physically be built in Dover because of its cliffs.

Jonathan Roberts, head of communications at the UK Chamber of Shipping, told the Guardian that removal of customs controls in 1992 “stimulated huge growth” of trade between Britain and its EU neighbours.

He added: “£120bn of goods is transported on ferries to and from Dover alone every year, and the re-imposition of significant customs checks would cause profound traffic problems near ports and could ultimately cause a reduction in trade volumes.”

and

Others highlighted the UK-Irish border, which is effectively invisible, warning that it would be a complex issue to tackle if it had to become a new point for customs checks.

Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, said that Irish officials feared that the return of customs posts would provoke terrorist attacks. “The British and Irish governments would certainly do everything possible to minimise physical customs checks on the border – perhaps through the use of advanced technology, or simply through checking lorries at towns near the border, rather than at the border itself,” he said.

1. So much for reducing red tape under Brexit.
2. We need to increase trade by 37% to non-EU partners in 10 years. Trade that will be at least for the initial period be extremely caught up with red tape as its less easy to trade with these countries under WTO rules.
3. We would also need to start recruiting customs staff now to meet demand and get them trained up. The trouble is we don't know if we will definitely need them until negotiations have CONCLUDED. We will therefore have to work on an assumption. Or we could get caught short.
4. We need to build car parks to hold lorries. This requires planning, planning approval and then construction time.
5. We could end up with a situation where there are shortages in the UK with food and other items. If only because all our lorries are caught at Dover for long periods they are not bringing goods BACK into the country.
6. This problem would be particularly acute in NI as lorries get caught in Holyhead.
7. I would fully expect lots of people to 'stock up' in the months before in this situation, as much as cash flow and warehouse space would allow. I would expect prices to start hiking well before we left in order to cover the extra costs of this.
8. Even then there could be shortages, if it took a long time to resolve (which it probably would). Manufacturers could run out of supplies - personal could be put on short time, whilst prices started to sky rocket.
9. The suggestion of a technological border is an absolute nonsense. At least initially. It would time to set up the system - a project that I suspect would take at least 18months to do.
10. Hard border posts in NI would need to be also set up prior to leaving. They would be a target in this period - when a deal might still be in progress. Checking goods in border towns does not solve the problem at all. Lorries in built up areas would just be the target instead (Doh! How thick are people that they can't even foresee this)
11. I just don't get why switching to WTO rules ends up regaining sovereignty. All it does is shift this part of our sovereignty to another body and court system which we are not in control of either.
12. Have any plans to go to Europe via ferry or Eurostar in Summer 2019? You'd have to be fucking insane.
13. By god 2019 could be grim from beginning to end, if Hard Brexit without a transitional deal really is on the cards.

Ian Dunt has tweeted about Biscuit plan:

Ian Dunt ‏@IanDunt
It's taken them nearly four months and the best plan the Brexiters have is: Lets export biscuits.

Biscuits btw come under tariff category of ‘composite agrigoods’. Producers will have to cross reference 504 recipes to 27 kinds of product. That leaves 13,608 categories, with potentially different export rates, based on milk fat, milk proteins, starch, glucose or sugar levels. Biscuit producers will need to figure all that out, pay tariffs, and if no trade deal signed, have products stopped at border for testing. So even if the entirety of your economic plan involves selling the world biscuits, you should avoid Brexit. If your economic plan involved, oh I don't know, A strong services economy, with an emphasis on financial services, and a manufacturing base, then maybe avoid Brexit too.

Alexander Clarkson ‏@APHClarkson
@IanDunt Key ingredients from much biscuit production are imported from Canada, United States, EU, Ukraine, Argentina.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/7564f740-9575-11e6-914a-7a36010296b9
Johnson and Davis thwart rivals with a united front

Boris Johnson and David Davis have formed a pact to drive a “hard Brexit” agenda and rebut warnings of its economic consequences, cabinet colleagues claim.

The pair agree common positions and tactics before meetings of the Brexit sub-committee where they push “an absolutist” vision of Britain’s future outside the EU, say ministers who backed Remain in the referendum.

Senior Conservatives claim that the pair go out of their way not to contradict one another and that their approach is broadly aligned.

The pair are absolute loons.

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-will-take-uk-many-years-new-trade-deals-wto-chief-economist-a7367646.html
Brexit: It will take years for UK to agree new trade deals says WTO economist

No shit.

www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/remainers-must-stop-the-dishonest-games-7ckht3frq
Remainers must stop their dishonest games
Calling for Britain to stay in the single market but ditch free movement is a back-door way of defying the people

Before I get on to some more contentious points, I would like to make an appeal that could unite the entire nation. Can people please stop putting “Br” in front of words under the misapprehension that they are being either original or amusing?

We are stuck with the word Brexit, grating though it is. But Bremainers? Bremoaners? Or Nick Clegg’s dreadful Breniers? It’s time to stop. It’s brecome breally brirritating.

I’m glad that’s clear. I just wish it were my only complaint about the quality of the debate we’re having in the wake of the referendum.

Debate? What debate?

Immigration
www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/19/child-refugees-dental-tests-verify-age-david-davies?CMP=twt_gu
Give child refugees dental tests to verify age, says David Davies
Tory MP and sections of media accused of vilifying migrants after he suggests Britain’s hospitality is being abused

The welsh Davis not the Brexit Davis.

Minor point here, but:
Ciaran Jenkins ‏@C4Ciaran
British Dental Association: age tests are inaccurate.
David Davies: with all due respect they're not.

Ok then.

Heathrow

Tom Peck ‏@tompeck
Another cake on its way to Heathrow from the Amsterdam Schiphol chief exec. He sends one to say thank you every time the decision is delayed. (This is true, by the way. He really does do this. They've had, I think, seven large and very fancy cakes now)

Single Party State
blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/press-censorship-begun-scotland/
Press censorship has begun in Scotland

EU
www.politico.eu/article/martin-schulz-guy-verhofstadt-european-parliament-gets-ready-to-brainstorm-brexit-theresa-may/
European Parliament gets ready to brainstorm Brexit
Martin Schulz tells assembly’s committee chairs to start doing their homework.

The EU are at it Brainstorming now too. I don't know whether to laugh or cry.

A Plan
www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/19/strong-leadership-and-clear-plan-needed-for-brexit-says-thinktank
Strong Leadership and Clear Plan needed for Brexit says thinktank

People. Are. Paid. To. State. The. Bleeding. Obvious.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/19/coalition-liberal-brexit-tory-remainers-labour
Brexit united Tory and Labour losers. Now all they need is a battle plan

[RTB: Can I just go and hide under the bed until 2023 please?]

Article 50

www.ft.com/content/497e969e-954e-11e6-a1dc-bdf38d484582
Judges consider arguments in case to derail Brexit
Government accused of underestimating strength of challenge

news.sky.com/story/brexit-court-case-in-the-balance-for-government-10622814
Brexit court case in the balance for Government
With leading judges now facing the task of ruling on the case, Sky's Faisal Islam takes a look at the potential impact on Brexit.

Islam also tweeted a strong of thoughts:
Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam
1/10: final arguments heard. What was thought of as a marginal case, is now looking rather in the balance for the Government side
2/10: PM upped ante on case in Bham saying those behind it trying to subvert, kill, delay Brexit. Sending AG to "resist them in the courts"
3/10 indeed AG fought that case saying that PArliament had not chosen to legislate away the Governments use of Crown Prerogative...
4/10 Claimants case is A50 trigger will irreversibly destroy a range of EU-derived rights, so Parliament must decide, not Crown/Executive
5/10 Lord Chief Justice twice said "baffling" Government concedes amendments to EU treaties require Parliamentary consent but not withdrawal
6/10 Entirely possible that Government will lose case, but that's a matter for the three Judges. Either way it goes to Supreme Court
7/10 Court action/Commons rebels using same argument on scrutiny. Even before S. Court appeal High Ct victory could impact political dynamic
8/10 reverse true as well. Govt QC quoting fact that @Keir_Starmer resolution in Commons did not mention explicitly a Commons vote
9/10 If defeated in S. Court - Parliament might shape negotiating terms, pick A50 date, set other terms. Certainly March A50 unlikely/imposs.
10/10 Not impossible SC could refer aspects to ECJ. This would appear to be constitutional equivalent of breaking the space-time continuum

in response he got this:

Gabriel Rozenberg‏@rozgab
1. If our judges find against DExEU, I fear Leavers will respond with conspiratorial language about elite stitch-ups. Very dangerous.
2. Cos, if A50 case succeeds, then that means Exec wd be unlawfully stripping us of our rights by acting unilaterally.
3. No one knows yet if that’s the case. But we do have a rule of law and we need to be ready to respect the outcome either way
4. Plenty of Brexiteers seem poised to do the opposite. There’s a good chance the govt loses. Leavers may then attack legitimacy of judges.
5. We’ve seen it w/ BoE. By law, independent. Means Carney can say what he wants. Except, it seems, if he wants to discuss risks of Brexit.
6. Brexiteers talking abt G Sachs when Carney speaks, rather than engaging with his actual comments. Corrodes faith in the whole system.
7. Right now in the US, Trump, set to lose election, is claiming (absurdly) the system is rigged. Very dangerous for democracy as a whole.
8. Personally I hope judges say Parl needs to activate A50: but whether they do or don’t, it’s not a conspiracy. It’s law.
9. When the result comes, Brexiteers need to make it clear that they support our independent judiciary. To do otherwise is dangerous.

And May has already said that the courts are being used to subvert democracy...

To be fair, for white working class people (and especially for white working class men) the 50s/60s era was a high water mark. The NHS and welfare state had removed the risk of unexpected hardships; the post-war political consensus emphasised full employment which meant that jobs were plenty, including plenty of blue-collar jobs that were open to those with low-levels of education, and there was still a 'jobs for life' culture; increasing social mobility meant that well-paying white collar seamed to be increasingly within the reach of the more aspirational; post-war rebuilding had produced a huge improvement in the available housing stock; and most people still lived in homogeneous, close-knit communities where people looked out for their neighbours.

Of course there was lot bad about the era well, but much of the negative side of life was hidden out of public view. If you were the average man on the street you could happily live in denial that any of those problems existed and look back on it as a golden era.

Boris Johnson and David Davis have formed a pact to drive a “hard Brexit” agenda and rebut warnings of its economic consequences, cabinet colleagues claim.

But in other rumours, isn't Johnson said to be supporting Hammond?

Well, I expect BoJo says all sorts of things to all sorts of people. It appears to be his MO.