Yes the political compass explains it more or less.
You can put a line between group B and D. Above voted Leave (exception A). Below voted Remain (exception an additional group G - the Lexiters who occupy ground very close to the left of group C. I personally think which its debatable as to which Corbyn belongs and was part of his problem. Group C b). It splits Labour right down the middle perfectly.
Group D were the problem. They would never vote Tory as Group A who lead the Remain campaign are almost indisguishable from that. The group that are closest to them are actually UKIP – meaning that Lib Dem or Corbyn appeals to them were unlikely to appeal to them most.
More generally the sphere of ideology that Leave appealed to was more narrow than the Remain one. They largely didn’t bother with the odd Lexiters. It would have diluted the message and that group is relatively small. Remain had to target a much more diverse group of people on many different agendas.
Group A are the odd ones – a group that are driven by making pragmatic decisions on a daily basis as part of business. Otherwise above the line comes down to ideology above rational reasoned decision making based on evidence.
It also highlights Labour’s current problems. Its base is so wide it can never have a single unifying manifesto. A leader close to position D – but below the line (in the remain camp) POSSIBLY could lead the party to success. Corbyn is currently too isolated as a leader – he can not appeal to the whole party nor will he attract the attention of most of the public. It would take a revolution of bigger proportions for him to get power than the one we’ve just had as it requires such a shift in political thinking. That said group C is also characterised by the young and highly educated (I’m actually closer to C than B). Groups D, E and F are aging. So the shift could happen – in about 20 to 30 years. Though the recent political shift makes that more difficult now too due to who is going to shape the future landscape.
The Conservatives occupy a much smaller base so are more unified with their split mainly on the issue of Europe and the idea of being pragmatic about business. Watch that one develop… It could decide whether pragmatism and evidence based decision making wins out or not.
It also explains the shift from reasoned decision making to one ideologically driven – based on that imaginary line.
The political battle ground is around Group D now. UKIP want it from Labour. The Conservatives are also shifting as they want to prevent UKIP from treading on their toes or becoming too powerful. In doing so they risk alienating groups A and B. This ‘new centre ground’ is that battle area. It used to be over ground much closer to group B. Labour don't seem to have got wise enough to this yet.
As the Conservatives move towards UKIP and become more authoritarian, they risk the party though. If you thought the divide over Europe was bad before, what happens if the party line moves far from that sweet A/F spot? The Conservatives in group B get completely abandoned (many of the MPs are in this too). Labour and the Lib Dems could clean that up. The Lib Dems being better placed as Labour are too preoccupied with Group D. May is also taking the gamble that group A – the key business group – will stick with her because they are still closer politically to the Conservatives than anyone else.
That remains to be seen. It is funny how May is trying to villanise liberals so much right now. After the last election the Liberal Democrats were all but wiped out. Why? Perhaps this is because they might be a threat if she shifts too much or goes too hard on Brexit or too ideological. The Liberal Democrats share an interest in the EU/Single market AND evidence based decision making with Group A. And the group that swung it for the Conservatives at the last election were group B. The thorn in the side for the Lib Dems is that Labour are also in group B and this splits the vote of group B. At present there is no shift going on in polling, but the potential is definitely there in my opinion.
Strange times. Worrying times.