LEAVERS - update on the 'invoke A50 now' petition. I have the reply.

[Surferjet]

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My dad's a boomer (I think – he's 69) and voted Remain and is dismayed.

I read somewhere, but can't find it again, that the older older generation – 70s–90s kind of age – voted more strongly to Remain, because they can remember what it was like when the UK was more isolated.

I have read that the 80 -90s voted Remain, too. In part because they had first hand experience of the horrors of WW2 and remember the ideals behind the founding of the EU. The same with the human rights convention.

I do think it is blackly humorous that many of the faceless bureaucrats are going to be on secondment from pwc or mckinseys because the government doesn't have enough negotiators - can you even get your head around the cost of that - their £300 - £500 per hour rates, for thousands of hours of work, in what they have made quite clear is a sellers market. So just as the transfer pricing (tax off shoring) work is drying up, they can replace it with a ten year brexit fee bonanza. You couldn't make it up.

I do think it is blackly humorous that many of the faceless bureaucrats are going to be on secondment from pwc or mckinseys because the government doesn't have enough negotiators

Indeed, Figment!

www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-article-50-leaving-eu-wont-happen-after-2017-european-elections-france-germany-a7198736.html

"Having been told that leaving the EU would reduce bureaucracy and costs, there is the bizarre sight of Whitehall recruiters hiring lawyers expert in EU law on £5,000 a day and consultants from KPMG and Ernst and Young on £1,000 a day. The extra cost of negotiating Brexit is reckoned to cost £5bn – which taxpayers will have to pay for."

Is that coming out of our £350 million per week?

There is also the embarrassing issue of conflicts of interest to brush under the carpet - as well as first mover advantage, from being the first to access the knowledge. Their clients stand to benefit enormously, as usual. No 'Chinese wall' will be able to prevent a huge boost to their business.

Yes of course not ALL Boomers voted Leave, but fact is the majority of this post war generation did compared to the younger ones. And the pre Boomers, the ones that are really old and remember WW2 are mostly dead now...had there been more of them around plus their 16 year old greatgrandchildren and no distortion of facts and outright lies by the Leave campaign the outcome would easily have been for Remain. For the record I was born in 62 so I think that makes me a Boomer (just) too...

I have fond memories of when I first came to study here in 1980 of exactly how that old WW2 generation was...but I digress and not really relevant to this post. They must be turning in their graves with all the Hate campaign against the Poles who they fought bravely alongside, not to mention the Asian lives lost in that conflict.
I won't even mention the "benefit" mentality that has flourished and again been ruthlessly exploited by Leave to appeal to the lowest common denominator. It would all be so alien to that generation of brave souls...

I have fond memories of when I first came to study here in 1980 of exactly how that old WW2 generation was...but I digress and not really relevant to this post. They must be turning in their graves with all the Hate campaign against the Poles who they fought bravely alongside, not to mention the Asian lives lost in that conflict.

Tell this to my very much alive 91 year old grandmother. Her sister even married one of those Poles. Her carers are all Poles too. But they are 'different'.

I think she would leave her estate to the Daily Mail if she could.

But my 93 year old MIL who reads the Daily Mail from cover to cover and goes on and on about immigrants, voted Remain. She said she wasn't sure, but weighed up the pros and cons as best she could. It says more for her that she appears to have given it considerably more thought than Gove, Johnson, and Company.

Interesting insights into the old generation

On the consultancy costs...I wonder what our Leaver thread posters think of that and indeed whether the Daily rag and company will even mention it

Its not going to get mentioned, as with all of the anomalies of the brexit vote they will get ignored and people will continue to talk in meaningless cliches about taking back control etc.

surfer, 'whatever I say won't be good enough' is a bit poor-me, isn't it

No one is forcing me to post on this thread so I'm definitely not saying 'poor me' - but it is true, nothing I say will ever convince you that leaving the EU is actually a great thing. & I don't blame you. I'm not convinced by anything you say either.
We will never agree on this, the debate just goes around in circles ( Plus keeping up with this thread & replying to posts is really time consuming, you lot are seriously hardcore !! )

Corcoran

Thanks for taking the time to reply to my questions. I have some further questions/claifications.

I am not keen on the way politics is going in the EU with the surge in the right wing in many countries. I would like to keep us as far removed from that as possible. I feel that more and more of the politics in the EU parliament will be dominated by right wing views and that our views will become even more marginalised. I do not like the anti Islamic views in French for instance - the ban on the burka simply removes any freedom many Islamic women may have had in the past. I dislike the idea of the banning of the burkini and fining wearers. I really truly do not understand this attitude at all. I feel these types of institutional differences show just how far removed we in the UK are in our ideals from parts of the EU. I really do not understand why so many people feel more European than British.
Others have already made this point but do you understand the extent to which the Brexit vote has actually enabled the attitudes you don’t like above? When Marie Le Pen and Donald Trump are congratulating us on our vote to Brexit, does that not give you pause for thought? Or I invite you to read any UKIP-style facebook group and see how Brexit is enabling the Far Right view.

I do not feel that we would have been able to change the EU from within as some remainers think. I feel we have had many many years of trying to change things and really haven't got very far. Even with the threat of holding a referendum on leaving made very little difference in what DC managed to negotiate. How on earth would we have faired if we had voted to stay. How would the EU have treated us then? Would we have been at the back of the queue be given little or no concessions. I really feel strongly that many remainers have not fully understood that the EU will not stay the same as it is now. I don't expect countries to join in the next year or two but this was a 'once in a life time vote' so we should have been thinking about what the EU would be like in 40 years not just the immediate future. I am one of the leave voters who is old enough to remember before we joined. We have been roundly chastised for that but I think we have a much greater insight into what it can be like out of the EU.

The leave line that we haven’t got very far with the EU and we don’t change things isn’t true. I refer you to this article: www.richardcorbett.org.uk/britain-regularly-outvoted/
Anecdotally, I have friends in Technology who say we are at the forefront of shaping EU laws on say Digital Media, lawyer friends who say we are imposing UK views on Patent laws - we have a strong voice in the EU, one of the ‘big 3’ together with France and Germany and on areas like this and science, environmental protection we shape laws, ones that 27 other countries have to adhere to and impact the 50 countries we trade with. We need to stop subscribing to this mistaken notion that we are the underdog in the EU, we punch well above our weight than just 1/28th of the EU.
Do you not think our future is defined by the relationship with our geographical neighbours and do you not think we are best influencing that by having a seat at the table?

I disagree with the forming of an EU army. I feel we in the UK do more than our fair share in helping out in the trouble spots of the world. We already contribute fully to NATO unlike many. And now I discover there could have been conscription! With more and more right wing views in Europe no no no.
Others have already pointed this out. If you take nothing else from this discussion on please, please, please stop repeating this lie. Please see this article
fullfact.org/europe/hunt-eu-army/
On conscription, it’s less likely to happen within the EU than out of it because it’s viewed as a breach of EU Human Rights law.

All the above really makes me want to feel much more independent of the rest of Europe in a political sense.
When, after 2020 we no longer have to pay into the EU we will then be able to make our own decisions as to how we distribute the money and I expect areas like agriculture to have a much better tailored subsidy system that will suit our types of farming. I expect other areas like scientific research to continue to receive funding. I expect deprived areas to continue to receive funding. I expect us to keep the employment laws and environmental regulations we currently have but that there may well be some regulations that industry may not need to adhere to if not trading with the EU ( I would not expect however that any health and safety standards would be compromised).
I do not want to see us having access to the free market at the expense of no regulation on free movement.
Ok., so that is a lot of money to spend on various things that are important to you, so we need a strong economy to do this. So if we lose access to the single market, what is your thinking on what replaces it that keeps our economy (that exports 57% to the EU) Bi-lateral trade deals rarely cover services as it’s incredibly complicated, our economy comprises 78% services – how do we replace this?
Also not sure why you think 2020 will be the day we stop having to pay into the EU?

I do not feel that we will loose the financial centre that is London. The alternatives are really not tenable. Paris is a no go as the corporation tax in France is 33% as apposed to our 20%. The others are far too small and just don't have the infrastructure. Over 550k people work in the city every day. there is only a population of 700k in Frankfurt for instance and it really couldn't cope. Dublin similarly as is Luxemburg. Then of course there is the next largest financial centre in Europe but of course that is in Switzerland so not in the EU.
I think others have already posted eloquently on how simplistic your assessment on this is.
Please read this article on passporting: www.cityam.com/244237/you-need-know-passporting-post-Brexit-vote
From which I quote:
Simon Gleeson, regulatory partner at Clifford Chance, warned: "There is no prospect of UK banks maintaining a passport unless the UK agrees to, amongst other things, freedom of movement and full adoption of all present and forthcoming EU laws – this is exactly the discussion which has been being playing out in Switzerland. Thus things will have to change but it is too early to say how, or how significant the impact will be."
I would also like to point out that all clearing happens in London because it is part of the EU and is a huge driver for many jobs. For background: bruegel.org/2016/06/brexit-and-the-uks-euro-denominated-market-the-role-of-clearing-houses/
As another poster pointed out the jobs that will go will not be flashy bankers that love the London life, it will be the back office, admin, tech and other support roles that will go.

I would like to see us have much more control of negotiating trade deals with countries all over the world. I am well aware that the % of trade done with many of these countries is quite small at the moment but I am sure we could increase it, slowly but surely.
We already belong to the best trade deal in the world, the daddy of all trade deals, the one that all other trade deals aspire to be. We, as part of the EU, always have the upper hand in negotiating these trade deals because we are the bigger market and partner – how do you think we will fare as a UK only negotiating partner? How much control do you think we will have?
And are you aware of the time & expertise needed to re-negotiate the existing 50 trade deals the EU has and new ones? Is that a price worth paying to have ‘much more control’.
If you haven’t already, I urge you to watch this video by Professor Dougan, Law Lecturer at the Liverpool University:
And its follow up:

Thanks again for taking the time to post, sorry this is such a long reply, but I’m sure you appreciate this is not a short topic. Would love to hear your feedback.

Great post.

surferjet
Hope it’s ok I’ve combined all your previous posts into one.

I don't know what the average remain voter is because thankfully I don't know many in RL, but just from my online experience they seem to be mostly virtue signalling, middle class, pompous, entitled, arrogant, aggressive, & humourless. A bit like the EU.
I’m genuinely sorry that you feel this way. Of course I am a remainer but I do get that you feel that way about some of the remain people you’ve met online. I think we can agree we meet all sorts and I have certainly met many leave voters who could also be classified in that way. I hope that I can show you that we can have a pleasant if heated discussion on this, especially as you say you don’t know many remainers in RL.

Who cares now anyway, people voted leave for all sorts of reasons - no one has to justify themselves to anyone. I could have voted leave because I hate using low energy lightbulbs that the EU have forced on me. ( reason enough some might say )
I don’t agree, it’s personally important for me to understand why people voted to leave because I want to understand if what they think is wrong is actually fixable by leaving the EU. I think the leave vote is clearly driven by many, many different things but will one act of leaving the EU solve that? Which is why I want to understand how you view our future to be, ideally?

What we entered back then was very different to the EU we have now. Thankfully, enough of us had the courage to vote leave & take back control - & if you think the EU had no control over our laws, what we do, when we do it, who we let in, who we kick out, then what's the problem? You ain't gonna miss anything are you.
At it’s most simple we adhere to these laws and immigration because we want access to the single market, so for you, you don’t believe we should have access to the single market because you don’t want these laws and you want to control who we let in? BTW who we can deport is often covered by the ECHR, which we will still be part of after Brexit, so we don’t get to ‘take back control’ of that. Article on ECHR: www.liberty-human-rights.org.uk/human-rights/what-are-human-rights/human-rights-act/human-rights-act-mythbuster

& re; the British thing. Yes, people who are proud to call themselves British & don't laugh at the term 'British Values', people who aren't sheep following orders from bureaucrats they've never heard of, people who could see the EU for what it was ( a useless waste of money for most of us ) people who aren't living in the past, but have vision & hope for a better future out of the EU. They voted leave.
On the EU bureaucrats you’ve never heard of, how many of the UK bureaucrats have you heard of? I am not going to go into the structure of the EU but your comment suggests to me you think it’s undemocratic when it’s actually more democratic than the UK system. Please see this: blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/06/21/is-the-eu-really-run-by-unelected-bureaucrats/ from which I quote:
The Commission’s power to propose legislation is much weaker than it at first seems. The Commission can only propose laws in those areas where the EU governments have unanimously agreed to allow it to do under the EU treaty. Put another way, the Commission can only propose EU laws in areas where the UK government and the House of Commons has allowed it to do so.
Also, ‘proposing’ is not the same as ‘deciding’. A Commission proposal only becomes law if it is approved by both a qualified-majority in the EU Council (unanimity in many sensitive areas) and a simple majority in the European Parliament.

Not really, I said I voted for what I didn't want. What we get out of Brexit only time will tell, & depending on what paper you're reading it goes from hard Brexit to not leaving the EU at all. Press speculation will continue untill Theresa May makes her official announcement later this year.
Not sure where you got this idea that Theresa May is making her announcement later this year from? The only news I can recall seeing is that Article 50 won’t be triggered before the end of the year. The Brexit deal is so complex and covers such huge scope it will take a long time.

& please don't think I'm walking away from this. I didn't vote leave just to walk away, I want Brexit to be a success for everyone. ( as much as you can please 65 million people )
So what is Brexit success to you? I just want to understand if what you expect to happen is feasible. Understand there are many different views, I’m just interested in yours. Reading between the lines – please correct me if I’m wrong – it appears you don’t want to pay for the EU, you don’t want to obey any regs or accept freedom of movement. Based on this, we cannot maintain access to the single market. Experts and business heads have said this will materially affect our economy. Major employers like Nissan in Sunderland have said they will move if we do not maintain access. For the British values as you see them, is this a price worth paying? A significant shrinking of our economy in exchange for taking back control?
Also as the majority of our Scottish and N.Irish compatriots don’t agree with the Brexit vote there is danger we will no longer have a GB & NI, is this a price worth paying for to take back control?
Does the big rise in hate crime not worry you?

No one is forcing me to post on this thread so I'm definitely not saying 'poor me' - but it is true, nothing I say will ever convince you that leaving the EU is actually a great thing. & I don't blame you. I'm not convinced by anything you say either.
We will never agree on this, the debate just goes around in circles ( Plus keeping up with this thread & replying to posts is really time consuming, you lot are seriously hardcore !! )
I totally agree it’s hardcore! And I for one, appreciate it must be hard to feel like a lone voice in a sea of dissenters, but I for one, do appreciate the effort you’ve made right from the OP. I’m sorry to hear you don’t think we can learn from one another though because I hope you agree that we can only build a better future by working together and not by slagging each other off. (because I believe wanting to change things means being part of the same team together – hence my own desire to stay in the EU instead of leaving)

smallfox thanks! - worth it as I've just been told off by OH for being on PC and 'playing'

crossroads3
It is statements like these that I fail to understand. So 37% of the electorate voted to leave (vs. the 35% who voted to remain). 16 and 17 year olds were excluded from the vote, as were settled EU citizens in Britain and UK citizens who have lived in the EU for more than 15 years.
That 37% were not asked whether they wanted to remain members of the single market or be outside it. So on what basis can anyone say that they don't think leavers want to remain part of the single market?

Because most leavers have voted to end freedom of movement. No freedom of movement means no access to the single market. I’m an ardent remainer in case it wasn’t clear ;) so I say for me, mere access to the single market doesn’t please me either, I want to be the same paid up member of the most sophisticated trading organisation in the world that has contributed to us being the 5th biggest economy in the world that we are now and don’t want to give that up for some ephemeral notion of ‘control’.

So to me if access alone doesn't please either camp, I don't think it's the solution

surfer, it's not going round in circles: you're not engaging properly with the debate, despite being asked specific questions and to clarify specific things.

It's not as accurate to say you'll never convince me of anything as to say that I don't currently understand your reasoning, mainly because you use such generalised phrases as 'faceless bureaucrats' and 'taking orders', and, again, have so far not detailed/clarified what you mean by these terms.

Please, respond to at least some of the points I've asked about, and/or those in Tootired's recent posts. We can yet move this debate on past the circles it's got stuck in, I'm sure.

surfer. I do admire you having stayed around to engage in the debate (22 pages!) until now. But when you say nothing will change your mind despite all the evidence offered to you by people on this thread, can I at least ask you why? Is it because you don't accept the facts being presented?

I think it's probably because most of them aren't fact they are opinions presented as facts, statistic used out of context and results interpreted according to personal desires. There is a fundamental difference of opinion here I don't believe we need a supra-national layer of government others do. No amount of 'facts' will change my mind on that. Project Fear simply reinforced my desire to leave the EU I believe we will be better off; economically, socially and morally outside it. Latest economic stats reinforce my opinion miraculously it seems I won't be £4,700 worse off this year but even if I was for me it would be worth it. Surferjet has repeatedly tried to answer the question of why she voted Leave and despite repeated calumny has continued but the I am starting to think you don't want to know why you you want to shout 'but you were wrong, why can't you see why you were wrong'. Perhaps, even probably, I would feel the same if the vote had gone the other way. I was expecting it too given the pro EU bias of the media and the virtue signalling that closed down discussion before the vote. The Remain camp snatched defeat from the jaws of victory and I understand the grief and upset of that shocking event, that's how I feel about being sleepwalking into EU Superstate membership (EU head of the Olympic table my arse). This debate will endlessly circle as its a fundamental difference in belief about how and why we should be governed.

that's how I feel about being sleepwalking into EU Superstate membership (EU head of the Olympic table my arse)

There never would have been an EU superstate while each country had a veto - which the UK did and does. The superstate is a media construct.

As for the EU being head of the medal table - don't leavers feels any affinity with our nearest friends, neighbours and often family members? Genuine question.

"No amount of "facts" will change my mind on that"

How do you feel about "experts"?

My nearest neighbours are from Nigeria and my best friends are Jewish, my son in law is Indian so yes I feel lots of affinity to them. We never fielded an EU team at the Olympics. Travesty.

'Experts' there are no Economics experts only forecasters with the same track record as Astrologists. And this is a perfect illustration of why I will never understand you and you will never understand me. I have faith in myself, my opinions and my knowledge I listen to experts and disseminate. I am sad we have a Tory government but glad we don't have a Labour one but alternating between the two evils gives us a reasonably fair government we don't need to add the EU to that. It honestly staggers me that you can't see that and it obviously staggers you that I can't see your point of view

So if we end up with some sort of Norway/Swiss deal, but still need to obey EU regs, accept freedom of movement, pay contributions, but don't get the EU grants, but will be able to say 'we are not in the EU' will Leave voters be happy with that? I am excluding racists and xenophobes because nothing will please them, but the average, normal sort of Leave voter?

Ah someone criticizing the use of facts and then using the "EU superstate" argument, quite funny really.

I object to the use of "project fear" by the leave campaign supporters, it was used to shout down others prior to the vote, it was hypocritical then and is so now ( especially as you started talking about an EU superstate). A massive part of the leave campaign was based on fear, fear of immigration, of Turkey joining, of an EU army.

Your point about not needing a supra-national layer of government, is rather ironic too. You realise we will still have to abide by and implement EU regulations when we leave? That we will also have to abide by and implement those of the WTO if we choose to join that? That we are bound by international agreements such as Basel and the Paris? That we are part of international organisations like NATO and the UN?
It also shows a fundamental understanding of how the EU works, the commission can only propose laws in those areas in which the EU member states have agreed it can, it then needs to be agreed by the council and the EU parliament. These laws are not enforced upon us.

"Latest economic stats reinforce my opinion miraculously it seems I won't be £4,700 worse off this year but even if I was for me it would be worth it."

We haven't left the EU, and the unemployment statistics and consumer spending ones are encouraging, but many others are not. Let me repeat this though, we have not left the EU, we have not even begun negotiations to leave the EU and there are many economic indicators which show that things are not going to get better economically.

You can't say, well xyz hasn't happened because, as stated we haven't left the EU.

The EU bias of the media? Oh right so the Sun, The Daily Mail, The Daily Telegraph and Daily Express were not all fervently pro leave? That's the 2 highest selling tabloids and the highest selling broadsheet. I'm sure you'll make some comment about the BBC being pro remain, but its untrue.

All in all, you critique other people for using facts rather than opinion, then dive off into a diatribe which uses nothing but opinion dressed as fact.

Ironic really.