AIBU to wonder why approx 40% of Londoners voted for Brexit?

[fluffychicken]

Can any London Brexiters tell me why you voted for Brexit? I am really curious to know.

Kaija, I did my best, but it wasn't much; it was tiring.

There is plenty of evidence. Why are you so keen to deny it?

While we're on the subject of evidence, what is yours for saying most people voted out in "the fullest sense" or that most people who were "uncertain" voted remain.

My DD at the age of 11 had two grown men shout out to her in the street "Is the bush the same as the tree ginger" was that the sort of humour you think is acceptable and normal, or even funny?

Its absolutely vile and, being strnagers in the street, could possibly be considered a public order offence. However there is a very grey area between what is rudeness, offensive and what should be criminalised.

In a free society criminalising behaviour should, as far as possible, be avoided provided it doesn't actually endanger others. To go the other way is to go down the road of totalitarian Islamic states, communism or Nazism

There is no denying that there have been racist problems/attacks by some complete idiots. There will always be an element of extremists and people who have a grudge against one or any ethnic minority and blame them for all their troubles. But as a whole I think we are viewed as a very tolerant country. Please let's not tar every leave voter with the same brush. I, and any other leave voters I know are not racists. In fact I would go so far as to say we are keen on more control of movement from the EU only in that the rules should be the same no matter where in the world you come from and that we should not be discriminating against anybody. I do actually feel that the current situation could be seen as racist in that it discriminates against other nationalities that are not on the whole white causation as are most EU migrants.

"While we're on the subject of evidence, what is yours for saying most people voted out in "the fullest sense" or that most people who were "uncertain" voted remain"

Opinion polls showed that more of those intending to vote Remain were uncertain.

Secondly the 'default' was Remain (which is acknowledged by all those Remainers who are now saying we should have had a 60% bar for a Brexit). It follows that those who voted Brexit made a very positive decision to reject EU law and freedom of movement.

Thus it is clear that

What opinion polls?

ROFL. How would "EEA if possible" be any less ambiguous than the current definition of Brexit?

My turn to ROFL. We won't get membership of the EEA if we sa, we don't want to be governed by any of the rules, or have free movement of labour, or pay any contribution, but yes, we will take all the benefits.

Better stick to the EU on the same terms then. We won't pay a contribution, won't have free movement, won't be bound by the rules, but oh yes, we will have the EU grants please and our bankers will have their passporting rights. Give and take. But we'll have all the taking part please

"It follows that those who voted Brexit made a very positive decision to reject EU law and freedom of movement. "

It doesn't follow at all. You just made it up.

Kaija
As regards 'evidence' for criminal offences, I see you are another who has already accused and convicted the nameless unknown alleged offenders before the courts have been given an opportunity!

Shouldnt you be asking why you have convinced yourself these reports must be both accurate and numerous enough to be blamed on Brexit rather than just part of the low level background offences?

I'll wait and see what we hear in a few months after these cases come before the courts thanks. I very much doubt it will be more than a passing blip but may be proven wrong.

Who can say what the Brexiters voted for.?
BoJo said in his Telegraph article of 26th June:
“British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down.” and “EU citizens living in this country will have their rights fully protected, and the same goes for British citizens living in the EU.”

But John Redwood said:
"Leave won, making it clear we wish to leave the EU and have no wish to go on paying contributions or accepting freedom of movement. There is no evidence that joining the EEC or completing the single market boosted our growth, so it is difficult to believe we will lose growth when we leave."

So if two people in the same party can't agree, then how can it be said that the other 17 million agree?

Ah, I have suspected something for a while but now its confirmed. Marmaduches is someone who used to post here about "native ethnics" and indigenous populations.

Just before I leave to enjoy my holiday, I'm going to point out Marma that your attempts to critique the collection of net migration statistics also undo your own "600,000" claim.

Its also funny that you think racial and xenophobic abuse has been handed out "in jest".

Migration Watch btw might use ONS data, but they have been heavily criticised in the past for their representation of data, and the findings they have used it to come to. Essentially MW is thought of as a pressure group with an agenda, not as an independent impartial analysis.

For an example of this, its critique of the UCL/LSE studies on immigrants being net tax contributors only managed to arrive at the figure that they were not by including public goods into the "services" these immigrants benefited from the in UK. But we leave out these costs when we analyse whether UK citizens are net contributors to the economy, so in effect it was unfair.

Your arguments are facile, and disingenuous. You quote figures and stats, whilst making appeals to authority on their usage, yet the critique the same source of the data that you are using when it fits your agenda. You make appeals to authority when it suits, yet question the veracity of any authority that again doesn't happen to fit your agenda.

"As we now stand the choice was simple most people voted OUT in the fullest sense"

ROFL I'd advise you not to speak for anyone else, the leave vote was a disparate group all of whom had different interests, but you cannot say that most people voted a certain way at all. You can't even say a majority did, because here's the rub, leave doesn't have an overwhelming majority.

Frankly your idea that the EU will collapse is laughable.

"but it should be on our terms"

See this is the thing that you don't understand, there are two sides in every relationship, the UK will get the terms it can, not those that it wants, those that others are willing to offer and the UK will agree. The same goes with your points about EU laws, if we have a trade agreement with the EU there will be laws of theirs that we have to follow in order to be able to export there, we will already have to follow international agreements such as Basel III and the Paris pollution agreement on climate change.

" If we cannot get this, then we must pay the tariffs, and we must resort to protectionism in return."

Certainly demonstrates your lack of understanding of international trade, if we don't get the agreement we want with the EU and are forced to use WTO trading rules, we will only be able to impose WTO tariffs, within the WTO you must offer every member the same deal, so if we put tariffs on EU goods they will have to go on every other countries too!

Finally outside of the EU without a trading agreement on services you'd see a massive fall in UK exports, large damage inflicted on the economy.

You views on Europe are not based on any real understanding but a level of xenophobia and ignorance about the modern world .You mistake your craven nationalistic idea that the UK is better and more important than the rest of the EU for patriotism, when in fact it is nationalism ( which might explain why you are so keen on the referendum method) and your attempts to dismiss the reports of racist attacks are disgusting.

Consequently, I have no more time to deal with your arguments, I was doing so because I thought you should be challenged, but I now see there was no need. You are not an intellectual challenge, your poor use of data ( how funny critiquing the method used to collect the data that you use to back your points),fallacies and flawed arguments demonstrates that merely a typer of hyperbolic statements which I can see even the leave supporters on here don't back.

Time for beach and a beer ( In europe)

"We won't get membership of the EEA if we sa, we don't want to be governed by any of the rules, or have free movement of labour, or pay any contribution, but yes, we will take all the benefits."

I wouldnt like to second guess Juncker and Merkel, but there can be little doubt that a firm determination to fight for Britain and a willingness to walk away is more likely to win a good deal than just accepting the first offer as Remain supporters would have us do. There have already been talk of temporary concessions on Freedom of movement which wer not on the table before Brexit.

Everything is negotiable..

Some figures:

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/brexit-hate-crime-racism-immigration-eu-referendum-result-what-it-means-eurospectic-areas-a7165056.html

However, many more incidents won't even have been reported to the police - we had two of these at my workplace on 27th June against EU staff members, I and my family have witnessed more on public transport, and have heard of many more

You can pretend it's not happening if it suits you but it is a bit boring to inflict this infantile level of denial on the rest of us.

I had almost forgotten about Boris Johnson's surreal post-Brexit Telegraph article, Peregrina.

Must have been when he was still thinking the whole thing was a nightmare he could wake up from if he just reasserted his pre-Feb 16 pro-EU stance...

I think, when the negotiations start, the terms we had in the EU will start to look very good. Ifs funnny that people like Marma think that the EU has nothing to gain from letting the Brits shoot themselves in the foot over terms. For example, a large scale move of the baking industry into the EU would certainly be of benefit to them.

Trade with the UK makes up 3% of EU GDP, but EU trade is 15% of UK GDP, and 44% of direct exports, and with trade agreements with others it makes up 59%.

In comparison, the BRICS countries make up 5% combined.

but there can be little doubt that a firm determination to fight for Britain

Ha, ha. We want to have our cake and eat it. Oh and because you have just made a cake, you need us to eat it for you. Otherwise you might eat it yourself and that wouldn't be fair.

Brexiteer confusion:

www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexiteers-economics-crash-pound-trade-deals-incoherent-a7189901.html

if we don't get the agreement we want with the EU and are forced to use WTO trading rules, we will only be able to impose WTO tariffs, within the WTO you must offer every member the same deal, so if we put tariffs on EU goods they will have to go on every other countries too!

After exit, WTO rules would apply which would allow the UK to decide the level of our own tariffs on imports.The EU would apply its standard external tariff rates to imports from the UK but would not be allowed to discriminate by charging higher rates to the UK than to other non-EU countries.

The UK would apply its standard external tariffs to imports from the EU. The UK would also be free to reduce them reducing the costs of many imports. Currently the UK is having to impose EU tariffs on non EU imports to protect many weak and archaic EU industries which have already gone bust in the UK, so we are effectively subsidising such businesses as the Italian shoe making industry.
We could set tariffs at levels which suit our own circumstances outside the EEA.

I am not pretending to be an economist but its very clear there are pros and cons and we could very well gain many economic benefits from being out.

The hardcore Remainers want to stay in for political reasons and for reasons of economic caution rather than rationalism, as the future economically is really an unknown either way.

I believe we would have to apply to the WTO, so would have to seek agreement with 162 countries, not 27/31.

The problem with WTO rules is that we'd have to negotiate a deal with the WTO first, we don't just "revert" to those deals, you have to agree what you are going to put tariffs on, even things that you are going to subsidise etc. The DG of the WTO made that clear.

Unless we offer preferential trade deals independently, through the WTO all members must be offered the same conditions.

Either way the economic impact of this would be enormous, and most likely detrimental to the UK.

Kaija
Citing the Indie in support of your attack on Brexiters is on a par with citing the Daily Mail for an attack on Remainers.

Smallfox
"You quote figures and stats, whilst making appeals to authority on their usage, yet the critique the same source of the data that you are using"

Shocking hypocrisy that you criticize me for questioning the reliability of the ONS data I used, when they offer the only data you would find acceptable.
Indeed for all the dubiousness of the ONS migration data, and for all the shed loads of anecdotal evidence suggesting them to be conservative estimates of immigration, they are still all we have got.

More dishonest is that you question the ONS 600K gross immigration figure, which I have never denied is EU and non EU, but remember many non EU immigrants arrive here via the EU too either through gaining EU citizenship first, or even through gaining EU residency.

I wouldn't call it an attack, and it of course makes no difference where the article was published. I think it is a useful assessment of the self-contradictory attitudes to our relationship with the EU from those keen to forge ahead with Brexit. We need to be prepared to look at this head on at this point.

Nationalities minority ethnics on my street that I know of: Pakistani, Indian, Polish, Chinese, Scottish, American, Philippino, Italian, Spanish, English, Brazilian, Greek, French...

You would love it marmaduchess . Sorry but I think your ship might have sailed.

(And minority ethnics otherwise knows as humans, should have had this next to it).

To trade on WTO rules, first we have to renegotiate our entire trade portfolio, as our position is based on EU membership. Only then can we start setting up new trade deals. Even if we keep mostly the same tariffs as we had in the EU, still subsidies, quotas and access to markets for services will have to be negotiated. Our trade schedules then have to be agreed by other WTO members. All this will take years.

WTO analysis indicates that in the interim between leaving EU preferential tariffs and negotiating new ones, the price increase on imports alone will cost UK consumers £9 billion a year.