Westministenders Continues. The one where are being grateful for having a Boris rather than a Trump and UKIP show Labour how it’s done.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD TWELVE

The calm of the eye of the storm is upon us. The signs are there that more trouble is ahead. What now for Brexit, the blank cheque for our future?

May’s honeymoon can only last the Summer, until she has to do some proper graft. Her Cabinet have all gone on holiday and to swat up on their new specialised subject, and by god have they got some homework to do.

Well, all of them apart from Liam Fox, who has bugger all to do for some time.

Johnson needs to… well we all know what Boris needs to do. Bend over and take it like a good boy.

Davies needs to learn the entire structure and workings of the EU and its variations of trade agreements and relationships with other nations. Juncker has the FUKD in his little black book of people who have crossed him (yes, he actually has one of these) and has put Brit Hating Barnier in charge of the EU Brexit team. Davies must somehow hold his own against this experienced EU hardnut. In French. Oh and find a permanent office.

What do the others need to learn? Hammond - how to perform a bloody miracle. Patel - it is illegal to use foreign aid as a leverage for trade deals. Leadsom – er everything? Rudd – how to do bigger assault on liberty and human rights than her mentor. Fallon – how we will afford to defend ourselves with pitch forks, especially if we can’t use Trident for some reason and it becomes necessary. Our enemy; Russia? North Korea? Turkey? Isis? Na. Trump if he wins.

Brexit is now officially in the hands Whitehall’s unbelievers. Those overstretched officials who are already saying there is a gap in their capacity to deliver what Parliament wants without additional the burden of Brexit. These discredited experts are left wondering if their challenge is, in reality, Mission Impossible, and this is made worse by the pressure that just about every senior Brexiteer seems to say is ‘easy’ despite all the mounting evidence to the contrary. Which is cold comfort to everyone who voted – Remain or Leave alike.

We still don’t even know what Brexit is. It is still something which has no coherent ideology and no clear set of prescriptions for what ailes us as a society. It is a bundle of contradictions, united chiefly by what, and who, it opposes. Whatever the problem, Brexit can fix it. Whatever the threat, internal or external, Brexit can vanquish it, and it is unnecessary for Brexiteers to explain how.

May’s plan? Some say that she is the Dear Leader, some say she is an evil genius with Larry the Cat on her lap waiting for the Brexiteer Boys to fuck it up so we can Remain, some say she is blessed by the Ghost of Thatcher but we know her as The PM. –Sorry I’ve been itching to make the May/Hammond Top Gear gag for several weeks— The truth is, we just don't know yet.

Plus anything Brexit related about the Labour and UKIP leadership and the rest of the world thrown in to boot.

This is the quest for the answers that everyone wants and trying to keep an eye on those politicians and accountability (both here and abroad in the era of post-fact politics in the trail of Brexit). There maybe no single ‘truth’ but there sure as hell is a lot of bullshit to wade through. Get your wellies out, and plough on through with us.

No experience necessary. Sense of humour required.

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Brexit Fall Out Timetable
Labour Hustings Nottinghamshire: Wednesday 17th August
Labour Hustings Birmingham: Thursday 18th August.
Labour Hustings Glasgow: Thursday 25th August.
Labour Hustings London: Thursday 1st September
UKIP Leadership Result: 15th September
Labour Leadership Result: Saturday 24th September
The Department for Exiting the European Union first question sessions in Parliament: Thursday 20th October
High Court hearing on a50: due 'no earlier than the third week in October'
US Presidential Election: 8th November
French Presidential Election 1st Round: 23 April 2017
French Presidential Election 2nd Round: 7th May 2017
German Federal Election: Between 27 August and 22 October 2017

Last thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2690632-Westminstenders-Continues-Boris-is-having-a-bad-week-Corbyn-resists-Its-gonna-be-a-long-summer?pg=1

Radio 4 had a Brexit advocate on the radio earlier and the topic of the Single Market was raised. For the first time I can recall in an interview with a Brexiteer the interviewer asked what he meant by "access to" the Single Market. This brought out many words, the content of which didn't seem to go further than "access to the Single Market means access to the Single Market".

I continue to be surprised by the extent to which there is resistance to defining any of the goals of this entire mess. What calamity are they afraid of triggering if they actually make clear what they want?

I don't know about the details for Iceland and Liechtenstein, but Norway's and Switzerland's deals with the EU differ, so I imagine that they are all bespoke?

Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 20m20 minutes ago
Ouch. Boris given the final slot on Sunday at Tory conference, after Theresa's big Brexit speech. Conference darling getting buried.

OK, maybe Johnson isn't top dog after all.

What calamity are they afraid of triggering if they actually make clear what they want?

People who voted for 'Brexit' being incredibly pissed off that whatever the Government is proposing does not align precisely with their own personal unicorn, which they were able to project onto their Leave vote because neither of the Leave campaigns defined anything precisely, which will probably then cause the glorious return of Farage and Banks and a resurgence in Ukip's polling numbers, which had been trending downwards nicely.

I think they are all bespoke Peregrina but I also think the EU has previously said it didn't want any more bespoke deals. I also don't think any of the existing ones are quite so unicorn driven as it would appear that we are expecting.

Norway Iceland and leitchenstein all are members of EFTA as is Switzerland but with bespoke tweaks. By saying we're not going to go for one of these off the shelf solutions, the U.K. will be needing every day of the post article 50 2 years and probably a whole lot longer.

I also thought it was interesting on the 6o clock news tonight that Brexit doesn't need s vote in parliament. It will be interesting to see if the courts agree.

I also don't envy Teresa may. Brexit, plus more NHS strikes, plus looming energy crisis and a very unhappy EDF who has currently been bankrolled to manage the decommissioning of the U.K. Nuclear power stations over the next X years and are grumbling loudly because of Hinkley.

I also don't envy Teresa may.

Theresa May could have put forward many more robust arguments when the legislation to hold the Referendum was being passed - as could a good many other MPs. Now that the country is in a mess, primarily because of the stupidity of her own party, let her get on with it I say.

I am even more depressed by the news coming out about the Cabinet meeting today. E.g. I cannot see how we remain “one of the great trading nations in the world”. Another person hankering after the old days of Empire.

I was depressed too, but then I wondered if it's all just a smokescreen to show that Theresa May is "tough" on Brexit. To keep the hard Brexiters quiet, while she negotiates a softer deal. Also preparing public opinion for a tradeoff between immigration and the economy. The whole thing feels so contrived.

Newsnight reckons Davis, Johnson and fox might still hate each other but they are working together and starting to get some semblance of a cohesive plan.

Really sounds like the single market is not going to be a high priority, and there's a suspicion Hammond might downplay financial services passporting and aim for an innovative deal.

This does of course mean that we'll need to have seriously shit-hot negotiators. The buzzword there is 'equivalence' and is how Japan and Canada sell financial services into the EU. Banks might prefer this as it would allow them to try to get rid of the bonus cap.

Have we got any shit-hot negotiators? I haven't been impressed by the Parliamentary rabble that we have, but I assume that these negotiators would be 'unelected bureaucrats'?

Well, the Electoral Reform Society's report on the Referendum is pretty damning.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37238641

"The EU referendum campaign was dogged by "glaring democratic deficiencies" with voters turned off by big name politicians and negative campaigning, a report says.

The Electoral Reform Society attacked both sides of the referendum campaign, saying people felt "ill-informed" by the "dire" debate.
...
It called for a "root and branch" review of the way referendums are run."

Like more than one poster on this forum, it contrasts the Brexit reference with the Scottish IndyRef.

"The society said the EU debate was in "stark contract" to the 2014 referendum on Scottish independence, which it said had featured a "vibrant, well-informed, grassroots conversation that left a lasting legacy of on-going public participation in politics and public life"."

Same story in the Grauniad www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/01/electoral-reform-campaigners-slam-dire-eu-referendum-debate
And the Indy www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-watchdog-campaigns-electoral-reform-society-a7218571.html

It's all poking in the dark though. Without a hint of what the EU may want or may have established as lines in the sand, even coming to a cohesive stance is not guaranteed to get anyone anywhere.

No matter what anyone might hope wrt passporting, saving the financial services industry, saving the City, I think we may all take it as given that there are other places in the EU that are courting Asian financial titans and even American players in hopes of attracting business.

I think in this context we may expect Ireland to sweeten Apple's pill, fight the EU tax bill or decide to pay a portion, just to show international business that Ireland is a friendly place that welcomes them. There are grumblings in Ireland about corporations having comfy tax arrangements of course, but the two major parties are both pro business and maybe this will be managed without too much uproar.

I read that Ireland is planning to appeal the decision that the tax breaks for business in Ireland amount to state aid. By siding with the businesses rather than the commission, Ireland seems to be following through on its pro- business policy which is pretty attractive to outside Europe investors.

Our shit hot negotiators are coming from the private sector, just as soon as they've finished advising their existing clients. Deloitte and dechert are positioning themselves at the moment.

I have just posted a link to the Electoral Reform Societies comments on one of the other threads - the 'Lies on Both Sides' one. I was astonished to see that the ERS was given such publicity.

I hope it starts to send a message to TM that 'Brexit means Brexit' is meaningless waffle, and that she has now got the task of beginning to sort out the mess that the Tory party has made, and that ignoring huge swathes of the electorate's opinion is not the way to do it.

I thought this article on Theresa May's intentions was quite interesting: www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/31/theresa-may-brexiteers-conservative-right-prime-minister

The Guardian is asking for people's views on what shape they'd like Brexit to take or not take, if anyone would like to contribute (it stops at 2pm).

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/live/2016/sep/01/how-should-theresa-may-deliver-brexit-live-debate?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

But Fawful, Brexit means Brexit That's all we need to know!

David Davis is in Belfast today for discussions. He says there will be no hard border reintroduced: www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/sep/01/brexit-secretary-no-return-to-hard-border-in-ireland

Interestingly, in the article (which is from the Belfast Telegraph), he says he is already working with the Irish government. If that is indeed true, it shows that at least some Brexit discussions are taking place prior to a50.

I particularly noted Martin Belam's point about passports on the Guardian discussion mentioned by Fawful. I imagine that most of the two years post Art. 50 will be taken up with a whole range of discussions of similar nature.

There will be no chance of getting to any discussions of what future trade agreements we might wish for. I do envisage a long haul of something like 10 years before things are settled. I wasn't born until the 1950s but it took the country I would say at least 10, if not 15 years to get on its feet again after the War, and I would be surprised if this was any different.

Oh Peregrina I really don't think you can compare Britain's recover from the 2nd World War to Brexit! I didn't know we had been boomed, had to start all over again with so much infrastructure decimated, owed a huge amount of money to other countries and had hundreds of thousands of service men and women returning home with no jobs plus rationing and massive food shortages!

In other news the PMI is above its pre Brexit level and the £ is having a good day. Was predicting 1.25 against the Euro by Christmas over breakfast but I think I may well be too late to put my money where my mouth is.

Bathroom there are always talks and talks which is why the EU are already excluding us from all real decision making while including us in all "official" meetings. I guess it is also a moot point whether the UK / Irish border is primarily a decision for UK and Ireland and only tangentially related to the EU and post art 50 negotiations.

On the passports - surely it isn't EU standards on data we'd need to adhere to, it's the ICAO? This means that our passports are machine-readable in other countries, and our border controls can read the passports of other countries who also adhere to these standards? Do the EU countries have additional requirements above these?

I imagine some law would be passed to allow holders of old style EU passports to hold onto them until they expired but say that they were no longer entitled to move freely within the EU, from a certain date. Possibly notices would be put up at entry points to the EU. Would we go back to having our passports stamped?

Still, I imagine that the two years will be spent ploughing through details.

A huge amount of money is owed, unemployment is really high in many regions, industry while not bombed might as well have been in many regions...

The UK's credit rating took a hit, meaning money is more expensive. Sterling may not be as attractive as a reserve currency as it once was.

If the plug is pulled on the City, tax revenues will fall.

I think this may actually be a worse situation than that of 1946 because of general low growth.

Very different challenges too - most obviously the automation of jobs - not just low skilled jobs, but any role that involves a substantial 'routine' element. In 1946, full employment was a realistic objective. In 2016, economists on both sides of the political spectrum are even starting to see the 'citizens wage' as a sensible long term objective, to sustain consumer demand.