Westministenders Continues. The one where are being grateful for having a Boris rather than a Trump and UKIP show Labour how it’s done.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD TWELVE

The calm of the eye of the storm is upon us. The signs are there that more trouble is ahead. What now for Brexit, the blank cheque for our future?

May’s honeymoon can only last the Summer, until she has to do some proper graft. Her Cabinet have all gone on holiday and to swat up on their new specialised subject, and by god have they got some homework to do.

Well, all of them apart from Liam Fox, who has bugger all to do for some time.

Johnson needs to… well we all know what Boris needs to do. Bend over and take it like a good boy.

Davies needs to learn the entire structure and workings of the EU and its variations of trade agreements and relationships with other nations. Juncker has the FUKD in his little black book of people who have crossed him (yes, he actually has one of these) and has put Brit Hating Barnier in charge of the EU Brexit team. Davies must somehow hold his own against this experienced EU hardnut. In French. Oh and find a permanent office.

What do the others need to learn? Hammond - how to perform a bloody miracle. Patel - it is illegal to use foreign aid as a leverage for trade deals. Leadsom – er everything? Rudd – how to do bigger assault on liberty and human rights than her mentor. Fallon – how we will afford to defend ourselves with pitch forks, especially if we can’t use Trident for some reason and it becomes necessary. Our enemy; Russia? North Korea? Turkey? Isis? Na. Trump if he wins.

Brexit is now officially in the hands Whitehall’s unbelievers. Those overstretched officials who are already saying there is a gap in their capacity to deliver what Parliament wants without additional the burden of Brexit. These discredited experts are left wondering if their challenge is, in reality, Mission Impossible, and this is made worse by the pressure that just about every senior Brexiteer seems to say is ‘easy’ despite all the mounting evidence to the contrary. Which is cold comfort to everyone who voted – Remain or Leave alike.

We still don’t even know what Brexit is. It is still something which has no coherent ideology and no clear set of prescriptions for what ailes us as a society. It is a bundle of contradictions, united chiefly by what, and who, it opposes. Whatever the problem, Brexit can fix it. Whatever the threat, internal or external, Brexit can vanquish it, and it is unnecessary for Brexiteers to explain how.

May’s plan? Some say that she is the Dear Leader, some say she is an evil genius with Larry the Cat on her lap waiting for the Brexiteer Boys to fuck it up so we can Remain, some say she is blessed by the Ghost of Thatcher but we know her as The PM. –Sorry I’ve been itching to make the May/Hammond Top Gear gag for several weeks— The truth is, we just don't know yet.

Plus anything Brexit related about the Labour and UKIP leadership and the rest of the world thrown in to boot.

This is the quest for the answers that everyone wants and trying to keep an eye on those politicians and accountability (both here and abroad in the era of post-fact politics in the trail of Brexit). There maybe no single ‘truth’ but there sure as hell is a lot of bullshit to wade through. Get your wellies out, and plough on through with us.

No experience necessary. Sense of humour required.

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Brexit Fall Out Timetable
Labour Hustings Nottinghamshire: Wednesday 17th August
Labour Hustings Birmingham: Thursday 18th August.
Labour Hustings Glasgow: Thursday 25th August.
Labour Hustings London: Thursday 1st September
UKIP Leadership Result: 15th September
Labour Leadership Result: Saturday 24th September
The Department for Exiting the European Union first question sessions in Parliament: Thursday 20th October
High Court hearing on a50: due 'no earlier than the third week in October'
US Presidential Election: 8th November
French Presidential Election 1st Round: 23 April 2017
French Presidential Election 2nd Round: 7th May 2017
German Federal Election: Between 27 August and 22 October 2017

Last thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2690632-Westminstenders-Continues-Boris-is-having-a-bad-week-Corbyn-resists-Its-gonna-be-a-long-summer?pg=1

I think that is the only sensible way to deal with the interweaving laws.

Even the fledgling American states incorporated the common law (Whig/Camden) and took it from there with the major departure of the written constitution, which is positive law. However the common law provides the language of the Constitution and the philosophical legacy on which it draws.

Phillip Hammond thinks he's come up with the mother of all unicorn deals

I kind of understand TM getting all the Cabinet together with their Brexit wish-lists, it makes sense to get everyone together and see if they can come up with one final wishlist that they can then move forward with. If you get everyone there to agree to it, in theory you reduce their opportunity to not support it once it becomes clear that you probably aren't going to get 90% of what you want.

Germany's Vice-chancellor warns that Brexit 'may send EU down the drain'.

"Sigmar Gabriel said the EU would go "down the drain" if other states followed Britain's lead and that the UK could not keep the "nice things" about Europe while taking no responsibility."

This, of course, is exactly what the most ardent of the Eurosceptics would dearly love to see.

It's a good thing that 'Mutti' Merkel takes a cautious approach.

The Eurosceptics may well love it and will only hear "the EU will fail" and not the "if Brexit is handled badly"

This is exactly why the "soft Brexit-plus" deal of unicorns and everlasting cake is not an option. It is exactly what would encourage other countries to "leave" and lead to the breakdown on the EU.

Interesting what was said about TTIP. I know many Leave voters who voted that way because of their fear of TTIP - not realising that the greater risk of the provisions within the agreement was from our own government

I noted also the comments made about the US not liking the deal Canada had made with the EU, with many Eurosceptics seeing that as the preferred kind of deal for UK/EU relationships.

Would upsetting the US lead to their negotiating harsher terms when dealing with the UK? The Eurosceptics are desperate to increase US/UK trade. Seems like another set of negotiations where we want to have our cake and eat it.

About potential collapse of TTIP

www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/08/28/eus-ttip-trade-deal-with-the-us-has-collapsed-says-germany/

My understanding is that both Clinton and Trump were opposed to TTIP before the Brexit vote. Given the loss of the UK consumer from the EU negotiating position talk of the deal collapsing seems merely to be stating the blindingly obvious.

I will also be very surprised if CETA ever gets ratified. The more likely outcome, from my pov, would be for the UK and Canada to do a bilateral deal based on CETA but excluding the rest of the EU.

I see that Smith is claiming "people power" stopped TTIP

No, Germany and France did. No thanks to the UK.

"is DD's rush based around his desire to sign TTIP whilst Obama is still President, on the basis that the new President might not want to?"

There is only five months left before the next president is sworn in, so there is no prospect of TTIP going through under Obama.

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-article-50-eu-referendum-uk-will-never-leave-says-top-academic-a7214926.html

Professor says 'Britain will never leave the EU because ...the leading Brexiteers did not realise the full complexity of the process', and 'May's talk of Brexit is gobbledygook'.

Certainly May's mantra of Brexit means Brexit, is utterly mindless, but I find it very difficult to see how she can reconcile the competing demands. I imagine some sort of EEA minus deal will be struck.

Which most of us would think was a complete waste of time and effort, but we will still keep our EHIC cards and go through the EU gate at the airport. So we will still be able to go to the Costas and the Balearics and get bladdered.

OTOH Joe Stiglitz, a slighter older and more Worldly wise, fellow Labour supporting US academic was on the Today programme this morning saying the exact opposite to Thom Brooks (this looks like internal LP OS vs JC positioning to me).

Stiglitz envisages the UK / EU relationship ending up as similar to the US / Canada.

On TM I assume she and her cabinet, far from splitting into factions, are adopting different positions so that they can see how they are received in Europe and at home in order to increase their negotiating knowledge and therefore strength.

Any of you who subscribe to the FT can see this article by David Allen Green (I can't):

'Brexit needs more than political will - it needs to be capable of happening.'

He usually makes sense.

Hester That's what someone said on one of the threads ages ago: there needs to be the Will and there needs to be the Capacity.

Even if the May government now has the Will, and we assume that a number of Tory Remainers fall in like sheep because the Tory party is more important than the good of the country and decide that Leave is OK with them too, there is still the lack of Capacity. A gap which can't be plugged quickly, or if plugged quickly, will be with inexperienced staff.

I agree Peregrina. But how much damage and uncertainty will the country suffer, while they flounder about for years trying to do it?

BTW I just googled for the article, and got a tinyurl link, which gave the whole article. No nonsense of being told that I had to pay, or answer a series of questions before I accessed the article.

What I don't know, is how many in Parliament are, if you like, 'Hard Remainers' or 'on balance Remainers', as May herself, and would then turn to Leave. If May won, and got her majority, she would need to be sure that new MPs had been selected for their Leave credentials, to make sure that the vote for Leave was tipped in her favour.

I don't know that there are many 'hard remainers' in the sense that anyone thinks the EU is an amazing creature. I think that most are simply pragmatic.

Been away for the bank holiday weekend at the last minute so no updates over the weekend, and I have some catching up to do.

Everything I've read so far, does seem to be shaping up as the 'off the cliff' option looking like the leverage.

Re: a50 being triggered without a parliamentary vote. Question: how can they say that without the court case having gone through. Answer: they can't. Question: So why make a point of leaking it through the Telegraph? Answer: Because they have to make May look strong and in control and/or they think they will loose the court case and its to pre-empt that and shape public opinion prior to that to May's favour amongst Brexiteers.

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-article-50-eu-referendum-uk-will-never-leave-says-top-academic-a7214926.html
Top academic says we will have to have second EU ref.

www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/78501/theresa-may-no-second-referendum-or-general-election
Strangely this is also on politics home today too. Saying exactly the opposite about a second referendum.

It sounds like May is not happy at even the mere suggestion.

blogs.ft.com/david-allen-green/2016/08/30/brexit-requires-more-than-political-will-it-needs-to-be-capable-of-happening/
David Allen Green piece for the FT. Always worth reading. (as the comments will be too I'm sure).

Jim Waterson Verified account @jimwaterson
Corbyn says he's had "long discussions with many people on Bernie Sanders' campaign" and is very impressed with how they took on Clinton.

Sam Jenkinson ‏@samueljenkinson
@jimwaterson but they lost? By a lot.....

Jim Pickard ‏@PickardJE
Corbyn suggests that some MPs are "reluctant" to turn on their computers because they "don't know how to." #DigitalDemocracy

I think there is truth in this last remark. And May going all traditional in her procedures only serve to make this look worse.

Jim Pickard @PickardJE
YouGov:
Corbyn only ahead with 18-24 year olds
Over-65s (who vote) prefer May by 72% to 8%

Thanks Peregrina, googling the whole title worked for me too.
(Brexit requires more than political will - it needs to be capable of happening.)

It's slating about progress so far, and pessimistic about potential progress.

Thanks for the tip. It's good but only reiterates what these threads have been saying all along.

Yes Swedish. We knew it before the 'experts'! The amount of knowledge and insight on this thread - we should be in charge!

I think I am getting credit where it's not due. I think it was Red who told me how to get the articles without going through the paywall.

The comments to the article are very sensible. Most comments in other papers usually descend into the usual slanging match.

I suspect one or two of the new "experts" are on here fishing for ideas and testing reactions.

Yes Swedish

YouGov ‏@YouGov
Post- Brexit 45% of people would like to return to imperial measurements for produce

How incredibly useful. I never learnt imperial. What with being under 40.

Jim Pickard ‏@PickardJE
Jim Pickard Retweeted Telegraph Politics
"There are more people who've walked on the Moon than there are Labour MPs in East, South-East & South-West England"
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/30/history-shows-that-huge-political-parties-can-die-why-should-lab/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
The Telegraph think there is a 'great political realignment' coming and Labour are at risk.

So how does that work with the Conservatives having so few members and both it and UKIP having considerably older demographics?

politicalscrapbook.net/2016/08/this-brexit-speech-by-a-british-high-commissioner-shows-how-clueless-they-are-about-what-to-do/
The BEST Brexit speech EVVVVEERRRRRRR

Steve Peers @StevePeers
"Nice country you have there, France. It'd be a shame if someone blew it up."
Seriously? This is what we've become?

Sorry, here is the second picture. Leaky files