Westministenders Continues. The one where are being grateful for having a Boris rather than a Trump and UKIP show Labour how it’s done.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD TWELVE

The calm of the eye of the storm is upon us. The signs are there that more trouble is ahead. What now for Brexit, the blank cheque for our future?

May’s honeymoon can only last the Summer, until she has to do some proper graft. Her Cabinet have all gone on holiday and to swat up on their new specialised subject, and by god have they got some homework to do.

Well, all of them apart from Liam Fox, who has bugger all to do for some time.

Johnson needs to… well we all know what Boris needs to do. Bend over and take it like a good boy.

Davies needs to learn the entire structure and workings of the EU and its variations of trade agreements and relationships with other nations. Juncker has the FUKD in his little black book of people who have crossed him (yes, he actually has one of these) and has put Brit Hating Barnier in charge of the EU Brexit team. Davies must somehow hold his own against this experienced EU hardnut. In French. Oh and find a permanent office.

What do the others need to learn? Hammond - how to perform a bloody miracle. Patel - it is illegal to use foreign aid as a leverage for trade deals. Leadsom – er everything? Rudd – how to do bigger assault on liberty and human rights than her mentor. Fallon – how we will afford to defend ourselves with pitch forks, especially if we can’t use Trident for some reason and it becomes necessary. Our enemy; Russia? North Korea? Turkey? Isis? Na. Trump if he wins.

Brexit is now officially in the hands Whitehall’s unbelievers. Those overstretched officials who are already saying there is a gap in their capacity to deliver what Parliament wants without additional the burden of Brexit. These discredited experts are left wondering if their challenge is, in reality, Mission Impossible, and this is made worse by the pressure that just about every senior Brexiteer seems to say is ‘easy’ despite all the mounting evidence to the contrary. Which is cold comfort to everyone who voted – Remain or Leave alike.

We still don’t even know what Brexit is. It is still something which has no coherent ideology and no clear set of prescriptions for what ailes us as a society. It is a bundle of contradictions, united chiefly by what, and who, it opposes. Whatever the problem, Brexit can fix it. Whatever the threat, internal or external, Brexit can vanquish it, and it is unnecessary for Brexiteers to explain how.

May’s plan? Some say that she is the Dear Leader, some say she is an evil genius with Larry the Cat on her lap waiting for the Brexiteer Boys to fuck it up so we can Remain, some say she is blessed by the Ghost of Thatcher but we know her as The PM. –Sorry I’ve been itching to make the May/Hammond Top Gear gag for several weeks— The truth is, we just don't know yet.

Plus anything Brexit related about the Labour and UKIP leadership and the rest of the world thrown in to boot.

This is the quest for the answers that everyone wants and trying to keep an eye on those politicians and accountability (both here and abroad in the era of post-fact politics in the trail of Brexit). There maybe no single ‘truth’ but there sure as hell is a lot of bullshit to wade through. Get your wellies out, and plough on through with us.

No experience necessary. Sense of humour required.

-------------------------

Brexit Fall Out Timetable
Labour Hustings Nottinghamshire: Wednesday 17th August
Labour Hustings Birmingham: Thursday 18th August.
Labour Hustings Glasgow: Thursday 25th August.
Labour Hustings London: Thursday 1st September
UKIP Leadership Result: 15th September
Labour Leadership Result: Saturday 24th September
The Department for Exiting the European Union first question sessions in Parliament: Thursday 20th October
High Court hearing on a50: due 'no earlier than the third week in October'
US Presidential Election: 8th November
French Presidential Election 1st Round: 23 April 2017
French Presidential Election 2nd Round: 7th May 2017
German Federal Election: Between 27 August and 22 October 2017

Last thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2690632-Westminstenders-Continues-Boris-is-having-a-bad-week-Corbyn-resists-Its-gonna-be-a-long-summer?pg=1

Well, Gisela, as an EU citizen married to (or widow of?) a British citizen and a leading member of the Leave campaign, and an MP, I would like to ask you why you didn't bring this issue up in Parliament beforehand? When you might have been able to build some safeguards into the Referendum process.

"This is the right thing to do and what the Leave campaign promised all along."
The Official Leave campaign may have thought this, but they kept quiet about it, allowing Farage and others to make it a Referendum about immigration, with a good number expecting immigration to be cut back severely.

But Peregrina how on earth do you expect Gisela Stuart to bring that up in parliament? Take pot luck and put her name down for a question in PM's questions? What sort of answer do you think she would have got from DC! As far as I know you can't just ask random questions in the house of commons.

She could have done a great deal to safeguard the rights of EU citizens here by not campaigning to Leave. What the fuck did she think would happen.

You have to be a UK citizen to be an MP so she's not actually an EU citizen.
Kaija - She, as well as all the leave camp always said that current EU citizens should stay so why wouldn't she follow her own convictions.
She is involved with the actual decisions on what will happen to EU citizens so that's what the fuck she thought would happen.

Leave did have a paragraph (near the bottom) in this 1st June statement, co-authored by Gisela Stuart:

www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/restoring_public_trust_in_immigration_policy_a_points_based_non_discriminatory_immigration_system.html

'Second, there will be no change for EU citizens already lawfully resident in the UK...'

However, I don't recall them making this explicit or clear in their posters or soundbites.

And 4 million Leave voters don't concur.

The Referendum was enabled by the European Union Referendum Act 2015 so both the Commons and the Lords had chance to debate its provisions. The current mess the referendum has led to might suggest that there was some dereliction of duty by both houses.

If Gisela Stuart has dual nationality I presume that she would be able to stand as an MP. After all Boris Johnson had dual nationality and only renounced it recently, but was an MP for Henley from 2001 - 2008.

The Referendum was enabled by the European Union Referendum Act 2015 so both the Commons and the Lords had chance to debate its provisions. The current mess the referendum has led to might suggest that there was some dereliction of duty by both houses.

I have been thinking a lot about this too. For some reason, there was very little debate at the time. Perhaps it was because the referendum was only supposed to be advisory. Had it been binding, I guess the scrutiny (and conditions) would have been tighter. I also don't understand why there hasn't been more debate in parliament since the referendum, given how close the result was. A proper debate, with MPs discussing the pros and cons of various options.

I also don't understand why there hasn't been more debate in parliament since the referendum, given how close the result was. A proper debate, with MPs discussing the pros and cons of various options.

This baffles me too. Even Remainer MPs are saying, 'that's democracy', and rolling over as though the Eurosceptic Tories had a clean sweep. Instead there should be robust debate as to what terms would be acceptable to the majority in the country.

Exactly Tiggy. What exactly is anyone going to debate? and on earth is going to debate it anyway.

Should say who on earth!

I'm not sure a debate is meaningless, there's quite a difference between setting out to stay in the single market and setting out to negotiate a complete exit, agreed we can't expect everything our own way in either case. Just wanted to say thank you everyone for this thread.

nick tolhurst @nicktolhurst
@DavidAllenGreen UK has to pay EU budget dues till 2020. So even if u believe in #Brexit financially makes sense to delay exit to after 2020
Here is a VERY good reason to delay Brexit until after 2020.

We are committed to paying into the EU budget until 2020 (well 31st Dec 2019). There is utterly NO POINT in invoking a50 until the end of 2017 for this reason alone, as if we leave earlier then are still financially committed until the end of that EU financial year.

Why would you leave a year earlier, and through a years worth of budget down the drain? Especially when it is in our interest to delay a50 for as long as possible as we are not up to the job at present as we haven't even recruited the staff to man it?

I think even the hardest of Brexit supporters have to agree that it is not in the UK's financial interests in any way to exit prior to 1st Jan 2020 with that in mind.

www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/brexit-bureaucracy-will-infuriate-out-voters-xcwcmrjwg
The Times are running an article about how Brexit bureaucracy will infuriate out voters. Its not just the EU who are good at bureaucracy. I'd say we probably out do them on that front due to our lack of constitution.
It seems the reality is starting to dawn on people though...

David Allen Green ‏@DavidAllenGreen
^May decided Brexit to be dealt with by three departments. Anyone who knew Whitehall groaned. May "distinctly unimpressed" by consequence.
Number of tweeters saying Brexit turf-wars part of May's cunning plan.^

May once believed a human rights case was determined by a pet cat.

People who believe May to be some subtle Machavellian schemer did not watch the Home Office for the last six years.

Simple idiocy explains most policy-making messes - conspiracies happen, if at all, to cover the messes up.

We are FUKD aren't we?

www.france24.com/en/20160816-british-inflation-climbs-06-after-brexit-vote?ref=tw_i
Inflation has risen 0.6% since Brexit. Carney will have letter to write to the Government, on the subject, soon enough I'm sure.

www.politics.co.uk/news/2016/08/16/report-brexit-will-damage-incomes-of-poorest-workers
Report says that Brexit will hit the incomes of the poorest workers hardest.
Today's Resolution Foundation report suggests that bringing immigration down to the government’s target of the tens of thousands could lead to pay increases of between 0.16% and 0.62% for native workers in the period 2016-2018, depending on their sector.

But this would be offset against a massive 2.5% decrease in expected incomes, estimated by the Bank of England due to reductions in future earnings growth and rising inflation as a consequence of Brexit.

"While it is wrong to say that migration has had no effect on specific groups of natives' wages and employment, this effect has generally been small,” the report found.

OH. SHIT.
Unlucky.

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/josiah-mortimer/electoral-fraud_b_11539640.html]]
Huff Post on Ed Pickles electoral fraud proposals.

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/78167/jeremy-corbyn-wins-landslide-support-local-labour
Corbyn is killing the CLP nominations.

Oh and Corbyn said something about the 'complete rehabilitation' of Leon Trotsky apparently. Sometime. May or may not be true. Frankly have stopped caring about the subject of Trots.
www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/78174/jeremy-corbyn-called-complete-rehabilitation-leon

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/16/theresa-may-writes-letter-reassurance-chinese-president-xi-jinping-hinkley-point-c?CMP=twt_gu
May writes letter of reassurance to Chinese President about Hinkley Point
I think they should have gone with the alternative headline:
'May writes grovelling letter to the Chinese after dropping a diplomatic clanger over Hickley Point'

Slightly off topic, but to do with world diplomacy: Iran has allowed Russia to bomb Syria from one of its bases. I'm fully expecting that Turkey will realign itself from NATO and with Russia in due course...

Oh and I've just read an article about Belize being under US sanctions over banana due to drug associations. The article pointed out Belize's 40% poverty rate. I am not sure why I am talking about Belize and its economy on a thread about Brexit and how this might be relevant... oh yes I do. Arron Banks and Andrew Wigmore.

AND FINALLY, Giselle Stuart is an utter, utter moron who is suddenly waking up to what Brexit really means. In My Rather Unimportant Honest Opinion. HTH.
I have extended family who have emailed me in panic asking for help/advice about EU national spouses so I could metaphorically strangle Stuart over the subject and her role in it

It appears that the hopelessly incompetent Liam Fox has finally admitted that there's not much chance of us getting free access to the single market.

Red - though if we are to remain in the EEA, we will still be paying...

Still different budget though. The rebate for example is part of the current one.

Corbyn will almost certainly win tiggytape. I think everything I've seen suggests. He has the support of most unions and most CLPs already.

Hester, as you say, the Leave campaign didn't make the phrase "...there will be no change for EU citizens already lawfully resident in the UK..." explicit or clear in their posters or soundbites.

Very probably because they knew that wasn't what a lot people they relied on to vote Leave wanted to hear.