Westministenders Continues. The one where are being grateful for having a Boris rather than a Trump and UKIP show Labour how it’s done.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD TWELVE

The calm of the eye of the storm is upon us. The signs are there that more trouble is ahead. What now for Brexit, the blank cheque for our future?

May’s honeymoon can only last the Summer, until she has to do some proper graft. Her Cabinet have all gone on holiday and to swat up on their new specialised subject, and by god have they got some homework to do.

Well, all of them apart from Liam Fox, who has bugger all to do for some time.

Johnson needs to… well we all know what Boris needs to do. Bend over and take it like a good boy.

Davies needs to learn the entire structure and workings of the EU and its variations of trade agreements and relationships with other nations. Juncker has the FUKD in his little black book of people who have crossed him (yes, he actually has one of these) and has put Brit Hating Barnier in charge of the EU Brexit team. Davies must somehow hold his own against this experienced EU hardnut. In French. Oh and find a permanent office.

What do the others need to learn? Hammond - how to perform a bloody miracle. Patel - it is illegal to use foreign aid as a leverage for trade deals. Leadsom – er everything? Rudd – how to do bigger assault on liberty and human rights than her mentor. Fallon – how we will afford to defend ourselves with pitch forks, especially if we can’t use Trident for some reason and it becomes necessary. Our enemy; Russia? North Korea? Turkey? Isis? Na. Trump if he wins.

Brexit is now officially in the hands Whitehall’s unbelievers. Those overstretched officials who are already saying there is a gap in their capacity to deliver what Parliament wants without additional the burden of Brexit. These discredited experts are left wondering if their challenge is, in reality, Mission Impossible, and this is made worse by the pressure that just about every senior Brexiteer seems to say is ‘easy’ despite all the mounting evidence to the contrary. Which is cold comfort to everyone who voted – Remain or Leave alike.

We still don’t even know what Brexit is. It is still something which has no coherent ideology and no clear set of prescriptions for what ailes us as a society. It is a bundle of contradictions, united chiefly by what, and who, it opposes. Whatever the problem, Brexit can fix it. Whatever the threat, internal or external, Brexit can vanquish it, and it is unnecessary for Brexiteers to explain how.

May’s plan? Some say that she is the Dear Leader, some say she is an evil genius with Larry the Cat on her lap waiting for the Brexiteer Boys to fuck it up so we can Remain, some say she is blessed by the Ghost of Thatcher but we know her as The PM. –Sorry I’ve been itching to make the May/Hammond Top Gear gag for several weeks— The truth is, we just don't know yet.

Plus anything Brexit related about the Labour and UKIP leadership and the rest of the world thrown in to boot.

This is the quest for the answers that everyone wants and trying to keep an eye on those politicians and accountability (both here and abroad in the era of post-fact politics in the trail of Brexit). There maybe no single ‘truth’ but there sure as hell is a lot of bullshit to wade through. Get your wellies out, and plough on through with us.

No experience necessary. Sense of humour required.

-------------------------

Brexit Fall Out Timetable
Labour Hustings Nottinghamshire: Wednesday 17th August
Labour Hustings Birmingham: Thursday 18th August.
Labour Hustings Glasgow: Thursday 25th August.
Labour Hustings London: Thursday 1st September
UKIP Leadership Result: 15th September
Labour Leadership Result: Saturday 24th September
The Department for Exiting the European Union first question sessions in Parliament: Thursday 20th October
High Court hearing on a50: due 'no earlier than the third week in October'
US Presidential Election: 8th November
French Presidential Election 1st Round: 23 April 2017
French Presidential Election 2nd Round: 7th May 2017
German Federal Election: Between 27 August and 22 October 2017

Last thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2690632-Westminstenders-Continues-Boris-is-having-a-bad-week-Corbyn-resists-Its-gonna-be-a-long-summer?pg=1

The right honourable people of Westminster are at least consistent in treating the British general public as a bunch of fools...fools who will believe any such rubbish fed to them as per the lies of the Leave campaign.

And with barely a murmur of discontent when they are ever rumbled (except for these threads ), there's zero incentive to stop. I live in a country with quite some political instability and civil unrest, so may be a little desensitized, but I am very, very surprised there has been so little backlash considering the nature of brexit campaigning, immediate impact on the country's wallet and reputation, future deprivation of rights and extraordinarily questionable application of democratic process (bar one gathering in London I've seen zilch).

Perhaps people will make their voices heard more loudly as time goes on. I've worked out by now that the petition mechanism is a waste of time...I don't have any "good" solutions but just can't help feeling everyone's being terribly over-polite considering the UK, they themselves and their future generations have been royally fucked through a campaign based on fraudulent statements

Maybe the Brexiteers will self-destruct. Boris and Fox are already at loggerheads:
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/13/liam-fox-and-boris-johnson-locked-in-feud-over-who-controls-brit/

Hester it's like the UK is trying to showcase the biggest egos they can find....or the politicians with the poorest track records in basic judgement....it's totally nuts that people like this have been made responsible for executing really important stuff.

FFS I wouldn't trust Fox to prescribe me antibiotics never mind pick international trade out of the gutter. His track record has proven overwhelmingly that he's not appropriate. The very idea is astoundingly sick. This article sums up my feelings on the matter:

www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-cabinet-liam-fox-disgraced-mp-2011-defence-secretary-boris-johnson-back-into-frontline-a7136236.html

Ah Sunday morning armchair outrage

Its end of 2019. At the moment.

That means we won't trigger a50 until the end of next year. At the earliest.

I wouldn't be surprised if it slipped again.

Typically the EU like to do things on 1st Jan for their bookkeeping. So that means a50 by 31st Dec 2017. (Unless we go down the Treaty route).

So cuts are going to start happening and happening HARD round about May 2020, if that prediction holds. Even with such a lead in the polls now, would you want to fight the next General Election at that point if you were the Conservative party? Would you take the gamble and hedge your bets by delaying to end of 2020, with a 'plan in progress' but the effects not felt in full force at the time of the election?

It would be easier for the Tories to fight the GE on that position, than on a post Brexit position. UKIP or no UKIP. If a50 has been actioned even if its not on the time scale of the hardiners, it still is a plus for the Tories, whilst they can point at Labour shouting 'Militant Corbyn'. All the other parties will be on the back foot with Brexit. Any that chooses a 'reverse a50' stance at that point, will struggle in campaigning as the Tories can claim the moral high ground (they listened to concerns of everyone of course) and UKIP will be more inclined to go after Labour than the Tories I'm sure under that circumstance.

This does mean that the a50 route rather than Treaty route would tend to be more favourable to the Conservatives so they can say they have activated Brexit (unless a50 is some how packaged up in a treaty). Otherwise they are vulnerable to Swiss Tony. Err Nigel Farage, leader of UKIP. (yep, its got to happen hasn't it).

So cuts are going to start happening and happening HARD round about May 2020, if that prediction holds.

And the Press will spin it, and spin it so that it's all Labour's fault. I still think that the Tories could be vulnerable to UKIP if a 'hard-brexit' isn't on the cards.

What of course we don't know, is what of the famous 'unknown unknowns' are round the corner.

Breaking news is that the legal challenge to Labour stopping new members voting has been dropped.

I wish they would get on with opposing the Tories.

Interesting?

Going back to something we were talking about last week, a Telegraph columnist has written in favour of an increase in investment in new wind turbines, which is a big departure from the paper's general outlook on that particular technology.

Thinking further about the environment, I am very concerned about possible long-term effects post-Brexit. For example, if it is no cheaper for us to import goods from EU nations (due to the loss of free trade), and we start to import e.g. from Asia instead, then this will mean more food miles and carbon footprint. Environmentally it surely makes sense to import what we need from the nearest possible place (i.e. EU).

EU environmental directives:

www.cieem.net/data/files/Resource_Library/Policy/Policy_work/CIEEM_EU_Directive_Summaries.pdf

I've not read it all in detail, but the gist is that EU rules protect our environment. You can't disagree with the aim. I shudder to think what would happen if UK government and companies, anxious to maintain profit in a recession, abandon these directives because they're no longer bound by them.

but the gist is that EU rules protect our environment.

There is no reason why we couldn't design stricter rules, but on present Governmental form it seems extremely unlikely.

Red, apologies but I can't work out which of your links 'The fact that Farage has said that today says that seven weeks on, he might be starting to get nervous already.' refers to. Can you tell me?

He's been saying 'Brexit must mean proper border controls and out of the single market. Anything less would be a complete betrayal.' on twitter Sapphire.

I do take it because its seemingly unprompted and given the slipping of timing (which he is possibly more aware of than we are) might be meaning this is why he's tweeting to stress the point.

It is definitely slow this morning.

However, May is on holiday, and officially Boris is technically in charge at the moment as the most senior minister on duty. NOBODY PANIC!

blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/does-measuring-poverty-multidimensionally-make-a-difference/
measuring poverty - who May needs to focus on in theory

www.thecanary.co/2016/08/15/tory-plan-stop-4-million-people-voting-next-general-election-exclusive/
The Canary are suggesting that Pickles plans to make people provide ID in order to vote. It being the Canary I take with a pinch of salt.
Plans to enforce this in the USA in some States just got thrown out, so I'm not sure it will end up happening, but its something to keep an eye on too as this is something the right in the US are very keen on.

Brexit seems to have otherwise gone on holiday. And I simply can't face reading yet another opinion piece on Labour atm for the sake of my sanity.

They all say, Labour is fucked, Corbyn is unelectable (in some version or other unless its a twitter account or the Canary), Smith's campaign is arse but he's good on Europe, Labour has been infiltrated by Trots/MI5/hipsters/Russians/aliens, they are about to split/they are not about to split, 101 reasons why Tom Watson is a dick.

Or its the article that appeared in the Guardian over the weekend about how the far left infiltrated the Labour party in Knutsford in the 1980s and how we should really be fearing the Labour Trots. (If you are from the Manchester area you'll get why is so funny and an utterly desparate article otherwise, all you need to know, is that Knutsford is the heart of George Osbourne's safe Tory patch and footballers wives country).

OK, thanks Red. Yes, a funny thing for him to be saying, really. He's otherwise, post-result, been pretty quiet. Are UKIP members badgering him and the rest of them about 'a proper Brexit'?

What happens when the 2019 EU elections come around could get very interesting to say the least
2019 elections??

I had to laugh about Knutsford and the Labour Trots.

Out of curiosity I wondered what the Labour vote would have been in 1997, when Tony Blair had his landslide. For Tatton, this wasn't a typical year, because it was the year that Martin Bell stood against Neil Hamilton, so Labour didn't stand and no inferences can be drawn.

As for how electable Corbyn is, I will keep my eye on by-elections, even though they are not always a reliable guide to a General Election.

Elections for the EU Parliament. Would they be cancelled for the UK despite the fact that we were still in the EU at that point? Where is the democracy in that?

I think Hamilton will still have won if Bell hadn't stood. Bell won, because he had a good reputation and because he wasn't Labour.

The idea of Labour 'dirtying the good names' of Knutsford and Wilmslow would have sent house prices tumbling and seen an exodus to the fringes of Macclesfield.

I say that with all seriousness and no hint of irony.

I genuinely think there are people in the area who would move house rather than have a Labour MP. There are some beautiful places round that next of the woods, but by god there are some snobs.

Elections for the EU Parliament. Would they be cancelled for the UK despite the fact that we were still in the EU at that point? Where is the democracy in that?

If we were leaving in Dec 2019, rather than have an election they might extend the term of those UK sitting MEPs for 6 months I guess. Much longer than that, (seeing as we are likely to leave on 31st Dec whichever year it is) and I think we would have to have elections.

I personally, would love this to happen, even if we do Brexit, just to piss off Leavers more than anything. (I know, I know but it was be a sweet finger in the eye and I hope that people might actually elect pro-EU people in a last hurrah if a50 had just been triggered so kippers technically had no reason to turn up to vote. Call it a last minute EU Love-In).

I also know someone who was hoping to stand prior to the referendum, and I'd hope they got the chance still. They would have been brilliant at it.

I seriously think Farage's posts yesterday were a little 'hello, I'm still here, even though I am cunningly disguised by this moustache' reminder to the Ukip leadership candidates - one pulled out this morning, and it all seems (as ever with Ukip) a bit disorganised. Diane James is apparently on holiday and hasn't been to any of the hustings so far, two candidates threatened to sue the NEC if Stephen Woolfe was allowed to stand, and they are still planning to shut down the NEC.

I very much expect Farage to be back in the hot seat by the end of September.

And yes, the very idea of a Labour MP for Knutsford

Elections for the EU Parliament

Thanks, I've got my Monday head on.

Brexit: Government under pressure over Article 50 delay claim

Is this a sign that Mrs May's honeymoon period is coming to an end?

Honeymoon will last until the end of August just because of the Summer break. Then it gets fun again.

Gisela Stuart (Leave) says EU citizens need clarity on their situation. She'll be heading a cross-party inquiry "for centre-left think tank British Future" on protecting their rights. One quote from her: "There is wide agreement, among the public, politicians and business, that EU citizens are welcome here and that the government should make clear they can stay." I'm pretty sure a fair proportion of Leavers are not actually in agreement, though.

Story here www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37091464

I agree Patty, and according to this, 77% of Leave voters want EU citizens to stay. But that means 23% or 4 million who want them to go:

www.britishfuture.org/articles/inquiry-how-government-can-protect-rights-of-eu-citizens-in-uk/