Westminstenders Contines. Boris outmaneovered everyone?! Now War and Peace?

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD TEN

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This set of threads started out asking if Boris had been outmanoeuvred by Cameron handing him a poison chalice. Fate made it seem as if Boris lost the battle but May has confounded everyone and handed him a second chance. Or so it might seem.

May now has a new Cabinet after a sweeping cull of Cameron's lot. It is more right wing than in a generation. A number of appointments have raised eyebrows. There are plenty of poison chalices and plenty of Brexiteers. Will this create peace in the Tory ranks? Or is it just the calm before the storm

Labour are tearing themselves apart what now seems to be all out civil war. Talk of gerrymandering, violence, disenfranchisement, deselection and intimidation are rife. The seems to be no end in sight, and no prospect of a solution apparent. The question perhaps seems to be when and how, rather than if the party will split, and who will retain the name and party funds.

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So the sad face of British politics in the last two days can be summed up in a single image. Boris and a brick.

Depressed?

I think we have a while to go yet before we hit the bottom.

Excuse me with the intros as I'm starting to struggle to keep up with things myself

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2684990-The-Westminster-Hunger-Games-Contines-May-Day-May-Day Previous Thread Nine

Article in new statesman (sorry can't link) that probably won't surprise anyone: ukip are going to really target the old labour heartlands.

Boris's bad day.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/19/its-a-bad-day-when-boris-fails-even-to-make-himself-laugh?CMP=twt_gu
www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/19/boris-johnson-grilled-past-outright-lies-uneasy-press-conference-john-kerry

His expression alone says enough. And he confused Turkey with Egypt.
TWICE.

4 more years of this Boris. Sure you want to be PM?

Here's the link:
www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/07/ukip-stealthily-planning-move-could-shake-british-politics-its-core

Just reading the article now.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36836978

Home Secretary Amber Rudd has said her goal is to bring immigration down to "sustainable levels".

Ms Rudd declined to be drawn on whether the government was still committed to reducing annual net migration to the tens of thousands ... But Downing Street said there was no change of policy and in Theresa May's view "sustainable levels does mean the tens of thousands".

Stuff like this makes me doubt that May is a deep thinker with a cunning plan.

Scotland remaining in the EU ?
Grahan Avery (Oxford don& Brussels) has outlined why he thinks there is a good chance of this:

http://www.epc.eu/documents/uploads/pub68366scotlandanddtheeuropeann_union.pdf

It is in the .eu domain and is part of the support to the 27, who have to develop their response.
Summary in "Prospects" on final page.
Hmm, I still think the chances are against it, but it's possible

oops, iPad.
Avery is Senior Policy Adviser at the European Policy Centre, Brussels.

Outgoing UKIP leader Nigel Farage has said the UK should be aiming to bring net migration back down to "normal" post-war levels of no more than 50,000, saying the existing system discriminates against skilled workers from the Commonwealth and the rest of the world.

For those who voted for Brexit on the grounds of there being too much immigration: are they really going to want immigrants from the Indian Sub -continent?

Farage forgets that we have an aging population - except for those East European immigrants who will by now have received the message that they are not welcome and may well start to return home.

Now, if we had a realistic plan to increase the number of places at medical, nursing and midwifery schools (no shortage of applicants), to plug the staffing shortages, then reducing immigration might be realistic.

Also, those from the Indian subcontinent & MENA won't return home before the most expensive time (to the country) in their lives: old age.
EU immigrants arrive already educated, so we save on their first 20 years and often on their later years - many return home after a few years.
EU immigrants on average tend to be higher skilled than non-EU and to be net contributors.

Great blog by one of JC's former economics advisors
(I'm amazed he had any !)

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2016/07/17/the-rise-and-fall-of-corbyns-economicss_//_

“The leadership wasn’t confusing as much as just silent.
There was no policy direction, no messaging, no direction, no co-ordination, no nothing.
Shadow ministers appeared to have been left with no direction as to what to do.
It was shambolic.
The leadership usually couldn’t even get a press release out on time to meet print media deadlines and then complained they got no coverage."

"The impression left is that they have created a movement that hates what’s happening in the world and can get really angry about it, but then has not a clue what to do about it.”

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36841921?ocid=socialflow_twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbcnews&ns_source=twitter

Cleggy's back. The Lib Dems decide to form 2 man opposition. What to heckle about joining the party and the other to heckle about the EU.

Labour Leadership Poll
YouGov / 15 – 18 Jul / Only those members eligible to vote.

JC: 54%
Eagle: 21%
Smith: 15%

Eagle beats Smith, but JC so far ahead that he may win on the 1st ballot.
If he wins, do the PLP back down or split off ?

Thank you so much for all these threads. Was just wondering whether anyone else heard Nick Robinson apologising profusely on Today this morning for getting his Owens confused...

Ghost I missed that. Did he do like I did and mix up Owen Smith and Owen Jones?

one of my Facebook friends also mixed up Owen Smith and Owen Jones - definitely not just us [biggrin]

But Downing Street said there was no change of policy and in Theresa May's view "sustainable levels does mean the tens of thousands"

Have they learnt nothing?

Glad to see Cleggy back.

I was listening to 5Live this morning and 2 labour women were discussing the leadership, pressing the nuke button and so on. I only switched on halfway through, so missed who they were - but it got vicious. I'm not sure this labour rift can be easily healed.

Yes Ginger, he said that he was very sorry and Owen Jones had quite enough to do what with his work as a Guardian journalist. I only heard the apology though, not the actual slip up. Clearly it's not an uncommon error Cha!

BigChoc

AE has now officially withdrawn from the leadership race so that poll will now be out of date. I wonder if people voting for AE will automatically switch to OS?

I've always erred towards Labour but it seems they have a problem with women which is extremely offputting.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/19/angela-eagle-labour-leader-gender-party-patriarchy
I like this quote:
'... the most effective way of signalling change in politics (or any other line of business) is to bring in a woman.'
The Labour old guard are not ready to change.

Hester That has always been my problem with Labour too. The first woman PM should have been Barbara Castle, who could have run rings round the men. Margaret Beckett did a good job as a caretaker leader, but apart from that zilch.

Today and tomorrow May is visiting France and Germany. They'll want to know how they UK sees things going forward, so it'll be interesting to see what, if anything, transpires from the visits.

I think there's a certain sympathy for May personally, she's seen as clearing up the mess made by others.

Hester - yes, it's a real issue for Labour, I think. I don't think it's a stretch to say that there are many left wing men who consider themselves to be very right on but it's a different matter when it comes to women's issue ( cough Owen Jones cough).

Tiggy I reckon you're right. There was talk about not splitting the vote. Perhaps they are (very slowly) getting their arse into gear?

Why was it AE that had to drop out? I think she has potential. I liked this occasion when she seemed in control, humorous and statesmanly (no! even that word is gender-biased; can anyone think of an alternative?). Sadly, recently she didn't come across like this:
m.youtube.com/watch?v=JL2wykme9sk

I'm glad cleggs back which means Miriam's kind of back too.

She wrote an article shortly after the referendum which boiled down to; Wtaf, you bunch of chumps.

She's got that 'safe hands' thing going on that Theresa May has- but I don't feel Angela eagle does (sorry!)