Westminstenders Contines. Boris outmaneovered everyone?! Now War and Peace?

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD TEN

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This set of threads started out asking if Boris had been outmanoeuvred by Cameron handing him a poison chalice. Fate made it seem as if Boris lost the battle but May has confounded everyone and handed him a second chance. Or so it might seem.

May now has a new Cabinet after a sweeping cull of Cameron's lot. It is more right wing than in a generation. A number of appointments have raised eyebrows. There are plenty of poison chalices and plenty of Brexiteers. Will this create peace in the Tory ranks? Or is it just the calm before the storm

Labour are tearing themselves apart what now seems to be all out civil war. Talk of gerrymandering, violence, disenfranchisement, deselection and intimidation are rife. The seems to be no end in sight, and no prospect of a solution apparent. The question perhaps seems to be when and how, rather than if the party will split, and who will retain the name and party funds.

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So the sad face of British politics in the last two days can be summed up in a single image. Boris and a brick.

Depressed?

I think we have a while to go yet before we hit the bottom.

Excuse me with the intros as I'm starting to struggle to keep up with things myself

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2684990-The-Westminster-Hunger-Games-Contines-May-Day-May-Day Previous Thread Nine

They can't make it sound like "abnormal" behaviour unless they "name" it. Hence the labels.

tiggy it is just not true to say that the message coming out from Labour to the general electorate has not changed post Corbyn. Only the SNP went into the last GE on an anti-austerity ticket and EM and co put all their efforts into disassociating themselves from it in response to DC and co's accusations of a Lab/SNP alliance.

It is a measure of how effective JC and JMD have been that even TM and Boris are now talking about Growth economics.

I am struggling to think of ANY occasion when the PLP have been supportive of JC since his election and even in the context of recent Tory Westminster backstabbing shenanigans their behaviour over the last 9 months looks "treacherous" both in terms of loyalty to the Leadership and the electability of the Party.

POLLS POLLS POLLS
Labour members only // Jeremy Corbyn should:
Lead Labour into the next GE: 47%
Step down before the next GE: 9%
Step down now: 37%
(YouGov)

Labour members only // On holding a second EU referendum:
Support: 64%
Oppose: 27%
(via YouGov)

36% of Labour members think Corbyn would likely lead their party to a general election defeat. 33% with Eagle, 20% with Smith.
(via YouGov)

99% of Labour members say they know a great deal/fair amount about Corbyn compared to 74% for Eagle and 31% for Smith.
(via YouGov)

On the team better able to manage the economy:
T. May & P. Hammond: 53%
J. Corbyn & J. McDonnell: 15%
(via ICM / 13 - 15 Jul)

This splits 45-23 in favour of Corbyn and McDonnell among Labour voters, and 93-2 in favour of May and Hammond among Tories.
(via ICM)

Less than 24 hours before the registration process for the Labour vote ends and both Eagle and Smiths supporters both seem to be saying their candidate has most support. Which suggests that its close and the PLP can't decide.

HOWEVER:

C4's Michael Crick is also reporting the following:
Labour NEC suggests high command worried Michael Foster's legal case on Corbyn standing without 51 nominations might succeed
If you don't know / remember who Michael Foster is, he's the big Labour Party donor who took legal action to keep Corbyn off the ballot. This fella
Michael Crick ‏also says:
And Michael Foster has a top QC on his side - Gavin Millar, who often operates FOR the Labour Party in big court cases
And then
Angela Eagle and Owen Smith have now been given lists of MP nominators so far. I get feeling nobody will withdraw til tomorrow

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/what-would-happen-if-labour-splits-a7144666.html
What happens if Labour Splits.
A very interesting article. No wonder Tim is inviting people to his party.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/19/the-fight-for-labours-soul-what-the-partys-brutal-1981-split-means-today?CMP=twt_gu
And what happened, last time Labour split.

www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/19/bulk-data-collection-can-only-be-used-to-fight-serious
More on the Davis, er not Davis versus the government and the Snooper's charter. Looks like the EU has ruled against the government and bulk data can only be used for serious crime.

AND FINALLY
Johnson and Kerry doing a press conference about UK - US relations. Johnson was asked about his comments about Hilary...
Chris Ship ‏@chrisshipitv
Ouch. Excellent Q from @AP journalist on Boris' past words on Obama, Clinton and others. Reply: 'it will take too long to apologise to all'
So basically Boris said: I can't respond to all the nasty things I've said about people because it would take too long to list them all
I watched @JohnKerry pull a kind of '#awkward' face as @nytimes journalist accuses @BorisJohnson of telling 'outright lies'

Sorry Tiggy I didn't mean to attribute Jake and Julia's comments to you

I am disheartened that these sort of comments are left largely unchallenged by the professional political commentators though. I agree with the pp and related articles on the exponential increase in media bias in the Corbyn era.

Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes · 2m2 minutes ago

Rumour: Labour sources say Angela Eagle is pulling out

Howabout I'm pretty sure the reason the Conservatives are talking about 'growth economics' because they've fucked up the economy. With a less supine press and an Opposition that wasn't otherwise engaged, they might get forced to re-name 'growth economics' as emergency First Aid.

I actually find it astonishing that the economic turbulence unleashed by Brexit - even at this stage - is being downplayed. There really should be more analysis of why a 'growth economics' is necessary now. It's not altruism.

Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam · 2m2 minutes ago
So @angelaeagle pulls out of Labour leadership campaign after indicative ballot indicated @OwenSmith_MP - 90 Eagle - 72 out of 162 MPs/MEPs

I think I am just baffled and dispirited that Cameron could make such a huge political mistake and the Conservatives still be seen as the 'economically competent' party. And there's Johnson - who is internationally seen as a liar - in the government, still!
It should be outrageous.

Growth economics was needed anyway.

6 years of elective austerity has fucked us up and is one of the reasons we are in this mess.

The one thing Brexit has achieved is stopping George Osborne from influcting 4 more years of this shit on the country.

I can't help thinking that with various groups e.g. Researchers, MEPs, already being frozen out of EU groups and collaborations, but with us still paying our membership fees, that in practice, we have already achieved Brexit lite/EEA.

Doinitfine, I'm not sure the effect is going to be any different, we're just starting with a lower tax take

The Melania Trump thing makes me feel a bit sad - watching Michelle Obama and knowing that's nearly all gone.

Red Just want to say 'thank you' for all your links and updates.
Am off to read.

Just watch Boris at his press conference with the American Secretary of State.

Boris got tetchy with one of the questioners, who came back with, "If you were sitting here, you would be asking the same questions".

He had no come back for that. Lots of people seen to say that he is a very clever man. He comes across to me as rather inarticulate.

Talking a break from posting but am still reading, digesting and learning. Thanks everyone - it's an education (in a good way) :).

wrt "Brexit stopping Osbourne's austerity:"
Any damaging shock to the economy would have stopped austerity, e.g. if someone sent the RAF to bomb lots of UK factories and banks.

It's like if you are a bit overweight and your GP keeps nagging you about "eating less & moving more" and puts you on a diet (austerity)

Then you get conned by some snakeoil merchants (Farage, Banks, Gove, Boris etc) and buy some godawful diet pills from the Internet (www.leave-eu.com) which bugger up your liver & kidneys (Brexit shock) and cause longterm damage (Brexit itself)

Your GP will stop the diet / austerity crap immediately, because your body is now too weak for dieting.
They will concentrate on tlc so you survive and hopefully recover.
You'll probably lose far too much weight because you're so ill, so no more diets for years & years

Any damaging shock to the economy would have stopped austerity, e.g. if someone sent the RAF to bomb lots of UK factories and banks.

So?

I don't think I could be clearer that Brexit is a clusterfuck.

But one good thing in the clusterfuck is that austerity is over.

Austerity was precisely aimed to hit the poorest hardest.

So maybe some of the people who most needed some relief, and who will be unaffected by the immediate drawbacks of Brexit, will not have the screws turned on them further just to titillate the vindictive English Tory voter.

It's so tiresome being lectured about what a bad idea Brexit is uf you dare to point out even the thinnest of silver linings.

I can't help thinking that with various groups e.g. Researchers, MEPs, already being frozen out of EU groups and collaborations, but with us still paying our membership fees, that in practice, we have already achieved Brexit lite/EEA.

Yup.

If one more person tells me that "nothing has changed", "we are still in the EU", I might combust with frustration.

I think what worries many of us is that the poorest may be hardest hit - we just don't know.
e.g.

• It seems TM will go for infrastructure spending, so that should create some jobs.

However, her aim is partly to offset the jobs lost from businesses.

Some will directly lose their jobs, others will be knock-on effect for component manufacturers or services
e.g. on a tiny scale, when I emigrated there were work hours lost for my cleaner, gardener, decorator, plumber, those serving me in shops & restaurants etc

• Will the welfare cuts be reversed when the country is receiving less tax revenue ?

The nightmare for me is the hard right Tory dream of a WTO Brexit where they push down wages and working conditions towards those of India and China.

George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton 33s34 seconds ago
David Davis has met TUC general secretary Frances O'Grady and pledged that Brexit would not erode workers' rights.

There is absolutely no reason why the Government couldn't promote workers rights and eventually have better ones than in the EU. It's just that on past form, this has not been the Tories priority and I don't see them changing any time soon.

Davis also said: "I want to meet the Leavers' objectives but the Remainers' concerns."

Erm, how?