To feel really positive about leaving the EU

[kitty1976]

I know there has been lots of fear stories but in a few weeks since the vote we have managed to get a new PM who seems more than capable and we are now in control of our destiny without being ruled by an unelected and unaccountable EU. The EU has for a long time been a basket case and has condemned much of the youth of Southern Europe to decades of unemployment, it's a relief to be out. Do remember we are now free to negotiate our own trade deals with the rest of the world and most countries are not in the EU and seem to do well. There have been so many fear stories which have been peddled by self interest. I wonder in 5 years time how many remainers will be asking to rejoin the EU!!

larry
You just can't be "convinced" that financial services industry contributes much less than what public thinks. Where's the data backing your point?

i am not entirely sure how many jobs etc will move away from uk. I think if the the financial centre of Europe is somewhere else, it will be a lot in this sector alone. Since Leavers have no idea how this gap will be filled or actually how many will be gone, I strongly suspect that the lack of plan shows there is a severe lack of understanding of how complicated it can be. this is very very scary for me. I belong to generation who bore the brunt of the 2008 crisis and still paying for it. I don't understand you and your logic.

As for EU crumbling down, I believe you are deluded. They are big enough to not fail. The way £ has gone down, the way Bank of England say they will decrease the rate from August, the way property market has ground to a hault and the way time is ripe for foreign investors to swoop in on uk property, I really hope I actually manger to get a solid roof above my family's head before it all goes haywire.

David Davis didn't know until April this year that you can't negotiate trade deals with individual EU countries. BoJo was practically kicked up his arse by EU when he suggested after Leave (in his column) that we could think of free market alongside curbing immigration.
Where will you get your food from larry? Where will you export what you manufacture here? And actually WHAT do we manufacture here?

Please answer these questions because they are genuine questions. Not because the answers will please me.

EU may be too big to fail. But UK isn't. :(

Financial services contribute about 16% to the UK's GDP and contributed over £66bn to the UK tax receipts last year, about 11% of the entire take, which is good as it only employs 3.4% of the countries work force.That is directly from corporation taxes btw.

You then have to take into consideration contributions made by individuals through income tax, NI, captial gains etc. You must also consider the multiplier effect. A conservative estimate would be that the multiplier effect on financial services is about 1.5 so then you would end up with financial services directly and indirectly contributing about 24% of GDP.

As I said that's a very conservative estimate and its likely to be higher, as the City of London contributes around 22% on its own.

Its important Larry, and significantly so.

'I really don't think the EU failing is a possibility. The ramifications of such an event on the world would be devastating and there are too many major world economies and political powers in the EU with vested interest in its success for this to happen.

It won't fail, end of anyone discussing otherwise is involved in some serious wishful thinking not any reasoned critical analysis.'

The EU can easily fail. It won't collapse (except for the southern part). It will just schism back to a northern union and the southern countries doing their own thing as best they can, and competing via competitively devaluing their currencies.

Waving a magic wand and saying 'vested interests' and 'too big to fail' (modern 'abracadabra') too me is real wishful thinking!

As for where I will get my food, the CAP is the biggest scam against the poorer parts of the World ever invented. Do you know how desperate Africa is to export food and pull itself out of poverty by its own bootstraps?! Emerging markets emerge via agriculture, unless they have been deliberately blocked from so doing. But I guess you would prefer to keep the CAP and have a bunch of aged rock and rollers asking you to donate money.

The thing I hope for the most is a fairer world. I hope we can trade with African and Latin American countries more (without impossing debilitating tarrifs on them) and that they become more prosperous.

The EU is the biggest foreign investor in Brazil with investments in many sectors of the Brazilian economy.
ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/brazil/

The EU is negotiating a trade agreement with Mercosur, the South American version of the EU.
ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/regions/mercosur/index_en.htm

The EU has an Economic Partnership Agreement with 16 West African states, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the West African Economic and Monetary Union.
ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/regions/west-africa/

The EU's GSP preferential trade scheme increases the focus of EU unilateral preferences on developing countries most in need, in sectors where they need them.
ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/development/index_en.htm

This is how we currently trade with developing nations: www.gov.uk/guidance/the-world-trade-organisation-and-trading-with-developing-countries

'Tis a pity that what you most hope for is most facilitated by the network you've just opted to leave. If not painfully ironic.

premature ejaculation ;-) As part of the EU Britain was one of Africa's major trading parties already but what when we are just one small island with not many skilled commercial negotiators and a foreign secretary who talks of piccaninnies ...... www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21639554-china-has-become-big-africa-now-backlash-one-among-many

And putting your assumptions of what will happen Larry is equally fanciful.

A mumsnet glitch but the point Inwas making is that Africa is no longer a continent desperate to send it's groundnuts etc to us, that sounds straight out of the UKIP folder. Like all of these issues it is very very complex.

larry
"The EU can easily fail. It won't collapse (except for the southern part). It will just schism back to a northern union and the southern countries doing their own thing as best they can, and competing via competitively devaluing their currencies. "

WHERE IS THE PROOF FOR THAT?or is it all in your head again?
Too big to fail HAS happened to ME AND MY GENERATION.we are still paying the loss incurred by the 2008 crisis! Where do you live?? You are definitely one of the baby boomers larry for saying too big to fail is just a rhetoric. Only someone who is not my generation will be able to say this.
AND YOU HAVENT ANSWERED WHAT DO WE MAKE IN THIS COUNTRY THAT WE CAN EXPORT.

Bold is not shouting. It's highlight for me.

And it doesn't exactly help that when a lot of African countries were sending ground nuts to us we were denying them independence because we needed their cheap commodities and their markets for our manufacturing output to sustain the post war recovery ( and that was a Labour government). If Africa's developing civil societies are sensitive to being exploited by China it arises from a post colonial consciousness. We have to forget our history, and not assume a resulting arrogance and sense of entitlement and realise that we will have to compete hard for their trade, because the reality is there are other economies desperate to trade with them. The fallacy that the rest of the world is desperate to do business is underpinned only by illusions of entitlement.

Valentine2 Agree with you.

If we propped up multinational banks for fear that they would bring other industries (and hence, people down), why on Earth do people think that the failing of an entire union of nations won't affect the UK?

The 'conscious uncoupling' from the EU will not save the UK, if the EU does go down - so you better hope it doesn't happen.

So how would Italy be bailed out, if it came to it?

By Eurozone nations as agreed, not by the entire EU. Also the new rules on "risk" mean that shareholders will be required to relinquish their own pre invested capital ( to a certain extent) before any bail out is considered.

Yay, delighted to be leaving an undemocratic megastate. You lot are only concerned about yourself, your rich City friends, your house price and your wallet.
Democracy rules. Brexit rocks!

Have you not noticed the fact that the current government were not democratically elected.

Argument fail, epic fail.

Yawn.....

That wasn't you you obv mallfox. It was to 'Brexit rocks' numptiness.

Trying, it's not the rich who are going to suffer as a result of us leaving the EU.

Of all the many things I don't understand about the Leavers, one of the biggest is this democracy thing. Have they never heard of MEPs? Or, for that matter, the Queen, civil servants, the House of Lords and the current Prime Minister.....,,,

An "undemocratic megastate"?

Bloody hell. Can I ask what exactly you mean by that?

You mean that the MEP I voted for (did you vote for yours?) and the vetoes and approvals our government submitted had no impact whatsoever? Really?

Meanwhile, do you care at all about the missing £350m that isn't going to the NHS anymore?

Why not look at the missing £650m per week that goes missing via unpaid tax, by HMRC's calculations?

Maybe we should be looking to clamp down on unregulated tax havens.
Like the EU's doing: a move which the UK blocked.
They're now going ahead without us.
Oh, dear.

I realise we don't have a democratic government in control at the moment which is not great but, to call for a GE now wouldn't be good. I do actually think Theresa May is the best person for the job but, I am curious to know who people would have voted for if we did have one. I personally don't think we could have had Angela, Boris or Michael Gove for obvious reasons, the Labour Party are all over the shop , the Lib Dems possibly but maybe a bit inexperienced for something of this magnitude at the mo? Just interested really.

I notice you are not mentioning the Queen, senior civil servants and the House of Lords........