Implications of not invoking Article 50

[CuppaTeaAndAJammieDodger]

So there is plenty of talk about whether or not Article 50 will actually be triggered.

Let's say that it's not, what do you think the implications will be? Will the whole sorry mess just get swept under the carpet? Will we be forevermore looked upon as the laughing stock of the EU? Will it's initiate a conversation and possibly action to shake up British politics for the better or worse?

Would like to hear anyone's thoughts.

Yes definitely. The problem is of course that the remain campaigners couldn't say any of that without admitting this was all their own mess. Well largely their own mess.

Btw I'm under the impression the reason we don't do some of these things is more of a cost to set up effort. In theory once a department is up and running it will fund itself through saved payments elsewhere and possibly lead to savings but it would take some investment to start with. There's not really the zeal to pay and make the effort for this so it's seen as easier and cheaper to just treat on nhs/pay benefits indefinitely/etc. It's a strange false economy made worse by austerity.

Yes that was my assumption StrictlyMumDancing, that it was the initial investment/organisation that stopped this from ever being fully/effectively implemented. Doesn't seem such a bad idea now though - as they say - hindsight is 20/20.

Seeing as our economic woes are possibly having knock-on effects elsewhere in the EU (DAX down again today), aren't the rest of the EU going to be getting desperate to kick us out?

There is currently no mechanism for rEU to force us out right? So (ignoring for a moment the ongoing economic carnage caused by the uncertainty) we could sit here at an impasse indefinitely going "Ner ner ner, we're staying as long as we damn well please"? It's surreal.

cuppa ain't hindsight fab eh? The other thing I forgot to mention was that often these sort of things will take years before turning a saving of equalising so if it's not done as soon as a new government come in they're hardly likely ever to do so - they don't want to look like they've wasted a lot of money nor do they want the next government able to take the credit for when it does start working efficiently.

I do wonder if there is someone who has the balls out there to say:
we are not invoking article 50 yet. Some of the reasoning behind the votes on both sides we believe may be in our control so we are going to take up previously unused eu rights and set up some commissions to look into others. We will then reassess whether leaving the Eu is the best thing for the country.

Obviously if they did I imagine they'd put it far more eloquently and it would require some actual detail to pull it off

Precisely element
I suppose it could be achieved by one of them declaring war on us. Not sure how they'd manage it though, maybe they could ask Blair

that they could use Article 7 to force us out or sanction us

But we'll still be members so we could veto any attempt to make us leave? Sorry, it's really... just... 😂😂😂

It should be possible to get over 50% of the whole electorate to agree to an EEA solution (basically EU-lite = fewer rules and free access to the EU market, BUT with free EU immigration)

• nearly all the 48% Remainers plus a smaller % of the Leavers would accept this

The referendum gave the choice Leave / Remain.
That does NOT mean that a subset of Leavers have a veto about the FORM of Brexit, that would override the wishes of everyone else

The UK would have no veto if Article 7 were brought against it.
Similarly, in point 4 under Article 50, "...the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it."

The rest of the EU has to agree to our continuing with the EEA. I suspect that there would be a lot of huffing and puffing, but they would fall in.

I imagine that the centre ground of the UK population would go along with this - the extremes of left and right wouldn't. It might be acceptable in Scotland and N Ireland, and Gibraltar, but I wouldn't like to guess on the first two. If it was coupled with measures to end austerity more of those currently feeling disenfranchised may be OK with it, but I really don't think it was what the majority of either side thought they were voting for.

I don't see how there can be two stage negotiations of negotiate to leave and then seek admission to the EEA. Part of the leave negotiations would surely touch on issues which were relevant to EEA status?

Loving the reliance on surveys when they go the election and the referendum spectacular wrong. But now it's convenient they are super reliable sources to prove every leaver in Wales regrets their vote

EEA is definitely a form of Brexit, not staying in the EU, but is the form with the least economic damage.
If the Leave campaign had stated that this was their plan, the UK could have avoided almost all lost jobs, damage to business confidence, talk of Scotland Indy 2 etc AND gained a much clearer mandate and % for Brexit .

so we may:

• leave for good in a strop
• leave and negotiate re-entry
• leave, negotiate, no re-entry
• be kicked out
• remain
• remain, negotiate exit, re-entry
• negotiate, Negotiate, negotiate
• wait until everyone forgets about the referendum results, declare general elections, have another referendum, disregard the results.

Now that's a plan. I might run for prime minister. Any questions?

I'm pretty sure there would be riots. To be honest I'm starting to worry there will be riots either way though.

Sounds good blue!

but is the form with the least economic damage

The least economic damage would be to remain. We'd look like tits, but smaller tits than if we go through with it.

I'd so much rather look foolish now than face 10-20 years of economic uncertainty and decline.

In 10 years we will be facing a Chilcott-like enquiry at how this debacle ever happened. Universal fuckwittage is the answer.

FellOut, I'm sure there will be civil unrest either way too.

I fear there will be civil unrest no matter what.

But now it's convenient they are super reliable sources to prove every leaver in Wales regrets their vote
Who has said this, RockandRollsuicide?

Here's something I just read which is both helpful in understanding the situation and depressing - it's a Venn diagram showing how there's no solution that is both politically and economically workable. www.vox.com/2016/7/5/12098156/brexit-eu-britain-venn-diagram

I have just seen a silly tweet suggesting we do nothing but just tell people we've left the eu. Not sure how workable that is but maybe the only way out