Implications of not invoking Article 50

[CuppaTeaAndAJammieDodger]

So there is plenty of talk about whether or not Article 50 will actually be triggered.

Let's say that it's not, what do you think the implications will be? Will the whole sorry mess just get swept under the carpet? Will we be forevermore looked upon as the laughing stock of the EU? Will it's initiate a conversation and possibly action to shake up British politics for the better or worse?

Would like to hear anyone's thoughts.

A totally avoidable fuck-up at that.

Utter fuck up just about sums it up sadly.

God, what an utter fuck up.

Yep

I think it would be perfectly reasonable not to leave. 52% is not a mandate, particularly when an unknown proportion of leave voters voted that way based on what is now proven to be lies.
It would also not be a prescedent to take an informed view on what is in countries best interests and hence remain. See attached

I live in hope that Article 50 will never be invoked. I think that holding the referendum in the first place was a huge miscalculation and a disaster.

We certainly shouldn't be made to go at a pace faster than we are able to cope with. A lot has to fall into place and there is legislation going back decades which may have to be considered.

I'm fairly sure the other EU member states would be massively narked given the utter fiasco we have caused for not just ourselves but them too.

I suspect there would be an expectation that we play ball with more grace than we have historically done.

Also expect there would be civil unrest. But frankly there's a chance of that if we do leave. The shape of our exit is unlikely to take the one possibly millions of Leave voters wish for. Depending on how bad it is, remain voters may have something to say about it, as might the EU nationals, who whilst not counted in the vote definitely exist and definitely aren't happy with this situation.

I think there would be civil unrest.

Some areas of the country voted 80% leave. It isn't just the 'older generations' that voted leave either jokes about scooters are a little uncalled for

As I have said elsewhere. By not going through with it you are proving those that don't feel they have a voice and aren't listened to right. They haven't and they aren't being.

We are in a lose lose situation. It's about damage limitation now.

The least damage would be not to invoke Article 50; that option would result in civil unrest and maybe civil war. Then we can recover.

If we go ahead and leave the EU I can't even begin to imagine how bad it will be. We will sit around worrying for 2 years waiting for disaster to happen. Then economic disaster, civil unrest, civil war, retribution from the world and war. I don't know how we would recover from it.

garden awesome table. And I love a table

cuppa sorry, it's my bug bear with this entire thing not you! Say if Cameron had woken up the next morning and said sod the results we are staying in? I'd guess civil unrest and a general election with a far right swing. Though I'd imagine the racists who thought they had the right to go public wouldn't have so that would have been a bonus. But now, if someone turned around with no reason, it'd be a lot of civil unrest and a massive far right swing.

The least damage would be not to invoke Article 50; that option would result in civil unrest and maybe civil war. Then we can recover.

That recovery would take many many years. It has taken 30 years for some areas to get into this mess. They won't 'recover' in a few years.

I agree with the damned if we do and damned if we don't.

If we try to stay after all this, the EU will make us pay heavily and we will be worse off than before. Not to mention the country will be fucked as it will give a clear message that the voices of ordinary people do not count so what happens at the next general election, all trust will be gone and civil unrest sounds very likely. You can't tell people this is a once-in-a-lifetime vote then tell them it won't be acted on

I do wonder if all this chaos is instigated to give those in power a breathing space to try to figure ways around things but, yes, fuck up does sum it up

I am not elderly but do wish people would just fuck off with the stereotyping and ageism. If you want to blame anybody, blame those who didn't vote at all, especially the 64% of 18-24 year-olds who did not bother to vote

Just suppose, and I know this is a stretch for some, but just suppose that there could be some positives (like here )

Now we are at this point I hope somebody that knows what they are doing is looking at everything from all angles rather than just plotting how to backtrack

garden thanks for posting the table. I wish I'd had it to hand every time someone has said it would be "undemocratic" to disregard the result or have a 2nd ref. Even a Brexiter writing in the FT pre 24th June said it was possible we'd keep going til we got the 'right' answer, like countries have done previously.

I think garden's table just shows how undemocratic things can be sometimes. I don't think it's an endorsement of that at all!

Sorry, yes, obviously it's not great and I wouldn't advocate it, but I just wanted to show that repeat referendums had happened before and the petition for one wasn't just a result of 'whining' remainers not getting their way.

I think our future PM will have no option but to invoke Article 50. To not do so would be almost as foolish as the referendum itself.

However, I fully expect that we will never achieve a full Brexit and will remain attached to or associated with the EU in no small capacity,will continue to contribute to it and, I hope, continue to benefit from it. The immigration issue will be the sticking point.

Civil unrest.

Riots

Yes. Because you lost
Haven't we moved on from facile comments like this

But 'vote leave' did win.
I don't know what part of 'vote remain lost' you don't understand?
A50 will be triggered no matter who gets the PM job. Theresa May will delay it a bit, but she'll trigger it eventually. If she doesn't civil unrest is a certainty.
The media really have to stop now with all the 'only the thick voted leave' reporting. They're just fuelling your fantasy that A50 will never happen.
& you say things like 'but this is so important we have to debate the fuck out of it' - every election is important. If we hadn't voted Thatcher in we might still have a mining industry, if we hadn't voted Blair in we wouldn't have gone to war, who knows? - every election is important - but whoever's democratically elected wins. That's it. General elections change our society far more than leaving the EU every will.

& the ageism on this thread is alive & kicking I see.

Surferjet

agent
I think there would be civil unrest in the leave-voting areas
most of England then outside the 'London bubble'
I find it difficult to believe you think 17.5 million 'out' voters are seen as troublemakers who will take to the streets!
a minority of voters may protest - something like 30k on marches somewhere - but the vast majority of 'out' voters will grit their teeth and carry on - voting tactically at the next election.

The media really have to stop now with all the 'only the thick voted leave' reporting.

What on earth media do you read or watch?

I think all this talk of civil unrest is totally off the mark. When did the british last rise up? And which part of the british population, and why?

There may be growth in far right parties, but the police can handle that.

What will happen is that a decision will be delayed and delayed ... And by that time, the UK will be in recession, immigration will have fallen and the government can declare that the war on foreigners has been won.

At this point public opinion will have softened to the point where ordinary EEA membership or even remaining in the EU can be sold to the public as the best response to the economic downturn.

Both good and interesting posts to think about mistigirl and tiggytape. I found myself agreeing with each, even though it's not logically possible!