Implications of not invoking Article 50

[CuppaTeaAndAJammieDodger]

So there is plenty of talk about whether or not Article 50 will actually be triggered.

Let's say that it's not, what do you think the implications will be? Will the whole sorry mess just get swept under the carpet? Will we be forevermore looked upon as the laughing stock of the EU? Will it's initiate a conversation and possibly action to shake up British politics for the better or worse?

Would like to hear anyone's thoughts.

tiggy if the people send UKIP or BNP MPs to parliament that is not "civil unrest", it's the democratic process. It would be concerning if it happened of course but the far right and left have a right to participate in the democratic process as long as they abide by its rules.

The sort of people that the police can deal with are the approximately 2000 far right access currently on watch lists, and the sort of knuckle draggers and pond scum who attend Britain First demos.

Access = activists, sometimes wonder what my spellchecker is on...

The last riots were 2011. Tory administration and riots go together like horse and carriage so I'd say we're in for more riots whatever. Whether there's rioting over Brexit outcomes depends entirely on what they are and how they're stage-managed.

it is very significant (the most people who have ever voted for anything in Britain ever voted for this)

And yet they didn't even know what they were voting for, as there was no Brexit plan. What does that tell you about its true significance?

Yesterday 13:00 3amEternal

Lolz at baby boomer civil unrest. When would they find the time to riot between cruising?

ODFOD

Manon -
And yet they didn't even know what they were voting for, as there was no Brexit plan. What does that tell you about its true significance?

Wow how condescending can you sound

So you voted remain. What plan was remains. Stay as we are and hope for the best!

the most people who have ever voted for anything in Britain ever voted for this

The problem - and this is the chink that the government will exploit - is that while "remain" voters largely voted for one single, defined and achievable thing (staying in the EU), "leave" voters fall into groups with very different visions about what outcome they were seeking:

• the "sovereignty"/ "soft" leavers who would be keen to join the EEA and retain free movement. They want to stay in the single market. These people may not be extremely numerous, but they make up a large proportion of the "educated leavers" - people like my dad. They are also politically quite homogenous - varying from the centre to the "mid right", with liberal/ libertarian leanings. If you add up remainers and these people, you'd have a definite majority for being inside the single market.

• the anti-EU obsessives, who want out of the EU at ANY cost. This group unites people on the right of the tory party and in UKIP, along with far right groups, and also people on the left of the Labour Party. It's not a politically homogenous group and I don't believe these people are particularly numerous. They are very vocal, on MN and elsewhere on social media, but they are primarily keyboard warriers.

• the "disaffected many" - people concerned about the costs of immigration to their communities, but also those who simply want a convenient scapegoat. This group is large but very varied and it doesnt know what it wants. The leave campaign promised these people that they could have their cake and eat it, so whatever the outcome, they are going to be disgruntled.

Apart from group two, I see very little reason to think that there is going to be unrest, except at the ballot box. Even group two is going to have trouble organising a decent riot. Put the BNP and the SWP on a march together and they'll fight each other rather than the establishment.

Yes yes to the 2011 riots.
Given the way the dear people of my area started acting towards anyone who looked different in the immediate aftermath of the referendum, including violence, civil unrest doesn't seem so illogical.

tiggy the biggest crime in all this was asking a simple question in order to solve a exceptionally complex problem.

Surfer Did you actually read what I was responding to (a 'civil war might happen' comment).
I'm quite well aware that you won.
Hooray for all of you. Well done, etc. However, a lot of remainers aren't going to shut up/roll over/not try to influence what happens next. I'm really surprised you don't seem to understand the importance of what's going on and why people are still fighting this.

• Universities are already being adversely affected link here
• Other industries are under threat
• A survey in Wales indicates many regret their vote and would vote differently now.
• The pound is tanking

But we should all just shrug and say 'yeah but... Surfer won' so we should all just stand by and watch our country go down the drain.

Surfer General elections change our society far more than leaving the EU every will.

I very much doubt it and if that was the case, what on earth was the point of this referendum?

If you ask 100 remain voters, they'll probably disagree with their vision of what a remain future would have looked like as well.

I'm sure that's true, but that's not what the referndum asked. Fundamentally there is only one way of remaining in the EU. But there are several ways of leaving it.

Wow how condescending can you sound

I'm sorry you think so, please tell me what the Brexit plan is. An EEA EU-lite model? Single market in or out? WTO rules while we renogiate all the trade deals? What's the status of EU residents here and UK residents abroad? What's the plan for NI? And post-Brexit shock to the economy?

A survey in Wales indicates many regret their vote and would vote differently now.

Was every leaver in Wales asked then? no thought not every Remainer also asked in order to make sure they haven't also changed their mind.

Everyone all of a sudden taking notice of polls as they always predict so well don't they?

Truth is the vote has happened. We now have to work out the best way to exit.

Even group two is going to have trouble organising a decent riot.
Early in the day the riots of 2011 there had been a football game at Tottenham. It was a fairly ordinary match day. There were extra police about as usual. The last dregs of fans were clearing out as the protest started at the police station. No one planned to start a riot that day, though some may have wanted some violence. All it took was a spark. And that spark started a fire that hit loads of places. No one needs to plan a riot, they just need to set a spark off in the right/wrong set of circumstances.

Definitely tiggy the arrogance of that man was appalling. Having said that what I took out of his return was that he was a shit negotiator

Was every leaver in Wales asked then?
That's not how surveys work, Piglet.
And yes, they did apparently ask remainers, too.

link to news report

Truth is the vote has happened. We now have to work out the best way to exit.
...which should have been considered before the vote.

Manor - I don't know what the britex plan is. It's still being decided.

I don't know what the remain plan was. Can you tell me that

Problem is, every voter in Wales was asked, on the 23rd. The polls were wrong before the referendum and they may also be wrong after the referendum

It has to be invoked.

Anything else is a betrayal of the people's will.

And yes, I believe anything else will result in violence in the streets - and that violence will be directed at immigrants/anyone who looks different.

Manor - I don't know what the britex plan is

Exactly. And that was my point, no leaver voter knew precisely what they were voting for, because there was no plan.

Remain voters were voting for status quo.