Boris outmaneovered. Et tu Gove & Corbyn? The Westministenders Hunger Games Continues

[RedToothBrush]

Following the Machiavellian Govian shambles? Utterly gobsmacked at the Labour clusterfuck?

Who will strike next?

Who will the shadowy hand of Osborne back?
Can Gove be launched back into space and back to the planet he came from?
Can May save the country from almost certain doom?
Will Leadsom patronise us all to death (whilst silently stabbing people in the back with a sweet smile)?
Can Johnson make a decision he can stick to, and can we persuade him to give up being a politician?
Will Steven Crabb get rid of that god awful beard?

Will Corbyn shoot himself in the other foot?
Will Angela Eagle get a spine and just stand?
Who the fuck is Owen Smith?
Will the Blairites be foiled and damned?
Are momentum a bunch of thugs or a force for a better, for the people?

Will Farage disappear back under his rock?
Will people wake up to Arron Banks?
What will Dominic Cummings destroy next?

Have we seen a coup d'état?
How do we improve democracy and representation?

All these questions and more.
Sense of humour compulsory. No experience necessary though

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1 Previous thread 1

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2672388-Has-Boris-been-outmanoevered-Will-someone-please-tell-me-who-is-in-charge Previous thread 2

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/a2673982-Have-Boris-and-Jeremy-been-stabbed-in-the-back-Please-can-we-have-some-leaders Previous thread 3

Chalala Well, to be honest, neither do I. That conjures up a mental image I could well do without. But I just would truly like to see May step up and point out the sexist media coverage isn't appropriate. Wishful thinking. Surely she could think of a clever put down to them that wouldn't look aggressive. (because god forbid a female looks aggressive)

I have now finally caught up (phew!) and would like to thank everyone for measured and interesting discussion here, as well as the many informative links. I can only apologise for crashing in with footy comments when the thread had moved on. As you were...

Just for a bit of balance on the discussion about campaign strategy. This is why Mervyn thinks it was the Remain campaign which set the tone and also who lost because of their own misinformation and exaggerations.

I have now found a whole Youtube channel devoted to him. Unbelievably happy on a personal level, but lots and lots of interesting analysis for anyone interested in the mechanics of Brexit.

One of the reasons I laughed at all the economic forecasting from Remain was that I think forecasting only works at the margins where you are predicting progress around a steady state.

I think this is one of those situations where Schumpeter and his waves of creative destruction has more to say.

Anyone got any thoughts on who will replace GO in the various leadership scenarios? I had assumed AL would have been the natural choice for BoJo but I don't see that with TM or Gove.

Yesterday's Times had an interesting article by Patrick Hosking on why interest rate cuts could make the problem worse with some echos of my thoughts on QE.

One or two interesting snippets:

the IMF has declared Deutsche Bank as the biggest threat to global financial security. More broadly other EU banks are not as well capitalised as in the UK because EU stress tests are lower than ours and are far more exposed to economic shock. Within the EU this gave them a competitive advantage as we were bound into supporting them - post Brexit this is less the case.

The IMF had been calling for GO to be more expansionary prior to Brexit and there is a bit on the potential fiscal expansion.

The property section reads to me that it is assuming a significant property downturn in central London and a withdrawal of international funding. This had in fact already started prior to Brexit vote. The Times questions whether this impact will go much beyond London.

And YY to the sexist remarks about Theresa May, although I caught myself about to say something about her frizzy hair during her leadership bid speech and it prompted a conversation along these lines with DH. I am no better than the media, although at least I had the insight to recognise it was bad form.

The cynic in me thinks she knew what she was doing when she invited the DM journalist into her kitchen and answered their questions about children.

I'm sure she thinks it's distasteful and sexist, but she may also think it's necessary.

I think GO will stay chancellor under May. She is close to DC and GO seems to be recognised for doing a good job (by business/financial institutions, not the public).

I would definitely support May over any of the other Tory candidates.

Happy birthday to BigChoc and me!

There's a great thread elsewhere abiut the actual (rather than predicted) economic effects of Brexit as they unfold.

I'm concerned about the constant negative focus on "uncertainty". It seems to be a political rather than an economic argument.

"We must never change anything, lest businesses are unhappy."

That's not an argument that works for me.

A lot needed to change even without Brexit. Even if businesses want to continue overpaying their CEOs, underinvesting in their business, avoiding and evading tax, and declining to offer decent jobs.

I also wonder why, if this uncertainty will put a temporary halt to investment, we are not hearing about the boom in investment post-certainty?

Given that uncertainty is now a fact, why should avoiding uncertainty be our goal at this point?

It seems economic arguments are being used to recommend the most conservative way forward. Not because they are true, but because they are convenient.

X-post howabout

Will check out those videos.

I don't necessarily think uncertainty is a horrible thing - there's always some, isn't there? When I mentioned it above, I was referring to the delaying of triggering A50 as someone suggested waiting until January 2018. I can't imagine the EU is going to be happy with that, and the more we annoy them and make things difficult, the more difficult they can make things for us. Not to mention that it's just pointless to put it off that long. Make plans, and trigger it the first of January 2017 at the latest, IMO. Aligns with their fiscal year and gives us time to prepare, but we can then move forward with negotiations. The longer we postpone it, the more the public will start pushing not to do it at all, and I just don't see that as an option anymore.

We already know about Michael Gove's sex life - his wife pretends to be asleep to avoid it. And who can blame her?

www.thepoke.co.uk/2015/12/16/sarah-vines-column-offers-endless-insights-michael-goves-sex-life/

Nope, sorry. Cannot look. Some things cannot be unseen.

Totally agree about 2018, Ginger.

Gove suggested serving the notice on Jan 2018 and that seemed wise to me as once we serve it we have no choice but to leave in 2 years.
If we serve it and say we want to remain the EEA not EU I can just about live with that as a remainer.

We could indeed serve it on 1 Jan 2017 particularly if we are going for the EEA option (Norway) which is a lot simpler than not being in any of EU, EFTA EEA.

It is not wise to piss off all of the people you have to negotiate with by taking the piss with the timing of your negotiations.

As a general approach, I think if you hear Michael Gove saying something that sounds wise, it's probably worth chacking out the reality of the situation.

The deal on the ground seems to be that we have until the end of this year/stsrt of this uear to get our shit together and invoke.

Another year on top of that is just dreamland.

The EU wanted us to invoke it immediately. They grudgingly were okay with waiting until January 2017 or spring 2017 at the absolute outside. There is no way they will be agreeable with 2018. I think that if we even broach the idea of summer 2017, they will get impatient.

And I think the EEA will only be more of the same, and people will NOT be happy with this. If you're going to make a break, make a break. The EEA is essentially a poorer but similar situation to what we're in now, but without any say.

BBC NEWS: Gove, on how to cook your own goose.

The many occasions Michael Gove said he didn't want to be prime minister
Posted at
09:04
Michael Gove
Reuters
Michael Gove's shock decision to stand for the Conservative Party leadership follows multiple occasions in which he insisted he never would. Politics.co.uk has helpfully pulled together some of those occasions...

On 3 June, he told Sky News:

"I can tell you I'm absolutely not. The one thing I can tell you is there are lots of talented people who could be prime minister after David Cameron but count me out."

Just over a month ago, he told the Telegraph:

"I don't want to do it and there are people who are far better equipped than me to do it. And there are people who have advocated Leave and people who have advocated Remain who are far better than me to do it."

On Question Time in 2013, he said:

"The one thing I do know having seen David Cameron up close is it takes extraordinary reserves of patience of judgement of character to lead this country and he has it and I don't and I think it's important to recognise in life you’ve reached an appropriate point."

On World at One in 2012, he said:

"There are lots of other folk, including in the cabinet who could easily be prime minister, I am not one of them. I could not be prime minister, I am not equipped to be prime minister, I don’t want to be prime minister."

The same year, he told Standpoint magazine:

"I'm constitutionally incapable of it. There's a special extra quality you need that is indefinable, and I know I don't have it. There's an equanimity, an impermeability and a courage that you need. There are some things in life you know it's better not to try."

Also::: (I'd watch this, but I loathe Nicky Morgan)

A packed Sunday schedule - Peston, Murnaghan and Neil
Posted at
08:59
Also coming up in a packed morning of politics, Home Secretary and would-be Conservative leader Theresa May will be on ITV's Peston on Sunday, along with Education Secretary Nicky Morgan and shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry.

On Sky's Murnaghan programme, another of Mrs May's rivals for the top Tory job - Liam Fox - will appear. We'll also hear from the two sides of the Labour row, as there'll be interviews with shadow chancellor John McDonnell - a close ally of Jeremy Corbyn - and Heidi Alexander, who quit as shadow health secretary last week in protest at his leadership.

On BBC1's Sunday Politics, guests include Labour peer Lord Prescott and MP Barry Gardiner, shadow secretary of state for energy and climate change.

So what sort of deal would you like to see in place gingerivy that the EU will realistically agree to?

I'm "people" and I'd like the country to return to some sort of economic stability. If that means having a worse deal with EU than we do currently as some folks decided that it might solve our problems but have discovered it doesn't, then fine I'm happy to crack on, on that basis.

If there is something else that we could have that allows us to trade with Europe that's better, then I'd be happy to consider that as well, but no one has articulated what that would look like.

I don't know, because obviously we won't know until they start negotiating. But I'm loathe to simply trade one set of shackles (EU membership) for another that is equally restrictive and expensive (EEA). I think they need to investigate all other options, and look closer at the possibility of a separate level of agreement with the EU that suits the UK through negotiations. Why give in (EEA) before we've even begun to negotiate? That's pointless.

I'd like the country to return to some sort of economic stability

You mean like now?

We have political instability.

But the ecomony seems pretty stable.

Felas that is why I asked the question about the chancellor. That is also my suspicion and why she is absolutely my worst choice of candidate.

I also think it would be extremely unwise for the Tory party to give her a non-contested coronation and then have her keep GO when he has just done a complete reverse and even seems to agree himself that he is completely incompetent in all respects.

In other news NS is calling for the UK to guarantee the status of the 170k EU citizens (I think including students) in Scotland. That is not very many to absorb into a population of 5.5 million and highlights why it is different.

The EU is not reformable, says Leadsom

The Andrew Marr Show
Posted at
09:29
Now up, Andrea Leadsom, energy minister, Leave campaigner and would-be Tory leader. She's asked why she used to be in favour of being in the EU.

"This has been a journey," she tells Andrew Marr. She says she and other Conservative ministers tried to get significant reform of the EU, but when the eventual renegotiated package was offered, "it was very clear that the EU is just not reformable".

She says the risks of remaining in the EU have "magnified greatly" in recent years, citing the hard times suffered by those in Greece, who have been "sacrificed" by Brussels.

Happy birthday Doinit and BigChoc

I think it will be very interesting to watch the media over the next few weeks and analyse the coverage for the front runners.

With regards to 'the people' I think it is important that we stop seeing people who voted leave as one group. I've discussed this with a leave voting friend and she is expecting something like EEA. Her reason was more about wanting to be a global player.

My Dad on the other hand voted leave because when he voted in 1975 it was nor for what the EU has become. My Brother is an expat and didn't vote but would have because he feels the EU is going to be implode and he wants us to be ahead of the curve.

My BIL voted leave to put the Great back into Britain according to his FB feed. All have separate reasons. I don't know what they would or would not find acceptable but I don't think we can at this point lump them and their visions for the future together.

I'm.starting to think that Theresa May is a poor choice for PM.

If she keeps Osborne, who has been a woeful Chancellor, on in the job, and sends Chris "book burner" Grayling to negotiate EEA status in Europe, it will all feel a bit like a Tory power grab.

What are our thoughts on Obama seeming to roll back on our "back of the queue" status?

That's some great news for iur negotiating position. Depending on how we deal with it. And what his true intentions are.

It won't have pleased Juncker.