Boris outmaneovered. Et tu Gove & Corbyn? The Westministenders Hunger Games Continues

[RedToothBrush]

Following the Machiavellian Govian shambles? Utterly gobsmacked at the Labour clusterfuck?

Who will strike next?

Who will the shadowy hand of Osborne back?
Can Gove be launched back into space and back to the planet he came from?
Can May save the country from almost certain doom?
Will Leadsom patronise us all to death (whilst silently stabbing people in the back with a sweet smile)?
Can Johnson make a decision he can stick to, and can we persuade him to give up being a politician?
Will Steven Crabb get rid of that god awful beard?

Will Corbyn shoot himself in the other foot?
Will Angela Eagle get a spine and just stand?
Who the fuck is Owen Smith?
Will the Blairites be foiled and damned?
Are momentum a bunch of thugs or a force for a better, for the people?

Will Farage disappear back under his rock?
Will people wake up to Arron Banks?
What will Dominic Cummings destroy next?

Have we seen a coup d'état?
How do we improve democracy and representation?

All these questions and more.
Sense of humour compulsory. No experience necessary though

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1 Previous thread 1

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2672388-Has-Boris-been-outmanoevered-Will-someone-please-tell-me-who-is-in-charge Previous thread 2

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/a2673982-Have-Boris-and-Jeremy-been-stabbed-in-the-back-Please-can-we-have-some-leaders Previous thread 3

I wanted to leave the Eu because it didn't work properly. Countries watched as Greece corrupted/bankrupted itself into a disaster. We watch on weekly basis as hundreds, or even thousands, of refugee men women and children drown in the med or struggle to survive in shambolic camps, whilst some of what should be the best brains/ leaders in the world just look the other way!!!!!! Appalling.
Theresa May,'s brief as home sec this last year was first and foremost to reduce immigration to tens of thousands - had she even remotely succeeded in her brief we would probably not be where we are now . If there had been evidence that at last immigration numbers were being controlled by gov the vote could have gone the other way imo.
Had Theresa May actually spoken to the media with a justifiable explanation as to why she had utterly failed then the vote might have gone the other way. But no she's the modest type, doesn't go from interview to interview, which is very convenient if you've totally cocked up on the job and don't want to answer questions.

I've just been directed her from another thread

Please can I repost Red's link from a couple of pages ago, in case any of you missed it? I can't believe that it is OK for politicians to lie to this extent.

www.change.org/p/restore-truthful-politics-create-an-independent-office-to-monitor-political-campaigns

There is a meeting of ukip's national executive in Monday, at which carswell and farage are due to go head to head.

I can't believe we're heading towards Brexit.

Make it stop. Now.
It's such a Pandora's box. No one needs that.

Are UKIP (or puki) as I now like to think of them having a leadership crisis too? What a shame that would be.

This thread has been wonderful in discussing the party leadership battles and how things are moving in government, but as we get on, we sometimes slide into danger of rehashing the referendum, which will drag this thread into the possibility of being like the hundred other threads on MN that just argue about whether or not the referendum was valid and should be redone. I hope that we can resist that temptation.

On a separate note - are there any developments expected this weekend? I'm curious to see if all the candidates for the Tory leadership will actually continue through first votes or if they will back out, putting their support towards someone else? And has Labour disappeared into a black hole? JC is just going about his regular business, and the "challengers" seem to have fizzled out.

Hamish Would Farage step down in favour of someone that might have more mainstream appeal? I suppose there is a possibility, but he seems pretty ego-driven.

I don't understand why remain and the current MPs are accepting the result of this referendum.

I think the short answer to this is because the Remain result was much worse when looked at in an English context. The two Remain regions of the UK were Scotland and N Ireland. Labour / Liberals and Conservatives only have 1 Westminster Parliamentary seat each in Scotland.

Excluding Scotland and N Ireland the result is:

Remain 14 million Leave 16.1 million

Wales is getting a lot of flack for voting Leave but it is far less Eurosceptic than England (excluding London):

                                             Remain                                  Leave

London 2.3m 1.5m
England (ex London) 10.9m 13.9m
Wales 0.8m 0.9m

Looking at the Remain vote further, if you overlay the GE vote share and do some rough and ready analysis of which particular areas vote which way by party and in the referendum it starts to become even more telling. I am not sure how trustworthy the polling is on this but the Conservative Remain share is quoted at around 45% and the Labour Remain around 60%. However in the Conservative voting areas of London the Remain vote was about 80%. These are already Conservative seats and are unlikely to change despite a Brexit vote. Similarly in places like JC's Islington the Remain vote was about 75% and they continue to support JC's Eurosceptic albeit Remain on balance stance. They are likely to be satisfied if the Brexit is handled well. This illustrates that even in London the threat to Labour is from Leave voters defecting to the Conservatives and UKIP in places like Barking. The threat to the Conservatives is also from UKIP in their own areas. Bear in mind that in the GE UKIP had a 13% vote share but only 1 MP. Also worth bearing in mind that the Liberals lost 15% vote share at the last GE. I assume both Labour and Conservative have priced in Remainers defecting back to their natural party. (The behaviour of the Tory majority government has made the Liberals look much better in terms of the coalition). This analysis broadly replicates throughout the whole country.

Even in Scotland (where I live) the highest turnout and highest Remain percentages (75-80%) were in Conservative localities. Conservative voters in Scotland voted to protect both Unions and RD has correctly positioned herself to protect the UK Union over EU membership to reflect this.

www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/elections-and-referendums/upcoming-elections-and-referendums/eu-referendum/electorate-and-count-information

This is why I think the behaviour of the PLP is absolutely bonkers.

My understanding of Austria is that the result was much closer and the challenge surrounded suspicions of electoral fraud in relation to postal votes.

MissMargie how does us leaving the EU help Greece or the refugees in the Mediterranean? (genuine question, I'm trying to understand your argument).

Sorry, you're right, no point in discussing the referendum arguments again. Focus on the politics. I've been loving this threat, it's keeping me sane!

Why are people so anti-Corbyn? Surely the policies should matter more than political ambitions?

I completely disagree, actually... it's no use having amazing policies if no one is listening to you and you have no chance of winning a GE.

I follow politics but not being British I'm not instinctively "with" any party. My sense from the past year is that Labour has been completely transparent, the only major coverage it's gotten has been for antisemitism problems and infighting. Now I don't know if this is Corbyn's fault or the media's fault, but I don't care, the result is the same. It's not working.

The country hasn't had an effective opposition in months, and something has to change. I don't see how keeping the same leader, who now doesn't have the support of his MPs, is going to help Labour become more effective.

From a different perspective, I have another problem with Corbyn, which is his pathetic referendum campaign. I blame him. Not only him, mind you, but him among others.

I have this feeling that because Blair was media savvy and also a right-wing warmongerer, many Labour supporters are throwing the baby with the bath water. Spin cu

MissMargie I also voted Leave because I was appalled at the EU (mostly Germany) interventions in Greece and in handling the migrant crisis. The Syrian migrants who are now being settled in the UK direct from the ME are in an incomparably better position than the ones being ping ponged over between Greece and Turkey. I have first hand knowledge of how the ones in Scotland are getting on. This is the one area of policy where I think DC did a fantastic job.

DH was swithering between TM and AL but he has judged her Home Office record in exactly the same unfavourable way as you do MissMargie. - He is not a Tory voter and is Eurosceptic lite - hardly surprising given he is English/French and living in Scotland.

howabout thanks so much for that really helpful analysis.

MissMargie to reply to one of your questions from a "politics" perspective, I don't think Tory members will hold it against May that she didn't keep the Tory immigration pledge. Everyone recognises that the pledge was completely unrealistic and impossible to fulfill. And she went above and beyond in her attempts.

(but as illustrated by a post above mine, it could maybe be used against her in at the next GE, if the issue is still prominent then...)

I've never been a fan of TM, however, in all fairness, I have to ask. Has she been unable to get immigration numbers down due to incompetence/poor performance at her job or because it's tied to other things that she cannot regulate (such as EU rules). I am well aware of the difference between people coming from the EU and people immigrating from outside the EU (as I have ILR myself), but I cannot help but think this whole immigration thing is utterly muddied in the public's eyes. To some, it's everyone coming from elsewhere, to others, it just the people coming in from the EU, which is much different. I'm not completely clued up as to exactly what she is supposed to be dealing with in regards to immigration - is it ALL of it? Or just some parts of it?

I can't help but think that if the government had put forward a clear picture of the different "types" of immigration (within EU, from outside the EU, vs illegal) and how each is set up and such, then in general this would be less of an issue. I think they haven't clarified this, as it benefits them to use this confusion to manipulate the public.

And I know people that are clueless as to how the benefits thing regarding immigration works to - people that should know it for their job. When I was in hospital, I was approached by their staff member that deals with patients from other countries (yes, sorry, not a clue what her official title was). Anyway, she basically told me that as I was married to a UK citizen, I just had to produce a copy of the marriage certificate/license to be entitled to care with the NHS. I told her that wasn't correct, that marriage alone isn't enough. She needed a copy of my ILR. She insisted she only needed a marriage license copy. So I gave her one, along with a copy of my ILR, with a letter stating that here's the marriage license, but please keep the copy of the ILR as well, so that there are no further issues. If she doesn't know it, and it's her job, how can they expect everyone in the general public to know it? Again, it allows the government to manipulate the public to some extent - such as the whole "people coming here and using the NHS" or "people coming here and getting benefits right away" whereas that's not really what happens generally.

I'm really amazed and worried that the UK doesn't have anything body in place to monitor electoral campaign, at least to be sure that it doesn't lead to racist or xenophobic content.
It seems that the U.K. has been too sheltered until now to realise that rules are necessary and they need someone to impose them too.

However, what it needs isn't a 'body' such as the ASA. Whoever came up with that idea has clearly no idea of what it is. The ASA is NOT regulatory and has no power. The only thing it can do is to then put the complaints to the Courts who then can decide if there is an issue or not.
So the first step is a LAW that makes xenophobic and racist comments illegal during a campaign. And a system to impose it (I would gather that such a law doesn't exist or someone would already have started something?)
And then it needs a regulatory body WITH powers to stop said politicians to monitor it. And it needs to be across the board, not just forcpolitical campaigns for a particular vote

Ginger I think i may be one of the few people who actually thinks immigration is a good thing. I understand the issues it creates in some areas but I think it generally is a positive net contributer to our society in so many ways. So regarding TM it is more her generally Right Wing stance that I am more concerned with. But she seems the only option at this moment as Gove would sell us to the highest bidder, Fox and Crabb would put LGBT rights back decades and I don't know much about Andrea really

I so want a phoenix to rise from the ashes of the Labour Party and guide us through - but am losing hope every hour Dear Leader and his crew of 2 stay in post. I wonder if they are thinking about putting up good old Dianne for Leader in his place- now that really would be funny

Howabout, that's a v depressing thought, that Labour is going to try and court the 10% UKIP vote (or rather, carry on doing it, since that's what they've been doing for a while) . They are supposed to lay out their vision and make the case to everyone for what they believe in, not get busy sending out subliminal messages to a fraction of people and just waffle on to core voters hoping they don't mind too much. It also doesn't work!

GingerIvy I agree with your post.

TM was supposed to deal with all of it, but EU immigration that she could do nothing about is already in the hundreds of thousands, so the pledge was dead on the water before she even started.
She could only try to curb non-EU immigration, and she has - really, really harshly. But even with the harshest possible policies in place, the country still needs to import students and skilled workers, which also adds up to hundreds of thousand.

Completely agree that the devil is in the details and the public is very muddled on the details.

Oh and another thing about Dear Leader - he had one of the best/worst depending how you look at it) records of voting against the whip of all MP's EVER. Hardly a surprise he isn't giving a shit now - he has never been on the same side as anyone else

I especially like this in his wiki: Corbyn started a course in Trade Union Studies at North London Polytechnic but left after a series of arguments with his tutors over the curriculum.

So he's always been a cantankerous, know it all, shit. I've said it before - he is Scargill in a cardie - willing to destroy the LP for his 'principles'

how interesting comment because my first reaction was that, to be able to really solve the problem if te migrants from the ME, what we need is a political Europe to get able to deal with it. Trying to send people with quota to different countries was clearly not going to work and certainly not enough to solve the whole issue itself.
But that's the very thing that nearly all British people are against.

There is also the argument that the migrants stuck between Tuekey and Greece
1- are not in the EU yet so how is that it's up to the EU alone to solve what is a major INTERNATIONAL
problem (and will only the solved as an international effort starting with wondering if our military efforts are doing any good, looking at the US and Russia involvement etc). Looking at the few refugees settle in Scotland (note NOT in England...) is very restrictive IMO
2- the ones that are arriving in Greece are illegal immigrants. So should be treated as such (it obviously would help if all EU countries had the same policies around that - see my point about a political Europe)

Show I absolutely agree with this: Gove would sell us to the highest bidder, Fox and Crabb would put LGBT rights back decades I do think immigration is a good thing (since I am an immigrant! ). I don't like the imbalance in the current system. I would prefer to see the same standards being applied across the board, no matter where they are from. To anyone outside the EU, getting into the UK is only possible now if you are quite well off - people in lower paying jobs haven't got a chance. That strikes me as wrong.

Everything in Greece, these are people fleeing wars, do you want them to trot back to it? When they're not fleeing a war they are fleeing desperately sad situations, are we so hard-up ourselves that we can't help them a bit more?

Sorry, that's off-thread.
Waiting for Labour Party Phoenix here too.