Has Boris been outmanoevered? Will someone please tell me who is in charge?

[RedToothBrush]

Thread two from

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1

Thumbing our noses at the EU for 40 years is pretty much why we are in this mess.

So no, I really don't wish for that.

Or negotiators who wish for that.

Osborne is showing very little loyalty (like Gove: Dave really does pick 'em) to be considering endorsing Boris instead of May.
I think that is all part of the out manoeuvring and it's to make boris eat the shit.

Jeremy Hunt tells the Today programme people want "a vision for what our life is going to be like outside the EU and a plan to get there".

He says the best option is for "a Norway-plus model" - "we want the access to the single market Norway has but with some sensible controls on movement".

He says that deal is not currently on the table and it's going to be "tough" to get it - and Article 50 shouldn't be triggered until it is.

The health secretary says any deal would then "need some kind of democratic endorsement" - and his preference would be for it to be part of the Conservative manifesto for the 2020 general election - although he says a second referendum is also an option.

Sorry, but someone needs to shut him down. Does he seriously think that this will hold until 2020? The man's a lunatic!

Thank you all for this thread and the links, it reminds me why I love Mumsnet. Could someone explain what EEA means?
I can't believe that BJ didn't turn up yesterday and that Gove stood behind the Speaker like a scared toddler hiding behind his mum. Pathetic.
And as for 'man of the people' Farage. He went to Dulwich college ffs. Current fees are £18,000 pa for day boys and double that for weekly boarders. How many 'ordinary' people can afford that? And then he worked in the city. And his dad was a stockbroker.
I just cannot see any way this will end well, there only seem to be least bad options. I've never wanted to turn the clock back so much.

Doin I didn't say it was reasonable.

I doubt very much that Cameron wanted Johnson at the Commons yesterday. He's a slightly loose cannon IMO and the last thing Cameron would want at this point is another debate or to have to hash out this and that with Johnson. Much more safe to simply answer what he can, defer what he cannot to the next government, and step back. I don't really like Cameron, but grudgingly he handled it fairly well.

a small part of me would love to see the UK bounce back in a big way and be able to thumb our noses at the EU. (come on, secretly wouldn't you like that?)

Usually it's the jilted party that daydreams of a triumphant vengeful comeback, not the party doing the jilting!

And no, I wouldn't like that, because I'm an EU citizen living in the UK, so my loyalties are divided. I passionately want the EU to come out of this better and stronger. I also would really like for the UK to do reasonably well economically, because you know, I've made my life here. So I'm hoping that long term, the two are compatible. "Hope" being the operative word here.

Could someone explain what EEA means

It's basically the Single Market area, so an area of free trade in Europe. It overlaps with the EU but is not exactly the same, some countries are in it (Norway) but not in the EU. To be in it you have to abide by all the EU rules, including all the fees and free movement, but you don't get representation at the EU.

I didn't vote Leave, Chalalala. I just don't like the EU much. I struggled with this to be honest, but felt that once the voting was done, we needed to move forward. I don't feel jilted, really, just resigned? Tired of all the conflict, and want to get past the constant going around in circles over this. I hate the chaos of redoing it over and over, the concern of possible civil unrest (and can sympathise with those that feel utterly let down by the government), concerned that the uncertainty will do far more damage long term than a decision either way would do, and quite frankly annoyed at Cameron for even putting us in this position. The EU has always struck me as mobsters, requiring protection money to play in their playground, while slowly trying to grab more and more power over us to hold us in check. It's a mixed bag. How boring would it be if we all thought alike? It's too complicated for it to be black or white - it's all a muddled grey for me.

Place marking, am at work and want to join in later.

Hey all. Sigh. What a mess. Taking a few days off from all of this but keep being drawn back with morbid fascination.
It's bizarre feeling like Cassandra

I didn't mean you personally GingerIvy, more "Britain" in general as the party doing the jilting. I understand what you're saying, and I accept that most British people were never going to buy into the EU dream, that's fine. Now we need to move on and try to find a solution that works for both Britain and the EU - it's the only way to settle this thing for good.

Incidentally I'm more and more convinced that overturning the referendum result would not be a good idea, no matter how it's done. It would poison UK politics for decades, and it would also poison the EU. It has to be a clean break, so everyone can get on with their life and start rebuilding.

RiceCrispies is correct about Merkel in many respects I think.

This morning she is talking about stopping the "contagion". This is an important word and shows her fears.

She is caught between that and the lessons of history which she more than anyone in Europe will understand. We need to be punished but we can only be punished so much.

It is dangerous for her to do more, as again, that's breeds more of the same sentiments that are going on, and is just as contagious.

As for second referendums etc and a second general election, I'm starting to get spooked by the whole idea right now.

I very much think that a second referendum is a BAD BAD idea. We have already seen that asking the public what they think, didn't quite have the effect we expected.

The Mail on Sunday commissioned a survey about Bregretters. It found that 7.1% of people regretted voting leave. But more bizarrely 4.4% were saying they regretted voting remain! I ran the numbers on it. That would have put Leave on 50.38%...

Not to mention that, but that unofficial Leave.Eu press release that was put up last night rattled me. It made me realise just how much of this we are not getting as we assume that everyone wants the UK to be a thriving state. No quite so.

There has been a bit of talk about the head of the official Leave campaign Dominic Cummings on another thread. Civil Servant, who many think is slightly unhinged and wants to shake things up by using high stakes brinkmanship strategies.

Now I think we need to talk a little bit about Mr Arron Banks head of leave.eu. So down into the rabbit warren we go... hold onto your tin foil hats folks!

That press release was a two fingered salute. Its also PR. Its another call to appeal to people who are disaffected and want to create trouble. We do not want to give this man any more time and opportunity to stir up the public. It will destabilise us further.

A couple of quotes for you:
“Whatever happens at election time you get the same . . . there’s no situation that a politician can’t make worse.”

“The one thing I find interesting is the complete bankruptcy of the UK state,” he says. “The only redeeming feature is, there’s no money left therefore the state by definition will have to be completely and radically taken to pieces.”

Banks has a totally nihilistic view of the current political and financial establishment. He is an archaist. When called before the commons select committee about the EU referendum, they labelled him as deliberately difficult and obstructive. He has no respect for the establishment and its personal.

The company he co-founded accused him of “conspiracy” and went after him for £7million in damages for using confidential information to snatch its customers, poach staff and “unlawfully” compete with it when he set up his new Gibraltar based company. There have been accusations that his tax contributions to the UK are not quite what they should be.

His ex-wife has been embroiled in accusations that she was a KGB agent, with an ex-KGB agent saying she was the best spy they had for decades. Banks thinks this is all funny I assume as he bought her two cars number plates KB2 SPY and XM15SPY. Make of that what you will...

She took out an harassment order against Banks after their divorce.

Banks also threatened UKIP's only MP Carswell with deselection jn September unless he supported the Leave.Eu campaign. Remember THAT poster was a Leave.Eu poster rather than an official Leave one.

It also makes me wonder a little bit about the relationship between Banks and Farage.

To sum it up his aim is precisely to bring about utter carnage to the UK and the UK political and financial systems. He is safe, he is fine. He is using public anger, having a good laugh about it all and getting one over the things he hates.

Giving the public mood and what he's up to and has support for another popularist vote under the current climate is a very, very dangerous idea.

I would have thought that Merkel, is quite rightly frankly shitting her pants over the whole situation - as of course this type of contagion will spread to Germany if not stopped. And I would not be surprised if she quietly and privately bends over backwards to give Cameron some sort of get out of jail free card in the form of 'an offer we can not refuse'. The worry is, that she could appear to look like part of the EU mafia in the way this is done, if she is not careful. She has to make it look like the UK has won something to the UK people, but look like we have been punished and this is a route that no one else in Europe will want to go down at the same time. Whether this is even possible is an interesting question...

As for Corbyn. I have mixed views here. DH points out, he appeals to the people in a way that his fellow MPs don't get. Given all of the above, that might not be such a bad thing. Though Corbyn himself has been suggested as wanting things to get so bad that essentially a revolution is forced and we are not there yet. The question hangs over him as to whether he is a slightly nicer face of what Aaron Banks wants.

So yes I suspect the Boris as dictator option, is starting to look quite appealing...

But I very much doubt it will be Johnson though. Simply because Johnson and Cummings have already shown they have cataclysmically miss judged the mood of the people and the EU. They thought they could stir up enough and control it all. They were out smarted by the likes of Aaron Banks at their own game. I doubt that Merkel would stand for it, for example... (and yep I think we are at the bend over and take it point rather than the empowered Independence day point - and actually the EU probably do have UK interests at heart more than we think here, as we have a power vacuum and economic problem through our own stupidity that could bite all them on the bum. We could be effectively being bailed out by the EU here, in order to maintain democracy as crackers as the idea sounds)

I certainly feel like I am totally oblivious to so much of this and have been in a safe little bubble of the status quo.

I think a lot of people need to wake up a little bit to the gigantic power games going on. From Trump, to Putin, to Banks...

'And you are back in the room' said Derren Brown.
Think fluffy bunnies and LOL cats. It's all going to be great, now we have our Independence.

I have had MNetter sending me PMs in the last 24 hours telling me Remain voters have had NLP done on them and that the Leave voters are free thinkers.
rocks in the corner gently

EU Parliament Emergency Session being broadcast on BBC News now.

Its not started terribly well for us.

A joke about everyone being there and not going for the exit, was met by loud applause and laughter.

Sorry, Juncker is not exactly being subtle, eh?

Remain voters had NLP done on them

Seriously?

To be honest, atm, the biggest issue is not the EU.
The issue is the complete and utter disintegration of the political scene. There is no one there. Not from the Conservative, not from the Labour.
Other parties such as the LibDem or the Greens haven't been able to make themselves heard for years now.

What we have instead is Farage, UKIP, Cummings and co who are filling the gaps and settling down whilst we are still looking somewhere else (eg what is happening with the Labour Party).
What we have is the extreme right settling down wo anyone noticing.
We already have had quite a lot of very racist/xenophobic comments during the campaign. No one has ever made any comment about how wrong it was. And this has been brewing for a few years TBH.

What we see today is what is happening in the US or in Austria. People are fed up with the 'normal' politicians (various reasons for that but no one really fully trust them anymore). So they are looking else where. They are looking towards charismatic people, people who are telling them what they want to hear. People who know how to play with the news and social media. People who truly believe in what they are saying (even if it's utter crap).

I would really much prefer the different parties to buckle down and sort themselves out, reinvent themselves, split up but FSG SAY something! Bring something to the debate and show some kind of leadership before the far Rigth takes over.

I just made myself turn it off, because I need to work instead of watching this car crash

Juncker - No notification, no negotiation. He's placed a ban on anyone discussing it with UK until the timer starts.

An interesting analogy that he used about the British cutting off the wings of the EU, but the EU is still flying. Says a lot about how he views it.

Juncker explaining that he is sad about the result. Made a point that he was not a grey, bureaucrat (little dig there) and was a human.

Understood that the British legal position is complicated, but they can not have indefinite uncertainty.

Said the British remain our friends.

Said he did not like the idea of talks and deals being done behind closed doors

Stressed there would be no negotiation here.

Said the EU need to continue the fight against red tape.

Yes seriously noble.

But my god, he does waffle about doesn't he? The first person was easy to listen to, followed a specific course, and finished up. Juncker is just meandering around, not really easy to listen to.

Also asked Farage why he was still there

Which I know is a bit petty and bitchy, but still, he has a point

quite impressive how he's switching from French to German, just like that

(ok ok I'm still watching)