After the dinner with Dave last night, Angela Merkel said
“We did not discuss the possibility that the UK will not invoke article 50, and I consider this an impossibility.”
If we do not invoke, this is a problem - we will have uncertainty for years and it will be a manifesto item for every party. Think about that. If we have years of crap with no investment and an inability to widen our trade elsewhere, whilst France and German strip us of our business assets, our country will be a mess.
If we never invoke Article 50, all the (substantial) concessions we have negotiated over 40 years will still stand.
We couldn't legally be forced to join the Euro, unless we leave and then decide to rejoin.
Your understanding of how the EU works is very poor.
Meanwhile, whilst we are effectively suspended from the EU, we can have all the tariff free trade we like, but we have to respect the movement of free people at the same time. Politically this is an issue that isn't going away now people believe this is being addressed. (even if this addressing is to say, errr actually we can't do it)
We will not have any influence in a lot of the decisions made in the EU. We simply won't be invited to meetings. We have to accept what's on the table which will not necessarily be favourable to us. (See French Referendum and the Lisbon Treaty). If we decide to veto, this is not a good thing and I think there is room to argue, that this would trigger our exit at this point.
Article 7 theoretically starts to be an option for the EU. We are obstructing the democratic workings of the EU whilst not trying to further the intent of the democratic nature of the referendum.
In essence, the only way we can just 'not activation a50' is to belt up and join in with Europe wholeheartedly and without objection. Which just ain't happening....
All the while we still have an underlying problem here: if we do stay we always have this shadow hanging over us, where we distrust and dislike the EU and this is a view held by a lot of people. When is the next referendum to leave? Or the next GE.
If it is felt that the EU is to blame for our economic woes, then sentiment to leave with grow not diminish. Rejoining the EU will not be viewed as a way to 'save us' they will be viewed as our 'masters' which is exactly what the Leave campaign fed into.
Essentially, we have proven that as a nation we do not have a shared vision and heart for cooperative politics over and over again - and that's what it boils down to. We have never had a heart for Europe. Our minds are too separatist and inward looking to past glories that really never were, because of the way history has been taught to us in a rather arrogant manner, feeling superior rather than viewing our neighbours as equal partners. The referendum was a rejection of globalisation and a triumph of isolationism.
Unlike Greece. For all that they have been through and all that they have been shafted, they have looked to Europe with favour and with enough respect to view not only being part of the EU as a good thing, but followed that up with going for the Euro. It does show a completely different underlying set of beliefs, whether or not they still exist or not. It shows the mentality is different and perhaps can be changed.
Ours can't until we have learnt that the world is a big place and we are just a small part of that.
De Gaul blocked our entry into the EU, because he said we would be a pain in the arse in it. We have been difficult at every single turn and have been hostile to it. Now we show we do not believe in the shared ideals once again.
Europe don't want to give up on us I'm sure. The truth is, that we didn't give up on them. We just never believed wholeheartedly in the first place.
The reality is, that even there is a significant number of people who do believe in the EU, its not enough. Until our politics and media are not dominated by polarised opinions on Europe, all we are is a disruptive and difficult force that obstructs and risks its future.
We will get time before we hit the button, simply because of the belief in democracy and frankly they can see we are not in a state to be able to do that.
The Conservatives are now quietly trying to close the doors on all our escape routes on this - remember history belongs to the victors (as does the media in this particular case as many of you are noticing). The reason is, they fear UKIP if they don't. No early GE. No second referendum.
The opposition to that needed to come swifter and stronger challenging the legitimacy and clear mandate of the percentages. It never did. If we want to talk about Farage and what would have happened if Remain had won. That challenge would have happened and it would have happened clearly and immediately and strongly. We have had no leadership on that, because we don't actually any opposition at the moment. Indeed Corbyn immediately said, 'that's it'. Which is part of the reason the rest of the labour MPs are up in arms about it, and felt that his heart was never for Remaining in the first place.
So that particular horse has bolted.
All this drawing of red lines about immigration are particularly unhelpful. Especially when we are likely to have an increase in emigration over the next few years... And that's what I worry about now. There is no solution and no compromise with the EU to be made here and no one is facing up to that. This is what we need though.
What options are we left with, and what hope do we have left? Honestly? Not a great deal at all.
I do think the French Election thing is a big deal as to how we eventually are treated and how favourably. But that's totally out of our control.
As are most other options here.
In fact I think that our future is now best summed as the wheel of fortune gameshow, where the only thing we can do is decide which moment to press the button whilst the wheel of fortune turns and hope for the best that we get the jackpot rather than no money at all.
Sorry to be all doom and gloom but I think that's where we are now.