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Brexit

to think the Remainers aren't going to take this lying down and we won't leave

659 replies

SybilEngineer · 24/06/2016 10:02

A million plus more people voted leave than remain but still over 16 million voted in. And many of the people this will affect - the under 18s - didn't get a say.

The majority of our elected representatives want us to remain as does our capital city.

The EU wants us to remain and once the leaders have stopped throwing their toys around they will realise they need to reform the EU and make changes that will keep UK and all the other eurosceptic people in.

Today has been a body blow for us remainers but, we're shot of Cameron, so we can re-group and start the fight to remain in the EU but with changes that much of Europe wants.

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missmoon · 05/07/2016 12:18

"The lie about the rebate was clearly debunked during the campaign"

The 350m figure is the gross amount, but what we actually send is a lower amount since it excludes the rebate (248m a week). So the amount we would hypothetically have to spend on other stuff if we leave the EU (and the single market) would be at most 248m a week. Then there is all the funding that the EU spends on the poorest regions (e.g., Cornwall and Northern Ireland), farmers, university grants etc., and assuming we want to honour at least some of those obligations post-Brexit, the actual amount to spend on the NHS is a lot lower than the 350m quoted.

What am I missing? Please explain.

Roonerspism · 05/07/2016 12:22

shove I work in a related field and so didn't doubt the so called experts' views. However, I've been around long enough to know that there was a lot of shrieking and shouting about it, making me think the real story wouldn't be so bad.

However, what amazed me, as I went to bed despondently on the night of the EU Ref thinking we would Remain, was just how many people chose to ignore those Experts. I was amazed, frankly.

And from the various discussions since, it seems that the reasons for this are because "experts" are no longer believed in the same way. They miss things, they get it wrong, they disagree with each other.

So in a subconscious way, I think all those non-experts just decided they no longer gave a fuck about these people who rammed their views down their throats as they had got it wrong so often before.

And what I see now is the experts salvaging their position. So they are still trying to over-egg the issue.

I'm not saying there isn't huge uncertainty ahead and I think we will be in a difficult position for a few years (and the reason I voted Leave is for the long term). But the reporting by the BBC, the Financial Times and indeed the words used by Carney are protectionist.

This is pissing me off as they are trying to salvage their previous position.

catkind · 05/07/2016 12:58

Both campaigns used misleading figures. I don't think people believed in the literal truth of the numbers quoted although they could see the thinking behind them. We are all used to marketing and advertising so we use our common sense when we vote.

I think you are over-estimating the cynicism of the population there. Marketing and advertising WORK. Big headline figures work in marketing. Why do you think they plastered that 350m figure on the bus? Marketers aren't idiots either, they have lots of experience of this stuff and they wouldn't do it if they didn't think it would have an effect.

shovetheholly · 05/07/2016 13:04

Rooner - I wish I had your confidence that things will be OK. (I really mean that). Sadly, I don't think that will be the case. I do think life will be worse for the vast majority of people in this country over the next 20 years because of this vote. I also think the deal to access the EEA will be significantly worse than many Leavers believe. However, hearing Carney trying desperately to prevent a credit crunch and buying my holiday currency today - and getting a horrendous exchange rate- has not really improved my sense of gloom for the future. The pound has fallen through the floor against even the Euro. And it's not even begun yet! We haven't even left. Only time will tell which of us is right, though! Maybe we should check back in 5 years!!

I think what is happening with expertise is weirder than you suggest - basically, ideology is now running the ship, and empirical evidence is very much shoved to one side. Even where empirical data is under consideration, there is a lack of nuance in the way that it is handled (as you say, people being unable to understand the complexities of 'expertise' or the degrees of uncertainty in the evidence), exacerbated by a media that really doesn't contain journalists bright and skilled enough to do a half decent job, even if those in charged allowed that to happen.

It's not just a question of the screwed over working classes blaming immigrants for economic problems that are a consequence of very deliberate policy, but of a middle class that actually is far less intelligent than it thinks it is, and far less able to deal with complexity, or to interrogate basic assumptions, e.g. 'capitalism is good'. That is all compounded by a political culture, where people seem to think it is acceptable to strip out all the nuance from arguments just because there is an election on, which amounts to a kind of dishonesty. I think a lot of the arguments from Remainers have been almost as ridiculously one-sided as those of Leavers in terms of presenting a white-washed picture of the EU. Simply bludgeoning people with images of a blue and yellow flag, rather than listening to and engaging with their concerns, is unlikely to be effective - particularly where there is a (justified) perception amongst that group that they are neglected, ill-used and unheard.

Roonerspism · 05/07/2016 23:37

holly I like your analysis.

Strangely, I feel the working class is as able to consider the fundamentals behind the EU as the middle class. I have heard a lot of crap on both sides from people who ought to know better. I will try to link to a great article doing the rounds.

I am optimistic, which is why I voted Leave! I was very despondent we were stuck with the EU. I know that won't make you feel any better but all the Leave voters I know are very well informed and sensible and just happened to weigh things up differently.

shovetheholly · 06/07/2016 08:05

I feel like both sides are equally unable! Grin (I'm definitely not an optimist).

I'd like to see a return to economic analysis of inequality. We need to broaden the political debate to include perspectives critical of capitalism and the status quo, and to funnel money towards those communities most in need of help. A huge issue is the fact that the media is occupied by a London twitterati set who are massively over-privileged and have no clue about the lifestyles of the majority. I'm sick of reading articles about the working class by people who had a selective education followed by Oxbridge.

Some things that are annoying me at the moment:

  • the equation of 'Leave' votes with the right. (This is convenient for the Parliamentary Labour Party, but it's massively simplistic). Yes, some of those voting Leave are right wing, but the issue doesn't run along the lines of party politics, and the only people who could possibly think it does are political journos who are overly invested in the Westminster personality bubble, and massively clueless about the way politics actually works in the rest of the country. A lot of protectionist Leave rhetoric is quite lose to old-fashioned trade union discourse which protected one select group of workers against outsiders.
  • The assumption that the working class is one homogeneous mass. Actually, local geographies were clearly massively influential in the vote. Belfast is a striking example
  • The ignorance of a middle class who, by and large, had a good credit crunch about the impact of rising austerity and inequality on lower middle and working class communities is every bit as annoying as the way that those communities themselves blame immigrants for problems of policy. (There isn't enough housing, there aren't enough school places, the NHS is creaking because of absolutely deliberate government policy, not migrants. We can find bloody millions whenever it's a question of war, but not to educate our kids apparently. The middle classes do some gentle hand-wringing but don't really give a shit about this because they can just pay to bail on the public system and go private).
  • The rise of abhorrent racism, but also the rise of people jumping on that racism as an excuse to air what is effectively just another kind of discrimination - class prejudice (use of the word 'chavs'). The intersectionality of the situation is complex and ugly, and we need to look it in the face, and not hide behind easy and slightly self-congratulatory statements about racism, which is an enormous, hideous, structural problem that is embedded in power and institutions, not just a matter of a few obnoxious wankers sounding off.
  • The correlation between level of education and Remain voting is hugely striking. Instead of doing all kinds of shit 'civic' initiatives and 'community engagement' days, universities should be confronting their role in perpetuating inequality by starting the modern equivalent of Mechanics' Institutes, offering free education in the heart of impoverished communities, with the potential to continue this at degree level. These initiatives need to be geared towards strong, practical knowledge that gives a way out of poverty, not sodding Indian belly dancing and cookery classes.
tiggytape · 06/07/2016 08:15

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Peregrina · 06/07/2016 13:18

Britain was already in the Common Market in 1975. Harold Wilson's referendum asked the question:
Do you think the United Kingdom should stay in the European Community (the Common Market).

tiggytape · 06/07/2016 13:27

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