What do you THINK the final result will be on Thursday? (As opposed to what you want to happen)

[LikeDylanInTheMovies]

I'm going Remain - 54% Leave 46% .

I wish I could say 'remain' as many on here are saying, but I have this horrible feeling that Leave will narrowly win.

I know the latest general swing has been towards Remain, but I think this latest guff about Cameron being warned ages ago that he couldn't make his immigration target will have an impact.

And I just think Outers are more likely to turn out.

My only hope/pet theory/fantasy is that, in the event of a Leave vote, Cameron, who will have to resign anyway, will decide that he has nothing to lose and overturn the result; leave the mess for Boris et al to sort out and go into the sunset.

I suspect Remain will probably win in the end

The swing the last few days has to be balanced against the large number of predominantly Leave votes who have already sent in postal ballots.

I think it's impossible for the government to ignore the result (I know legally they can, but politically it would be very tricky).

MrsB, I did say it was a fantasy...

PS do we actually know that those who have already sent in postal ballots are predominantly Leave? Or will they be counted along with the rest after Thursday?

Remain but only by a couple of %

Sapphire: those demographic groups which polls show are more likely to be Leavers are also much more likely to have postal votes (ie older people).

I have friends who are volunteering for the campaign who have all said when thy contact postal voters they have overwhelmingly said they have already voted, and voted for leave. This could be counterbalanced by a high turnout of young voters, but who knows?

This could be counterbalanced by a high turnout of young voters, but who knows?

The thing is they are the demographic who are least like to vote.

So basically who knows?

I've had a really horrible feeling I can't shake off that LEAVE will win.

I really really really hope I'm wrong. (I usually am when it comes to predicting election results)

Thanks, MrsB. Purely anecdotally, I know a postal voter who is not older and has voted Remain, and another one who probably IS counted as older (about 60) and was also vehemently Remain. Some crumbs of hope...

The other problem with the postal vote is that most ballots were filled at the height of the "Leave" surge, which now appears to have subsided somewhat.

Good point, Chalalala. Should I dare to have some hope?

Saphhire, I actually meant it as a negative thing for Remain - there's a risk the postal vote will lean even more towards Leave than one could expect!

But yes, the flip side is that Remain now appears to have gained a bit of ground back.

It's certainly nowhere near comfortable enough for my taste...

Me and Dp are both Remain (postal votes) but in a largely Leave area. I can't call it to be honest, I'm sad to say that I'm not sure I trust the powers that be whichever way it goes.

I think we will remain. I think the undecideds will vote to remain when it comes to the crunch because anyone who has not yet made a decision probably doesn't feel strongly enough about it to rock the boat.

Don't worry....David Beckham is leaving one of his many homes, taking the kids out of private school and being chauffeur driven to the poll station to vote Remain.....

Chalala, oh. I thought you meant that most of the postal voters who were going to vote Leave have already done so and that there are mainly Remainers left...

sorry Sapphire

The thing is they are the demographic who are least like to vote.

Is it too hopeful to think that young people might find a referendum more appealing than an election and will feel more inclined to vote?

Is it too hopeful to think that young people might find a referendum more appealing than an election and will feel more inclined to vote?

Maybe but my DH and many friends work in a field with people of that age.

Very enthusiastic about the GE. Not about this. To them it has been two sides just shouting at each other and no better informed so won't vote.

This has also been one of the big criticisms of the Labour In campaign. It hasn't been teaching out to younger voters.

I have old (40s) schoolmates across Europe (Benelux international school) who are as excited about the outcome as we are.

Of the Germans and French, they want us to stay but are afraid we will leave and they'll be left with the economic burden.

Of the smaller norther countries, they are hoping very much that this will spark referenda in their own countries as they are almost all pro-leaving.

We could end up shafting ourselves by remaining; if NL, BE and the Scandis go, we will be propping up god knows who for a very very long time.

Well in that regard, I agree with them, the whole thing has been a farce of the highest order.

Here is what is happening but it is being deliberately withheld from us :(

"Der Welt is quite clear that the European Parliament is indeed about to approve an EU army and override national vetoes:"
"The European People’s Party has just discussed ambitious plans to reactivate the EU at a meeting in Nice. This begins with binding majority decisions against the veto of individual countries – and continues with Europe’s own army and national border protection."
heatst.com/uk/senior-french-economists-german-paper-back-brexit-full-text/
The EPP (just to get this into proportion)has been the largest party in the European Parliament since 1999 and in the European Council since 2002. It is also by far the largest party in the current European Commission. The President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission are both from the EPP. Many of the Founding fathers of the European Union were also from parties that later formed the EPP. Outside the EU the party also controls a majority in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe.

I am making a killing on eBay selling tinfoil hats though.

War is not a joke.