What do you THINK the final result will be on Thursday? (As opposed to what you want to happen)

[LikeDylanInTheMovies]

I'm going Remain - 54% Leave 46% .

[timetobackout]

Absolutely wishful thinking to think the Eu will ever depart from its federalist
Goal, indeed the structural problems of the Euro can only be solved by further fiscal integration.
As Cecilia Maelstrom the trade commissioner in charge of the Ttip deal
said
'I do not take my mandate from the European people' when challenged a.bout the widespread opposition to the deal.

[parmalilac]

Chalalala - I can't see why, in the event of a Remain win, the EU would change anything. If they had been at all bothered by the thought of Brexit then why didn't they offer more to Cameron? They will care even less if the (however slight) majority vote to stay in.

[RedToothBrush]

Leave by a whisker, I hope. What really worries me if Remain win (even if by the narrowest of margins), is that this whole thing may be the catalyst for other countries to have their own referendum. How tragic would that be if France or other western EU countries left, and we'd be stuck there with the remainder of the member states who would then despise us for wanting to leave, albeit as we massively subsidise them.

Honestly France was to go, I think we would also have another referendum in those circumstances. Plus we would not be in a position of being the one 'to blame' which psychologically and economically makes a massive difference. Smaller countries like The Netherlands are looking to the UK for a lead though, and I think are unlikely to follow in our footsteps and hold their own referendum if we Remain.

[MrsBlackthorn]

More reasons to Remain. The thought of going through another referendum here fills me with despair; please can we never do this again?

[BoulevardOfBrokenSleep]

MrsBlackthorn

And of course, if we vote Leave, there might be a general election this year too

[Chalalala]

timetobackout and parmalilac, you're both writing as if "the EU" was a monolithic bloc with its own independent will, but that's not how it works. It's made up of 28 independent nations, each with their own views of what the EU should be and their own domestic politics to worry about.

this is all absolute speculation, granted. But I've been reading things about the Franco-German discussions going on right now, about the internal debates in Brussels. The mood has changed, there's agreement that something needs to be done about growing euroscepticism in Europe (Britain is not the end all be all here, although it's the clearest symptom yet). There's also disagreement about the potential solutions, but the options seem a lot more open now than they did a year ago. I don't pretend to know, it's just my general sense.

[EnthusiasmDisturbed]

Why would there be a general election if we leave ?

[flippinada]

I completely understand where you're coming from MrsBlackthorn

I'm in Scotland and found the referendum a profoundly unpleasant experience but that has nothing on this one.

[flippinada]

Please, once this is over can we have an end to referenda and elections? I know that's a vain hope by the way, I'm just bloody sick of them.

[flippinada]

I don't mean forever, obviously - just a couple of years would be nice!

[BoulevardOfBrokenSleep]

God knows I don't want a GE, but apparently Cameron would/may resign if Leave win. And there would be the weird situation where the British public have ordered MPs to take an action that 2/3 of them disagree with, so general speculation on how we move forward from there.

Come to think of it, the law changed to fixed-term parliaments in 2010 didn't it, so the PM can't just go "ELECTION! SURPRISE!" like before. Assume there is still some mechanism of triggering one though (CBA to google)

[DeccaMitfordsEntryVisa]

I honestly don't know.

I will vote to remain, and a lot of my friends say they will vote remain - but we've seen all this before, haven't we?!

I wouldn't be surprised either way, TBH

[EnthusiasmDisturbed]

If DC resigns wouldn't it just be a leadership contest or could he hand it to GO as we know that's their plan like Tony Blair and Gordon Brown

[TheDowagerCuntess]

I'm not in the UK and so am watching the whole thing unfold from afar, with commentary from all sorts of observers - much of it very detached, as there is no vested interest.

As a reasonably objective observer, it is clear that the average educated voter wishes to remain.

Every single UK-based person on my news feed who is expressing an opinion wishes to remain. A fair few are not expressing an opinion (though in many cases, that's because they don't use FB at an outlet for that sort of thing, anyway).

I still think it will be an, albeit close, vote to remain.

[RedToothBrush]

Boulevard, a vote of no confidence in the government is now required to trigger an early election. This is a vote by the whole house of commons.

If Cameron resigns that's no problem. There will just be an internal Tory election for the next leader.

If he doesn't then he will face a Tory revolt. They have already threatened to trigger a vote of no confidence. They need 50 back benchers to write a letter to the 1922 committee leader (the head of the tory back bench MPs) to do this. Rumour has it, he already has enough of these letters dated 24th June to do this REGARDLESS OF WHO WINS - if it is a narrow remain win - over Cameron's leadership during the referendum.

We could well end up with a General Election before Christmas if Cameron is stubborn in this event.

I think this threat is real and serious.

Sorry, flippinada!

Happy Days

[OrangesandLemonsNow]

If DC resigns wouldn't it just be a leadership contest

Yes.

It wouldn't be a GE.

[flippinada]

Well it was wishful thinking Red !

Mind you, I'd rather have referenda to infinity than GO as PM.

[EnthusiasmDisturbed]

Thank you Oranges

How depressing George Osbourne as PM

[RedToothBrush]

If there is a leadership contest after a Remain vote, it won't be Boris as PM. Nor will it be Gove. But equally I think the Brexit Budget will have lost Gideon support from within too and he'll be tarred with the same brush as Cameron.

My money would go on a dark horse. Theresa May has positioned herself nicely between the warring Tory camps despite supporting Remain.

[Chalalala]

+1 for Theresa May as next Tory leader

She's been quietly Remain while having some strong credentials on immigration. Most importantly she hasn't angered anyone during the campaign. She could be a consensus/compromise candidate.

This is my forecast by the way, not my preference.

[MrsBlackthorn]

It could be a GE, particularly if an emergency budget is needed. Labour have already said they wouldn't support a budget with more austerity. But if the markets are going haywire and Sterling falls, that will be necessary (although the detail of it is very much tbc - Osborne's emergency budget last week is just guesswork or speculation).

A government failing to get their own budget passed ordinarily forces a vote of no confidence.

So a GE is quite likely, but by no means certain, in the event of a Leave vote. This concerns me in the current volatile political climate. We may well find an emboldened UKIP taking large parts of the Labour vote. Probably not that many seats, but might be enough to hold the balance in a coalition, or to take enough votes to let the Tories grab otherwise safe Labour seats. There are few circumstances in which this wouldn't return a right-wing government, but we are living in strange political times.

[Chalalala]

(I don't have a preference for the next Tory leader, just various shades of distaste :-)

[RedToothBrush]

This is my forecast by the way, not my preference.

Likewise. If I had a preference, it would be someone not in the cabinet at present at all.

Get rid of the lot of them after this farce.

[RedToothBrush]

I disagree with you there MrsBlackthorne. Gideon's power play on the Brexit Budget is just that. A play. Plus he wouldn't survive a reshuffle if Cameron goes. Which he will do if its a Leave vote.

That budget would NEVER happen. Its brinkmanship and game play.

[MrsBlackthorn]

I specifically didn't say that budget - but that a budget would be needed quickly to quell a highly volatile economy. Whoever is in charge will not have the option of doing nothing.