What do you THINK the final result will be on Thursday? (As opposed to what you want to happen)

[LikeDylanInTheMovies]

I'm going Remain - 54% Leave 46% .

[ThroughThickAndThin01]

I personally think a referendum should be acted on if a certain percentage gets the vote. Say 55%. A good majority. Is that the wrong way to think about it? I wouldn't like a 50.5/49.5 split. Would it be too costly to hold another shortly after

[MrsBlackthorn]

I'm a committed Remainer, but the grey vote is much more in favour of Leave, and they vote in the greatest numbers - we just don't hear as much from them on social media. The Mumsnet vote is comparatively small.

I'm quite surprised by the number of people I hear who say "I'll vote leave but I don't think it's going to happen", like it's a protest vote. If they vote leave, it will happen!

[CoolforKittyCats]

I'm quite surprised by the number of people I hear who say "I'll vote leave but I don't think it's going to happen", like it's a protest vote. If they vote leave, it will happen!

I think people are saying they are voting leave but remain will win because usually in GE it is the status quo that wins which is why parties in opposition tend to historically work harder to win. It isn't because they don't want leave to win.

[MrsBlackthorn]

I think it's at least in part because people are used to their vote not really making a difference; I vote one way in a seat that is solidly the other way. I turn out every time, but it makes absolutely no difference to the result. The same is true for most people in the UK, who either vote for an opposition party or are stacking up votes in a safe seat - a very small number of votes and seats actually make a difference.

This time it actually does make a difference - every vote does.

Nonetheless this referendum does have a strong current of conspiracy theorism - huge numbers of Leave voters are convinced there is a conspiracy to rig the result. www.politics.co.uk/news/2016/06/21/half-of-leave-voters-believe-eu-referendum-will-be-rigged

[Jelliedeels]

Through - I think anyone with half a brain realise there is a recession coming.

I also do not see how if the vote goes to the leave, how the government cannot act on it.

[ShelaghTurner]

Remain will win. Anyone (like me) who's undecided or easily swayable (new word?) will probably chicken out and vote remain because they will panic and go for the devil they think they know.

[Chalalala]

was everyone really convinced Labour would win in the last GE?

I was always under the impression that the Tories had the edge and Labour faced an uphill battle. And I mostly read the Guardian!!!

Anyway, here's my boring prediction: Remain 53, Leave 47.

If Leave wins, the immediate aftermath is going to be pretty bad because the markets aren't expecting it, really. There'd be an instant drastic correction.

[MrsBlackthorn]

That's my worry, too, Chalalala. Markets have calmed and priced it back out. If it goes the other way Soros is going to be on the money (probably literally).

[Helmetbymidnight]

Thickandthin, I won't tell you the gazillions of things I've failed to predict.

It is going to be fascinating to see the voting patterns.

I feel social media posts don't tell us an awful lot- they are a select group of especially time-rich 30-50 somethings who, as pp said, don't represent the vast number of voters - especially the over 60s...

I feel 'contentment' with status quo is a factor. Content with your place in the system versus discontent. But discontents might, just might, be more likely to mobilise on Thursday.

[Littlemisslovesspiders]

I agree with pp that voting numbers could have a big impact.

Younger demographic more likely to vote remain but less likely to vote.

Older demographic more like to vote leave and more likely to vote.

This in a way is why there has been the big push to get younger voters engaged both in GE and now.

[RedToothBrush]

I think there is not a 'silent leave' effect.
That's too simple.

I think it depends on where you are.
The majority of places are either strongly Remain or Leave. As are circles of friends.

If you happen to be a fish out of water then you stay quiet.
So there are 'quiet remainers' as well out there.

What do I think the result of Thursday will be?
I agree with ThroughThickAndThin01 about a recession actually. I think there is one on the horizon.
I also think that we are in for some social unrest and the next couple of years are going to be rocky.
I also think that the conservative party fall out is not going to be pretty. I wouldn't be surprised about a no confidence vote. I think an outsider to the leadership race could be a surprise on the cards.
I think there will be moves to make changes to the EU that surprise everyone - by that I mean changes that are inline with British feeling. This will happen regardless of whether we stay or go.
I think we have a lot of sole searching for who we are as a country to do, regardless of the outcome.

As for the result. I really don't know.
It depends on turnout in no small measure.

Remain is more apathetic on the whole. Its down to whether they get up off their arses and vote for something they are luke warm on. The weather forecast is ok. Good weather favours high turnout. But there are heavy showers and thunderstorms predicted for the SE which might be bad news for Remain as it has a lot of support in London.

The bookies, currently still have Remain as favourite, with 50 - 55% where the money is (with 55 - 60% second favourite). They are expecting turnout around 68 - 70%. I have been following closely and its curious. Considerably more money has been put on Remain - but in part this is because you need to put more on to win anything at all. However far more bets have been put on Leave (double the number). If you think about all this in terms of who is betting, then I'm not so sure it adds up to a clear Remain lead.

The odds on Leave shortened and Remain lengthened until last Tuesday. There was barely anything in it at one point. Then they stabilised. Then the odds on Remain started to shorten slightly on Wednesday. This is different to what the polls were showing. It was stable over the weekend, but money has started to go back on Remain in the last 24hours.

The thing is I actually think turnout will be slightly lower than the bookies think. So I don't think I can call it.

Its all down to getting people out to vote. That's what's going to decide it. I think it unlikely that we will see a landslide for Remain though. There are too many people who have placed bets on leave for that to happen.

I worry about just how close it is going to be.

Even if Remain win, I fear there will be close enough for those saying 'take your own pen' to don tin foil hats. I would definitely not rule out legal challenges, and the result being held in some sort of doubt and legal limbo. I don't know that the voter registration deadline debacle has run its full course yet.

If this happens. We are in trouble. The uncertainty of that will be damaging. Uncertainty, is bad for the economy. Unfortunately, I actually am starting to think this is possibly the most likely scenario, especially given Mr Farage's track record of being 'graceful' in defeat.

I really hope I'm wrong.

Plus its Boris v Khan tonight. I think that could also change a lot of opinions. Its definitely not a done deal yet.

[shinytorch2]

Mrs B - I don't think Cameron and Osborne know what's hit them! I think they thought this referendum would be a quick few weeks campaigning and then a decisive victory for remain and then Cam could move on, write his memoirs, get on the after dinner circuit, maybe become EU Commissioner, having purged the Tory party of their eurosceptics.

Watching Andrew Neil interviewing Gideon is one of the highlights for me - someone at last nailed that arrogant man!

Given the Government stance on this I think yes, many people feel the result will be rigged, after all, the BBC is not exactly covering itself in glory with balanced coverage. Look on MN - how many posts and webchats with remainers vs leavers. I heard Gideon on the radio yesterday saying there had been no discussions about plans for Friday if Leave were to win - no contingency planning in Government, no special team set up for that "just in case" scenario. All businesses, including yours, have a plan B, just in case.

To answer the OP - I think Remain 54% will win, and then UKIP will gain massive support and we will have a hung parliament in 2020, with UKIP as part of Government.

[Notbigandnotclever]

I think it will be likely within a couple of % the same result as the scotland vote in terms of closeness. I predict around 55% to remain.

[flippinada]

I don't think everyone was convinced that Labour would win the last election either.

One of the problems with social media is that it becomes like an echo chamber with people reinforcing their own views. You can see it on the EU threads here which are dominated by the same posters saying the same thing to each other over and over again.

I think it's too close to call but if pushed, I reckon it will be a similar result to the Scottish Referendum.

[EnthusiasmDisturbed]

I agree I think they thought it would be a walk in the park a few pesky UKIP voters to deal with and those who vote labour, snp, libdem, green and conservative would all join together

I know voters from all sides who are voting remain and leave. Mostly leave as they are staunch labour voters though I would question labours position (especially after watching JC last night). People view it very differently depending on their own personal experiences

[Helmetbymidnight]

Mm, we could well see referendums across Europe and see the eu implode that way.

The 'shy leave' supporter? I think she exists but will she actually vote?

[EnthusiasmDisturbed]

Sorry mostly stay not leave .....

[CoolforKittyCats]

The 'shy leave' supporter? I think she exists but will she actually vote?

Yes because apparently you tend to be more motivated to vote for change than you do the same.

[Chalalala]

I think there will be moves to make changes to the EU that surprise everyone - by that I mean changes that are inline with British feeling. This will happen regardless of whether we stay or go.

I agree this is looking increasingly likely. EU leaders (including national politicians) are now taking the dissatisfaction behind Brexit very, very seriously, because they don't want it to spread. I've seen several say that the last thing the EU needs right now is to further antagonise eurosceptics by accelerating integration, and that whether the result is Leave or Remain the EU needs to reassess its priorities and win back the support of the population.

[flippinada]

I'm sure they (they being the dynamic duo of Osborne and Cameron) did think it would be a walk in the park, they are arrogant enough.

[BoulevardOfBrokenSleep]

The final result will depend on whether or not it rains on Thursday.

This is utterly ridiculous, but somehow very British.

[parmalilac]

Leave by a whisker, I hope. What really worries me if Remain win (even if by the narrowest of margins), is that this whole thing may be the catalyst for other countries to have their own referendum. How tragic would that be if France or other western EU countries left, and we'd be stuck there with the remainder of the member states who would then despise us for wanting to leave, albeit as we massively subsidise them.

[fanjoforthemammaries7850]

i think it will be Remain

[Pissant]

Remain.

Which is what I will be voting for.

[CaptainBrickbeard]

I was convinced Leave would win but I think this week has seen a noticeable shift to Remain. I think as the prospect of Leave became more convincing, that has galvanised some of the undecided to Remain.

However, the support of the Sun for Leave does make me wonder. I support Remain and so do my friends and family so I guess I am not seeing the extent of the Leave support. Farage's poster seemed an almighty and offensive mistake that I'm sure will have revolted a lot of people who don't want to be lumped in with the racists. The tragic murder of Jo Cox may have had an effect as well, I think it's impossible to really know.

It seems so hard to predict the outcome and to predict the consequences either way. But two weeks ago, I felt depressingly certain Leave would win and now I feel more confident that Remain will.

However, I thought Labour would win the election so I definitely don't have faith in my own predictions!