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Brexit

What do you THINK the final result will be on Thursday? (As opposed to what you want to happen)

505 replies

LikeDylanInTheMovies · 20/06/2016 23:47

I'm going Remain - 54% Leave 46% .

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RedToothBrush · 22/06/2016 11:56

There is an interesting article on the bookies today in the independent if the bookies vs pollsters interests you

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-bookies-have-always-made-a-remain-vote-favourite-and-the-odds-continue-to-shorten-a7093971.html

This bit is what I've noticed (and mentioned upthread) that bothers me:

While 75 per cent of the total money bet at William Hill had gone on Remain, he said: “In terms of the actual numbers of bets made it’s the other way round: 75 per cent of bets on Leave and 25 per cent on Remain.”

He admitted: “At the back of my mind, there is the possibility that the high percentage of individual bets on Leave could be an indicator that we got it wrong.

“And in the last general election, a lot of small staking punters [like those now betting on Leave] voted for an outright Tory majority when we were saying it wasn’t going to happen.”

squoosh · 22/06/2016 11:58

That bothers me too Red.

Eeeek.

RedToothBrush · 22/06/2016 12:04

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-map-poll-live-latest-brexit-remain-leave-a7093886.html

YouGov Leave map based on recent polling.

Unfortunately I can't find a version you can zoom in on or reference to it on their own (godawful) website

KondosSecretJunkRoom · 22/06/2016 12:04

But the odds make voting leave more interesting - who wants to place a tenner and get £12 back, that's very boring.

SapphireStrange · 22/06/2016 12:05

That's been my thinking too, Vista, especially the 'keep the status quo' point.

Red's post about William Hill is worrying though. But another way of looking at it might be that people are betting on how they THINK it will go, not on how they WANT it to go or are voting themselves.

squoosh · 22/06/2016 12:08

But I'd imagine that most people who bet on a particular outcome will also vote for that outcome. Especially for such an emotionally charged issue like this one.

Vistaverde · 22/06/2016 12:16

Squoosh Saphire You are right a worrying article and I hadn't realised there was a discrepancy between value of and number of bets.

RedToothBrush · 22/06/2016 12:24

Kondos that exactly why the betting still is favouring Remain, but clearly they have doubts themselves.

I do think its worth considering WHO is betting too. It is far more likely to men for example. Which doesn't reflect the whole picture. Those placing large bets are more likely to vote Remain and to be people who have can afford to loose.

Either way, the Bookies will be making sure they win regardless.

This is why I really don't feel able to call it at the moment.

There is nothing in it. I've been keeping a close track of the betting for a few weeks and best odds you'd have got recently would have been late Tuesday/early Weds. Most money went on Leave Monday / Tuesday which seems earlier than you'd expect from the polling / reporting.

The odds came in a lot on Monday (not over the weekend) have been more or less steady since yesterday with little movement today, which does sort of suggest that last night's debate hasn't really changed a lot of minds.

I think there will be shift tomorrow, probably around lunchtime as people start to get a feel for what's actually going on.

But as I said previously, no one know who is actually going to vote and who is just so pissed off with the whole affair.

SapphireStrange · 22/06/2016 12:26

I hadn't realised there was a discrepancy between value of and number of bets.

I knew that, but a) didn't realise it was such a discrepancy and b) just put it down to Remain betters being more affluent/more willing to spend.

I find the ' “At the back of my mind' comment the really worrying thing.

squoosh · 22/06/2016 12:26

The financial markets rallying gave me some cause for optimism too. I'd imagine they'd carried out some private polling?

SapphireStrange · 22/06/2016 12:29

Does anyone know how either betting or polling has changed since the Wembley shindig?

squoosh · 22/06/2016 12:33

It hasn't shifted at all.

squoosh · 22/06/2016 12:34

The bookies that is. No idea about the polls. For the polls I generally look to John Curtice and he's adamant things are closer than the bookies think.

flippinada · 22/06/2016 12:34

I don't think there's anything out yet. I'll be keeping an eye on what the UK thinks. Sorry can't do a link cos I'm on my phone.

flippinada · 22/06/2016 12:37

John Curtice is behind What UK thinks.

Currently there's a slight lead for remain (51/49). Too close to call.

RedToothBrush · 22/06/2016 12:41

The bookies has stayed almost the same since before Wembley. I took a note of all the odds on Oddschecker at 1pm & 9.30pm yesterday as well as today. No significant movement.

RedToothBrush · 22/06/2016 12:48

Here's another take on the bookies odds

blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/chance-vote-leave-reaches-highest-level-ever/

It shows a spike on Thursday (which you might expect) but I did see the odds start to change direction late Wed /early Thursday and made a note of it at the time.

It gives the percentage chances of remaining/leaving (Note the is a different thing than the percentage of shares in case the figures confuse you).

squoosh · 22/06/2016 12:50

And I keep clicking on this too

www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/live-betfair-exchange-euref-betting-odds-updated-247/

squoosh · 22/06/2016 12:51

Which is up from approx 69% on Saturday

SapphireStrange · 22/06/2016 12:52

Currently there's a slight lead for remain (51/49). Too close to call.

God. It's unbearable.

Chalalala · 22/06/2016 13:18

Looking for a silver lining, the close polls may be good for turnout? There used to be a worry that Remain voters wouldn't turn up because they were confident it was in the bag, well, not anymore...

ThereIsIron · 22/06/2016 13:39

Remain will win. If it doesn't we're in diffs ...

RedToothBrush · 22/06/2016 13:41

Chalalala, indeed. Very much indeed.

Unless they are just pissed off at everyone and abstain and stay at home.

squoosh · 22/06/2016 14:11

Mike Smithson who runs the Political Betting website has just been on World at One and said Remain will win 'by a small margin'.

Mistigri · 22/06/2016 14:14

chalalala intention to vote has risen sharply in the youngest group of voters, and these are overwhelmingly remainders. I think that there will be a high turnout, and that this is overall better for remain than for leave.

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