Firstly, I haven't read much in the media debate about the mechanics of a UK exit.
Pity. Google Article 50 - that explains the formal exit process.
It's all a bit 'we have to leave to protect our borders'.
Not the message I am hearing. It's about sovereignty, self-determination and democracy. Making your own laws to suit the needs of your country. When you lose that ability, as we have done, you cannot protect your borders.
Or 'we have to stay to protect the economy'.
The economy will be OK - Cameron said we would be OK outside the EU before he went full on Project terror. Democracy is far more valuable than half a percent off interest rates. Democracy is priceless .
What I hadn't realised until this morning is that if we vote to leave, the mechanics of withdrawal are horrendously complicated (unsurprisingly). The mechanism under which we'd exit (Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union) is 17 words long (one of the people who drafted it was on the panel of speakers and he admitted that the drafts-people never expected it to be invoked).
17 words long is great. The EU regulations on cabbages run to many thousands of words. Article 50 is simple and sets out clearly the timescales and the fact that neither party can penalise the other for leaving. Greenland has already successfully eft an EU predecessor organization and so has Algeria. It is quite possible.
Once we've sent our letter to Europe saying that we're off, we'd have two years to negotiate our withdrawal.
Actually, up to 2 years and longer if both sides agree. or we could take less time.
The problem (apart from the fact that two years is no time at all to unravel our participation in Europe), is that Article 50 is only an exit agreement. It doesn't make any provision AT ALL about how we then negotiate our new relationship with Europe from the outside.
You're seeing problems where none exist. Traders carry on trading. Laws carry on being made by our Government rather than by the EU. There is no magic to this. We carry on belonging to all those international organizations we have belonged to long before we joined the EU: NATO, UN. WTO, etc
In fact, legally, Europe CANNOT negotiate a new relationship with us until we're a third country ie the two years have passed.
Untrue. See above. We remain In the EU until we have completed our exit arrangements. That can take one day or up to 2 years - or longer f both sides agree.
So while we can have some informal, closed-door conversations during that two-year period, we can't begin to put anything formal in place until we're out on our own.
It's not a 2 year period. We can be developing trade deals with other trading partners - something the EU prevents us from doing, and trading freely during that time.
When we've finally managed to negotiate our new deal with Europe after those 2 years, a lot of the terms of that deal will have to be ratified by all of the remaining 27 Member States.
Again - not 2 years. If 27 members states won't ratify then we exit without their agreement. Tell me exactly what you think they're agreeing to? They are deciding whether it's in their interests to continue trading with the UK - the worlds's 5th largest economy that employs many of their own citizens and who's wages to these people props up their own economies. It won;t take long for them to realise that we have clout and are prepared to use it.
And experience tells us that ratification could take 7-8 years.
No it doesn't. Experience tells you that the EU takes a very long time to make any deals when t is trying to make a one-size-fits-all trade deal and has to consult all 28 member countries all with their own vested interests. One to one deals are much quicker to make. The EU has failed to make a trade deal with China at all - yet little Iceland has managed it. We would manage it easily too
So it struck me that we might be in a weird sort of limbo for a whole decade, which doesn't sound too good.
Wrong (see above).
Secondly, if we do end up having to negotiate a new relationship with Europe from the outside, we will obviously be pushing for it to include all the things we want - access to the single market, free trade etc (all that 'good stuff').
No. We have the right to trade freely via our seat on the World Trade Council and will reoccupy it as soon as we Brexit. We don't need a new relationship with 'Europe' (you actually mean the EU) to achieve that. We can trade feely with the other 168 non-EU countries too, which we are currently prohibited from doing by the EU.
But we're not going to get that for free. We'll have to make concessions.
That is the essence of 'trade'. But when we have left the EU we can make mutually beneficial deals with countries that want to sell us things and which we ant to buy and vice versa, without having to pay the EU for the privilege of doing so - something that is frankly ridiculous.
And the things which we're most likely to have to concede on are going to be the things which seem to be driving the Leave campaign (primarily, 'close the borders').
Nope. We trade with many countries in the world that are not in the EU, Us, Japan, China, Australia but their citizens don't have an absolute right o come and live in the Uk and we don't have an absolute right to live in their countries either. It's only the EU /EEA that insists on that bizarre situation.
There's a strong chance we'll have to concede on free movement of people.
No. Wrong. Show me the Japanese who are claiming the right to live here because we buy their electronic goods. It doesn't happen.
So we'd be in the same position we're in at the moment except that we'd be on the outside looking in, instead of having a seat at the table with the decision-makers. "
Now you really are kidding yourself. we are not 'decision-makers' in the EU. We are not even bit players as we have to ask the EU nicely if we can remove the VAT on Tampax. Countries with clout do not need to ask for basics like that. we have 17% of influence in Council of Ministers and that will decline as new countries join and we have to reduce our number of MEPS to allow them to have some.
This kind of highlights how I feel - there isn't enough information about how we would proceed if we leave, I realise that it's a completely situation and we don't actually know what would happen but I feel that the leave gang are focussed on issues such as immigration but haven't offered (as far as I am aware) suggestions on how to move forward IF we leave the EU. I'm leaning towards remain because the thought of another recession and the insecurity of what would happen does worry me.
There is plenty of information.
That Facebok thing was ewritten by someone who is determined to keep as many people in the EU as they can by playing up fears and promoting incorrect information. If the EU really had a compelling raeson to amke you want to stay it would not have to scare the population into doing so -we would all naturally recognose the ebenfors of being in - but there are none.
If you Remain in the EU you are surrendering your sovereignty and right to make your own laws and the rights of your children to live in a country where they can elect a Parliament to make their laws and can dismiss that perliment and replace it when they want to. That's democracy.
The EU is an undemocratic bureiacracy and signing away your rights is like handing it a big stick to brat you with. Why would anyone want to do that? For what? I find it quite shocking that people treat their democarcy in such a cavaleer manner - people died to gain that for you (althogh that seems to be a very unfashionale fact to bring up).
Iceland withdrew it's EU membership recently. Tiny Iceland that has negotiated a trade deal with China - something the E has failed to do.
Yesterday Switzerland officially withdrew its EU membership.
Listen to these countries. They are moving away from the EU not remaining in the sinking ship.
If you want to stay in because you think the EU is pink and cuddly and you like being in a club and you don't like Nigel Farage then fine - but don't sign away your rights because you believe in a lot of inaccurate nonsense written by a pro-EU Facebook user.