Talk me out of Brexit. I am ashamed of myself!

[MerryMarigold]

So, all along I have been very against Brexit. To be truthful, I don't know enough about it all, but I felt like it's an isolationist policy, a selfish policy and the political leaders at the forefront (self serving in the extreme) were enough to put me off in a big way. I also have very many friends from Europe.

However, I have recently had pause for thought and wanted to share this with you. Two stories of people 'on the ground' that have made me have a rethink.

a) A good friend of mine who moved here from the Caribbean when he was 15, with his siblings and Mum. His Mum worked here, has an NI number, a pension and an NHS number but relocated back to the Caribbean for retirement. She is now old and needs more help so has come back here, but she can't get residency, despite all her family being here. The Home Office have basically said there one remit is to reduce immigration, so this is why it's so much more problematic than it would be a few years ago.

b) A friend of my Mum's recently died of cancer. She was young. Her Mum lives in Ghana. It was extremely difficult for her to get a visa to come for the funeral. All sorts of hoops needed to be jumped through. I don't know the ins and outs, except that at a very difficult time, her daughter's death and funeral, she had a very hard time making it over here.

So, my thoughts are now that with the influx of European migrants, are we actually becoming more isolationist? Are we so focussed on Europe that we are reducing those coming from other countries who may be in greater need? Is the pressure to reduce immigration so great, that those from Africa/ Asia/ Caribbean are finding it ridiculously difficult? Is a result of being in the EU that we can't offer refuge to Syrians? Would exiting Europe help others in the world have more access to the UK?

I am well aware that if we ever do exit the EU that it is not suddenly going to be easier for the rest of the world to enter the UK, certainly with this government, but the principle is there. That we can be more open if we are less open to Europe. Possibly. Maybe. I don't know.

I don't have time to read every last article on this subject so I was wondering if you can help me feel more positive about staying. I really would prefer to vote to stay, but not if the effect is to close us to everyone except Europe.

we can exit later.

When is the date of the referendum after this one?

Their accession to the EU will bring about an international emergency.

Them's strong words.

Disgraceful things, from a human rights point of view, have happened in countries far less Muslim closer to home than Turkey too.

Accession to the EU could well encourage and expedite education, awareness and an amelioration of the problems Turkey experiences.

I find it odd that every time we've voted "no" to legislation we've been outvoted, so that the voting results would have been identical if we never voted at all!

Just5minswithDacre I guess Sapphire is getting at the fact that it is not going to happen in the current context - perhaps in 30 years Turkey will be a different place but it's basically impossible right now (see overview below). Seems the Commission currently agrees with you on the “discrimination against women and gender-based violence”, and “backsliding” on freedom of expression, media and the internet.".

infacts.org/ukip-turkey/
"To join the union, candidate countries must satisfy the Commission that they have adopted European policies in 35 “chapters”. Since applying for full membership to the then European Economic Community in 1987, Turkey has managed to close only one chapter – science and research. Talks haven’t even opened on 20 chapters.

Before Turkey can close the chapters it has to solve many of the issues raised in UKIP’s video. The Commission recognised this in a 2015 report, highlighting concerns on “discrimination against women and gender-based violence”, and “backsliding” on freedom of expression, media and the internet.

Even if Turkey opens and closes all 35 chapters – which is far from certain – all existing EU members would have to approve. Both the UK government and the Houses of Parliament would have a veto – meaning UKIP’s contention that Turkey could join without the British people having a say is disingenuous. In sum, it will be a long time if ever before Turkey belongs to the bloc."

winterbiscuit maybe. But on the other hand, the UK is recognised to generally get its way and considered a positive force in EU legislation. remember the UK supported 97% of the agreed legislation.

Also there are some cultural differences in voting, the UK tends to vote against things even if they know they will lose, sometimes other Member States don't bother to do that if they know they will lose (i.e. abstain), ie. often the UK wants to make a statement on specific issues, other Member States may prefer not to for political reasons.

It's such a mass of problems in Turkey, though, Sapphire, not one or two issues. Understandably, a very large proportion of Turks want to leave. Ditto Albanians and so on. We have major ecological crises coming imminently and we need a more rational approach than allowing more and more people to flock North.

Then there's the Syria aspect. We can't help the Middle East by opening the EU to significant land border to the region. We need to stay separate to be able to help.

These are going to be the big issues of the next few decades.

Just5 on that note,

"What about UKIP’s other contention – that 15 million Turks could leave for Europe within a decade of membership? That also seems most unlikely given that David Cameron persuaded the EU to adopt a new strategy for admitting new members in 2014. This provides for “transitional measures and/or a safeguard mechanism on the free movement of workers” – which probably means that, even after becoming a member, there would be a long period before Turks were allowed to move freely across the EU. What’s more, if the UK still didn’t like the deal negotiated, it could veto it."
infacts.org/ukip-turkey/

Just5minswithDacre I guess Sapphire is getting at the fact that it is not going to happen in the current context - perhaps in 30 years Turkey will be a different place but it's basically impossible right now (see overview below)

Kitty now that the EU needs Turkish assistance re middle eastern migrants (and that will be a continuing situation) I think those conditions will be diluted and the timescale will shorten considerably.

We've seen transitional protections before and I'm cynical about their impact but I'll catch up on a lot of these links later.

I just see a situation where the poor and low paid of many nations become an enormous, mobile, incredibly cheap workforce. Those who move from a poorer country to a wealthier one benefit slightly, but low wages stay low for all nationalities, welfare states buckle under the strain and nations lose the ability to legislate effectively.

Meanwhile we have ecological, population and terrorist time bombs ticking away globally that we won't be well equipped to confront.

Just5 well I think you're wrong. The deal with Turkey allowed the possibility of opening one more chapter on Accession (bear in mind there are 35).

The relationship with Germany and Turkey is not great right now really - what with Erdogen describing Merkel as Hitler for this recognition of the Armenian Genocide.

Don't forget Cyprus is also an EU Member with a Veto and will never give Turkey a free ride.

And just how will leaving help these ecological time bombs eg? Leaving will be a mess for years and really important climate and other legislation will get stuck/ put on the backburner just at the time we need a strong UK in Europe.

For Terrorist timebombs you need cooperation mechanisms.. information sharing etc. which security services are notoriously bad at, but within the EU there has been some progress.

just5 your vision of a poor and low paid work force is one that many Member States in the EU fight against, much harder than the UK has ever done. The UK is one of the most in favour of deregulation of labour.

But we have a literally bottomless supply of the cheapest possible labour, courtesy of the EU and the oversupply has hugely depressed wages. We have regressed decades in terms of poverty in this country (for workers of all nationalities). I see clients in Dickensian conditions every week. So something about this EU utopia isn't working at ground level.

Leaving will be a mess for years and really important climate and other legislation will get stuck/ put on the backburner just at the time we need a strong UK in Europe.

Why will it be a mess for years? There would be some legislating and reorganisation to do but we're the country that invented the Westminster model of parliamentary democracy (adopted all over the world). We can cope. It would be really reinvigorating, politically.

But Just that's also to do with how the UK sets the labour terms in the UK. In other Member States, it's regulated a lot more (of course that means more goes on the black market.. ) Again, I don't think leaving will help also because of the major economic shock of the uncertainty which will certainly impact the poorest, as usual.

Just It will at a conservative estimate take 5 years to renegotiate all the EU legislation, I reckon more like 10. A process which many lawyers and lobbyists will do well out of and meanwhile will direct resources in teh government away from key issues like climate. of course we're capable of doing it, but don't pretend we have unlimited resources to deal with new trade negotiations everywhere, renegotiations with the EU and any new legislation everywhere.. can't be everywhere at once!

meanwhile things that need to be agreed now (like on climate - we literally have NO time left on that) will get delayed...

But Just that's also to do with how the UK sets the labour terms in the UK. In other Member States, it's regulated a lot more

But not here, so the working millions get the worst of both. Wages at the bottom are static and housing costs are rocketing. Something's got to give. I can't see any answer on the horizon other than Brexit.

just your beef is with the UK government in this scenario - not with the EU. BREXIT due to the economic impacts and likely political instability will just make it worse.

Just It will at a conservative estimate take 5 years to renegotiate all the EU legislation, I reckon more like 10. A process which many lawyers and lobbyists will do well out of and meanwhile will direct resources in teh government away from key issues like climate.

Yes a few people will make a packet, but the process will grind on in the background and life will go on, the economy will stabilise and we won't be left lawless. Plus we will have whatever we pay into the EU annually to finance the transition.

Alliances and empires have waxed and waned throughout history. This is all very administrative.

I (now) think, in fact, kitty that the UK had always been fundamentally incompatible with the EU. We've never been contented, whole-hearted members have we really?

just you're right in that basically a lot of what the EU does is administrative. Boring shit that helps smooth trade etc, sets environmental standards etc. Which is why this kind of massive extra negotiations tends to set things back.

also, just look at the conservative leadership that is waiting in the wings if we BREXIT...

There is also a very significant risk that the economy will not stabilise in the short term. And meanwhile the money that you have in mind will likely not be available. It's been shown several times that there's basically no savings to be found from BREXIT.

But even if it was headed that way (more than superstitious fears - real, actual evidence), then we can exit later.

No we can't. It is now or not for another generation.

just - no-one is really totally happy with everything the EU does. It's a flawed organisation. but like many flawed organisations, the alternative is much worse. Plus, who is this 'we'? Many people I know love (at least some of) the benefits from being in the EU - have worked abroad, collaborated on pan EU science projects etcetc