Talk me out of Brexit. I am ashamed of myself!

[MerryMarigold]

So, all along I have been very against Brexit. To be truthful, I don't know enough about it all, but I felt like it's an isolationist policy, a selfish policy and the political leaders at the forefront (self serving in the extreme) were enough to put me off in a big way. I also have very many friends from Europe.

However, I have recently had pause for thought and wanted to share this with you. Two stories of people 'on the ground' that have made me have a rethink.

a) A good friend of mine who moved here from the Caribbean when he was 15, with his siblings and Mum. His Mum worked here, has an NI number, a pension and an NHS number but relocated back to the Caribbean for retirement. She is now old and needs more help so has come back here, but she can't get residency, despite all her family being here. The Home Office have basically said there one remit is to reduce immigration, so this is why it's so much more problematic than it would be a few years ago.

b) A friend of my Mum's recently died of cancer. She was young. Her Mum lives in Ghana. It was extremely difficult for her to get a visa to come for the funeral. All sorts of hoops needed to be jumped through. I don't know the ins and outs, except that at a very difficult time, her daughter's death and funeral, she had a very hard time making it over here.

So, my thoughts are now that with the influx of European migrants, are we actually becoming more isolationist? Are we so focussed on Europe that we are reducing those coming from other countries who may be in greater need? Is the pressure to reduce immigration so great, that those from Africa/ Asia/ Caribbean are finding it ridiculously difficult? Is a result of being in the EU that we can't offer refuge to Syrians? Would exiting Europe help others in the world have more access to the UK?

I am well aware that if we ever do exit the EU that it is not suddenly going to be easier for the rest of the world to enter the UK, certainly with this government, but the principle is there. That we can be more open if we are less open to Europe. Possibly. Maybe. I don't know.

I don't have time to read every last article on this subject so I was wondering if you can help me feel more positive about staying. I really would prefer to vote to stay, but not if the effect is to close us to everyone except Europe.

I think it is affected by the prevailing mood

Indeed. A prevailing mood that has become increasingly negative about foreigners.

And a mood that would improve and rebalance if we left the EU.

I find it hard to believe that the same people who are peddling nonsense like "foreigners will come here and rape your women" are motivated by a wish to see more immigration from Africa and Asia.

If we were able to conduct a fair trade policy with developing countries (something the EU prevents us from doing) then the economic benefits to those developing countries would result in jobs, giving hope to their citizens and making them less likley to feel they must leave their own countries in search of a better life.

The Fortress Europe created and sustained by EU trade policy is having a very adverse effect on those countries we used to trade with throughout the Commonwealth.

Some people don't seem to be listening. Arghhhhh. I am not saying the same people in government NOW will change immigration policy to be able to include more from overseas. I don't think that's likely in the short term. This is not an overnight thing.

I am saying that if we leave EU, and immigration from EU is reduced, that the mood MAY rebalance, that we can go back to the way things were even under Thatcher where Kenyans, Pakistanis, Nigerians, Jamaicans were able to get into this country a lot more easily than they are now.

Compassionate visas are also granted by the Home Office, so if their overall remit is to make it as difficult as possible for anyone other than EU to enter this country, they will make it as difficult as possible. Even in totally genuine circumstances.

I still feel economically we are much better off trading in the EU, however much we pay into it. So that's not a massive debate for me.

I find it hard to believe that the same people who are peddling nonsense like "foreigners will come here and rape your women" are motivated by a wish to see more immigration from Africa and Asia.

They're probably not MrsB, but that doesn't mean that it wouldn't be a very welcome consequence of Brexit.

(Farage and his ilk are only one faction of the 'out' campaign. I loathe the man and everything he stands for but I'm still an "out " supporter. Don't make the mistake of thinking that every animal with four legs is a cat)

I am saying that if we leave EU, and immigration from EU is reduced, that the mood MAY rebalance, that we can go back to the way things were even under Thatcher where Kenyans, Pakistanis, Nigerians, Jamaicans were able to get into this country a lot more easily than they are now.

Makes perfect sense to me merry

So, can someone clarify what happens to those people already here, who are from the EU, and have children with UK passports but are not British themselves, if we do exit? (Don't want to sell my friends down the river!)

No one really knows, Merry. Will my father (Irish) or my granny (French) be kicked out? I doubt it. But will either still be entitled to their pensions, benefits, healthcare? That's not clear at all.

Yes, I agree, Blackthorn. No one has been able to give any answers. That's one of the major problems with a potential exit, IMO; the uncertainties.

The UK doesn't have any trade negotiators currently in post, for a start; so if we DO find ourselves out, we'll have to hope we can find negotiators who are a) top-drawer and b) available to start immediately .

If you're an EU national you may well not get kicked out immediately, if ever; but you may well face a long period of not knowing. EU nationals in the UK are already talking about the uncertainty and not a few are already planning to leave. If you were facing potentially a decade of not knowing whether/for how long you'd be able to stay in the UK, might you not think instead about winding up your work/life here and heading back to your birth country or somewhere else where the terms of your residency are clearer? I think I might. I don't think that kind of uncertainty is good for anyone: obviously not the EU national themselves, and surely not for those others in the UK who have any kind of relationship with them.

Interesting to see that the pound has started to fall alongside the polls showing that the Leave side is gaining ground.

All I can see in the event of Brexit is a scramble for new deals/legislature/rules; a lot of uncertainty generally – potentially a whole 'lost decade' while the UK tries to adjust to the changes and work out what to do next.

There will be a two year hiatus from the referendum to any resulting EU exit, which is plenty of time for EU citizens in the UK and Brits across the EU to apply for naturalisation or the appropriate visa or residence permit.

I am saying that if we leave EU, and immigration from EU is reduced, that the mood MAY rebalance, that we can go back to the way things were even under Thatcher where Kenyans, Pakistanis, Nigerians, Jamaicans were able to get into this country a lot more easily than they are now.

Non EU immigration is currently twice what it was at the start of the 1990s.

I don't know how old you are, but I was a young adult during the Thatcher years and the idea that it was a paradise for African immigrants is just bunk. In the mid 1980s, my husband's best friend married a Kenyan friend (who despite her postgraduate degree was unable to get leave to remain) just so that she could stay in the UK.

Ok, thanks for clarifying on that Misti. Just all the Asians and Africans I know have been here for a good while, so I worked it out to roughly that era. I don't know any more recently from those countries (just on personal experience), but I do know a lot of Europeans (Spanish, Romanian, Lithuanian) who are more recent. I was a bit too young to really know much (Thatcher resigned when I was 17). Would love to see a graph on immigration from non EU countries from 1960s to present.

I agree there may be a 'lost' decade. The question is: is it worth it for the long term? For our children's generation? What would Canada do?

Oooh, I found one from the ONS. Looks like around 1995-2005 was best for International Immigration. Now falling, but only goes up to 2013 which is a bit out of date.

I agree there may be a 'lost' decade. The question is: is it worth it for the long term? For our children's generation? What would Canada do?

I'm not sure, honestly, how comparable Canada is. They have less and fewer close connections geographically; and they're a huge country. I do applaud their approach though.

In the UK, is Brexit worth it for the longer term? I think not. If we leave, European decisions that impact us will continue to be made; the difference is that we will no longer have a seat at the table when they are. Currently I think the UK gets its way in about 70% of EU decisions.

Just5mins, also, the international immigration is still higher than the EU, so that was an interesting stat. There is a breakdown of countries.

I just whizzed to the pictures! [[http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/2015-05-21 ONS]

Sometimes the only way is hard slog research (she says after looking up a couple of stats!).

Sorry better link

Can someone explain to me how Brexit is proposing to actually implement all these wonderful changes that they keep banging on about?

Last time I looked Cameron and the Tories were the elected government not Berxit so how much influence will they REALLY have to carry out all the fantastic things they say will happen with the money we will supposedly get through not being in the EU ?

Would love to see a graph on immigration from non EU countries from 1960s to present.

The migrationwatch website has various interactive graphs but they only run from 1990.

Net immigration has only been recorded since 1964 - and it was negative in that year. After that, migrationwatch says that the average number of commonwealth citizens accepted into the UK was about 72,000 per year in the 1970s but only about 54,000 per year in the 1980s and 1990s. This isn't 100% of immigration of course because there was a massive influx of Irish people into the UK in this period. During my childhood, it was common to hear anti Irish sentiment along with racist comments about black and Pakistani people.

Non EU immigration has decreased a bit in recent years, but it is still very substantially above historical levels.

Last time I looked Cameron and the Tories were the elected government not Berxit so how much influence will they REALLY have to carry out all the fantastic things they say will happen with the money we will supposedly get through not being in the EU ?

It's just being pointed out what the range of post-exit possibilities are.

The leave campaign (just like the stay campaign) are not a party. They're not presenting a manifesto. They're just arguing that the range of choices available out of the EU are preferable to those available in it.

Sometimes the only way is hard slog research (she says after looking up a couple of stats!).

What will happen to British people who currently work/study in Europe or who are planning /about to take up jobs or university places in Europe?

Does anyone know the answer to that or is it something that will not become clear until after the vote? I have a personal interest in this and I haven't managed to find any information.

So two to three million Brits across Europe will have to go through the process of applying for residence. Many, such as the retired and low skilled, won't get it - forcing them to come back and need support from the state.

What makes you think Europeans who are already here - who are on average better qualified than native Brits - will want to go through the lengthy and costly process of getting a skilled visa, when they can work in any neighbouring country without the cost and hassle?

frogs, again, no clear answers (and as has been pointed out, there WOULD be a two-year hiatus or grace period after an exit; however, my own feeling on this is that the hiatus would increase, rather than solve or improve, people's feelings of uncertainty and that a lot of EU nationals would just think 'screw this' and go home, taking their taxes and businesses and everything else they contribute to the UK with them).

But Brits abroad may have to rely on the domestic policies of their host country, which vary but quite often favour home workers over foreign nationals.

A deal whereby we join the EEA, which again has already been discussed on here, would maintain free movement for UK nationals. But the downside of being only in the EEA is that we'd have to accept rules like free movement but at the cost of the best trade deals and of having a voice in negotiations that affect us.