so 88% of top economists think that the UK will suffer financially for the next 5 years; 72% think the economy will suffer for the next 10-20 if we leave EU!

[Palehorse]

So we have the the IMF, the IFS, and now a big majority of top economists across academia, and the public and private sectors telling us that if we brexit, our economy will struggle for the next 20 years.

Surely this is the most important issue if the referendum. As a relativity low income family, I dread the future for my kids if we are forced to leave.

Yes, that's what I meant, although I now see my sentence was ambiguous - "in exchange for less influence in the EU, and for immigration".

This blog from Nicholas Barr at the LSE is one of the most cogent, unemotional and balanced pieces on the key issues that I've read to date. It almost exactly sums up my position.

That's a nicely dispassionate costs/benefits analysis, thanks.

The only problem is that this doesn't answer one of the most common arguments I'm hearing from the Brexit posters here, which goes something like "yes well maybe we're just about benefiting now, but who knows how the EU will develop, maybe 5 or 10 years down the line it won't work for us anymore"

To which I guess his response would be that all we can reasonably do is assess the current situation, and not hypothetical futures that may or may not look like what we think they will.

To which I guess his response would be that all we can reasonably do is assess the current situation, and not hypothetical futures that may or may not look like what we think they will

I think so. I think it's difficult to go further on either scenario (or multiple Brexit scenarios - including what the 'nightmare' future EU model some Brexiteers like to promise is the certain future would mean for other EEA members).

EU referendum: Why the economic consensus on Brexit is flawed (The Independent, 1st June 2016)