so 88% of top economists think that the UK will suffer financially for the next 5 years; 72% think the economy will suffer for the next 10-20 if we leave EU!

[Palehorse]

So we have the the IMF, the IFS, and now a big majority of top economists across academia, and the public and private sectors telling us that if we brexit, our economy will struggle for the next 20 years.

Surely this is the most important issue if the referendum. As a relativity low income family, I dread the future for my kids if we are forced to leave.

Mother - the EU economy is already in a tailspin.

I'm genuinely baffled by this. Where do you get this idea from? None of the concensus economic forecasts are for doom and gloom. For eg, taken at random from a site - www.focus-economics.com - discussing first quarter 2016 growth figures:

"Growth picked up pace in France and Germany. In France, an improving labor market and easy financing conditions supported the domestic economy, offsetting a weak external sector. Growth hit a two-year high in Germany—the Eurozone’s largest economy—amid booming construction activity and solid private consumption. In addition, growth remained robust in Spain, the region’s top performer this quarter. On the flip side, Greece returned to contraction as austerity measures and political turmoil continued to hamper the economy. Meanwhile, Italy continues to underperform compared to other major European economies, although growth did inch up slightly in Q1."

Just to come back - I'm not confused about how trade works, but by some of the things that have been said about trade, trading agreements, tariffs etc. There seems to be a misunderstanding that a trading agreement between countries is required, when it isn't. That is an important point to get over. Also important is the fact that countries in the EU will want to, indeed have to, continue to trade with the UK. They won't impose huge tariffs on our goods as the UK will then impose tariffs on their goods.

I agree with what you have said about trade, Mistigri, and I know that trade with companies in non-EU countries can be more difficult and costly. I'm just not so sure that trade with EU countries will collapse in the way it is sometimes stated.

Mother, yes, what is happening in France is relevant, I feel, as that is one of the major players. I find it strange that there has been so little coverage in our news about this. When there is coverage, it seems to be about petrol shortages, rather than the causes of the unrest. Why does France have unemployment which is roughly twice our unemployment figure?

Mother, I don't think so, as she was talking about the EU not France. But if what you are suggesting is true, it reinforces my point that much of people's "knowledge" about the EU economy is based on hearsay and sensationalist press reporting - the fuel shortage for eg has been very misreported in the UK.

Mistigri, I can assure you that I try very hard to see through the sensationalist reporting. Even Radio 4 is losing the plot at the moment!

Muddled you haven't explained why you think the EU economy is in a "tailspin" (it's really not).

Why does France have unemployment which is roughly twice our unemployment figure?

The answer to this question is not simple but you could identify:

• different ways of measuring (the UK has been rather successful at bullying the unemployed out of the statistics via sanctions and low-paid non-jobs topped up by benefits).

• France's rigid labour market which favours those in employment over the young and the unemployed (something the govt is trying, rather ineptly, to do something about - hence the strikes).

• France's much higher productivity levels which mean that you need fewer people to generate the same level of income. Some estimates put productivity in France as much as 30% higher than in the UK. That's a big number.

Also important is the fact that countries in the EU will want to, indeed have to, continue to trade with the UK. They won't impose huge tariffs on our goods as the UK will then impose tariffs on their goods.

Of course they'll continue to trade with the UK. But if the UK is not in the EEA then it won't be free trade, so by definition there'll be a tariff. It doesn't have to be a huge tariff, but even a small one can make a difference when the margins are small.

For example, tariffs between the EU and the US average around 3%. Not huge, but enough to be significant.

Currently we can trade freely with Europe, but that will change (although the Brexiters will say it won't as why would it? hmm

I've seen a lot of Brexiters make the "common sense" argument that free trade is in everyone's advantage so of course it won't stop. But this is just ignoring the realities of trade all over the world. Tariffs are the norm. Free trade is the exception. If it was such a common sense thing to do, why is it so rare, and why is it taking years of protracted negotiations with the US to achieve it?

(it's also ignoring political realities, of course, as there's no way in hell the EU would let the UK have free trade without free movement. But that's another kettle of fish.)

Free trade is to everyone's advantage, but only within free trade agreements. The reason for this is obvious. There are disadvantages as well as advantages to free trade, and each individual country wants more than their fair share of the advantages, and less than their fair share of the disadvantages.

A FTA is designed to ensure that the pros and cons of free trade are shared equitably. Without a FTA that sets out the ground rules, there is nothing to stop individual parties from competing unfairly.

I'm only following the French strikes from a distance, but what is coming across to me is that it's not just the protected workers in secure employment who are opposing the government's policy of making the workforce more flexible. It's also the young and unemployed, who would apparently rather stay unemployed right now, in the hope that they will also one day access this protected sector. (That's what I'm being told by my younger unemployed sibling, anyway!)

On the one hand this seems a crazy reasoning to me, which probably means I've been away from France for too long. On the other hand, there's something to be admired in the refusal to enter a race to the bottom, and the conviction that there must be a way to have both a healthy economy and decent protection for workers. Now they just need to figure out how to get there...

which probably means I've been away from France for too long.

Lol. The strikes are a regular topic of conversation between me and my teenager, who is more French than British, and is of "demonstrating age" (ie shes a lycéenne). I'm left leaning but I've pointed out that young people supporting the CGT on this issue is a bit like turkeys voting for Christmas (I should add that I'm generally pro trades unions and DH is a CGT member - they do a lot of good but they are wrong on this one).

To me the strikes are more about jockeying for power in the French socialist movement than about employment law. It's really just a proxy war between two wings of a ruling political party which is unpopular but has a weak opposition. In that sense it has more than a few parallels with the UK referendum, including the "turkeys voting for Christmas" aspect.

So the EU won't do us any favours after we leave. So what? We get along fine with many other countries in the world that we're not politically shackled to and don't do us "special favours". It sounds perfectly normal and healthy to me.

As others have said, we also have our bargaining points, which is exactly why the EU would rather we stay. IMO the EU takes from us more than it gives in pretty much every sphere. So it will be them that doesn't get "special favours" from Britain any more.

Just to add, other countries are now forming free trade agreements, such as NAFTA, ASEAN and the African Free Trade Zone. It wonder if it is the case (and maybe someone in the know could clarify) that the various trading blocs make deals with other trading blocs that covers their respect groups of countries and they get preferential trading rates , i.e. ASEAN and the EU. I don't know where the EEA and EFTA are in this, but to be in them you also need to accept conditions that people are saying will be shrugged of by a Brexit. e.g. Free movement of people.

the problem is nobody is clear on how it will be after a leave vote

Of course, none of us has a crystal ball and that includes the Remain side. Nobody can actually be clear on how things would be after a Remain vote either. We don't know how the EU will develop over the next 5, 10, 25, 50 years. There are no guarantees either way. I don't think that means we have to stay in the EU as I have far more confidence in Britain to make things work here than I do in the EU.

Winter, I'm sure you mean the UK. Britain (or Great Britain) haven't membership of the EU exclusive of Northern Ireland.

I think it's actually becoming increasing clear what the situation would look like after a leave vote, which is that harsh political and economic realities will push both the UK and Europe in the direction of the only available off-the-shelf agreement ie EEA membership.

No one wants to admit this, of course - the remain side don't want to talk about it because the negative economic consequences of a Norway model would be relatively minor, and the leave camp want to silence the "flexit" people because they know that EEA membership would mean compromising on the single issue that unites leave voters, ie immigration.

I've been thinking it'll come down to the EEA for some time. In some ways, it is a compromise solution. Britain would technically get its sovereignty back, and full access to the single market, in exchange for less influence in the EU and EU immigration. In my view it's an awful lot to pay to regain some symbolic (not actual) control, but hey.

my teenager, who is more French than British, and is of "demonstrating age" (ie shes a lycéenne)

ah, the démonstrations lycéennes... where French citizens are made

manifestations, not démonstrations!

damn, I've really been here too long...

Is the free movement of people not something that goes along with the EEA? So no change in EU immigration, but no say at all on the rules.