so 88% of top economists think that the UK will suffer financially for the next 5 years; 72% think the economy will suffer for the next 10-20 if we leave EU!

[Palehorse]

So we have the the IMF, the IFS, and now a big majority of top economists across academia, and the public and private sectors telling us that if we brexit, our economy will struggle for the next 20 years.

Surely this is the most important issue if the referendum. As a relativity low income family, I dread the future for my kids if we are forced to leave.

The UK actually has a lot of muscle and negotiating power inside the EU. Don't believe this myth that we can't stand up for ourselves

Yes, I'm intrigued by the narrative that paints us as submissive and powerless inside the EU but we'll suddenly develop muscle and negotiating heft and ability once we leave.

No, Beaky, Brexiters want controlled immigration - but from anywhere.

Oh FFS. The UK was never in for ever-closer-union anyway.

Some were. Heath was. He admitted he had to lie.

We were never forced to join the Euro or Schengen,

But when we have reaffirmed our EUplillia the EU will say, 'Why do you ned the £ now you've voted to stay in the EU, or why don't you adopt Schengen, now you've voted to stay in the EU?". And it could eventually impose these on us or some dopey UK PM could just sign away our £ and our Schengen opt-outs and there's nothing we could do about it.

and anyway Cameron just negotiated an explicit opt-out from ever-closer-union.

Ha, ha, ha

Any further EU treaty has to be put to a referendum which we could say no to.

There won't be any future EU treaties.

BTW other countries are saying no to ever-closer-union too, which is why there probably won't be another treaty anyway.

But we are supposed to be having Dodgy Dave's special deal written into the next Treaty. Now you say there won't be one?

The UK actually has a lot of muscle and negotiating power inside the EU.
Don't believe this myth that we can't stand up for ourselves

But that's what project Fear is all about. Weak, wimpish little Britain, blown around on the breeze of other countries because we simply could not stand up for ourselves outside the EU. Come on, you're at least supposed to play along with this scenario if you are on the Remain side.

Exactly. How come we're so powerless against Big Bully EU but will be brave and fearless if we leave?

Right. The EU is going to force the Euro on us? And Schengen? Uh huh. Absolutely. Give me my tinfoil hat.

And why, pray, would the governments of the other 27 countries - several of which aren't in the euro and have no desire to join, and are opting out of Schengen unilaterally - want to take these extreme actions?

Exactly. How come we're so powerless against Big Bully EU but will be brave and fearless if we leave?

Because much as our political elite try to make us seem small weal and lacking in global influence we

are the 5th argest economy in the world
have a permanent seat on the UN Security Council
are founder members of NATO
are members of the G8 and G20
have a seat on the World Trade Organisation which we currently are unable to occupy
are members of the Commonwealth
and countless other international bodies.

That all amounts to one heck of a lot of global influence, should be chose to exercise that power.
The problem is that Cameron has failed to exert that power and ended up stumbling away from his 'negotiations; with the EU with absolutely nothing of any value or substance.

His so-called agreement on zero-rating Tampax has also been rejected.

Nauseating incompetence.

Oh go away and concentrate on defenestrating Cameron or whatever it is you Tories are obsessed with at the moment.

Most of us couldn't give a shit about what's going on in the Tory party, just a shame the entire country has been dragged into the loony obsessions of a tiny minority.

Right. The EU is going to force the Euro on us? And Schengen? Uh huh. Absolutely. Give me my tinfoil hat.

Yes. They could. Once you hand power over yourself to another authority that you cannot control you place yourself at their mercy.

interesting use of the term 'tin foil hat'. There was another poster on these threads who used that term a lot.

And why, pray, would the governments of the other 27 countries - several of which aren't in the euro and have no desire to join, and are opting out of Schengen unilaterally - want to take these extreme actions

They have no choice. All new countries joining the EU must adopt the Euro and must join Schengen. Poland must adopt the Euro and is continually putting off the date by which it must do so.

I am interested in how you Remainers see the EU panning out. The EU has specifically stated that it is not a 'pick and mix' organisation and their drive towards harmonisation across all members states is clear to see. It is going to be like a comet with the UK trailing in it's wake? If so, let's just jettison now

LOL. I'm only the second person who's suggested you're a conspiracy theorist, seriously?

Yawn. Why do the Brexiteers harp on about Cameron so much? This issue is so much greater than an individual politician or even an individual UK government. Trying to make it about personality politics is bizarre.

We joined the EU in 1992

Fair enough Winterbiscuit, got carried away here.

Although arguably Britain's involvement goes back to 1973, as a member of the EEC that eventually morphed into the EU in the early 1990s. Still a very different world back then.

For those saying the UK has influence, we have no influence in the EU for the very simple reason the UK's interests are not the same as the Eurozone as they always voted in Eurozone interests & outvote us. The UK has voted against a motion 72 times in the EU Council and we have lost 72 times! so much for influence

Of course the Uk has a lot of influence, it's a myth that it doesn't.

Counting lost votes is a terrible way of measuring this, because the British strategy is to influence law-making at the drafting stage, through alliances and negotiations.

www.wsj.com/articles/in-brexit-debate-u-k-s-lack-of-influence-in-eu-is-greatly-exaggerated-1458154337

The Uk has 13% of the vote in the EU Council of Ministers.

Up until recently the UK had 29 of the 352 votes on the Council (8%). That share has indeed declined over time, from 10 out of 58 (17%) when we first joined. It has now risen to 13% because population is now taken into account when determining influence. (Hmmm).

So the 5th largest economy in the world - the UK has just 13% of influence within the trading bloc to which it is shackled and which makes its trade deals for it.

And that influence will decline and be diluted by every new member country that joins the EU.

Influence? - hardly.

Indeed we are the 5th largest economy in the world, springing. We will want the other biggest economies to trade with bien sur. Which economy is listed as no. 1 or 2 on the list (according to which measure you read)? Clue, not the US, China! or Japan. You wouldn't want to fuck off one of the largest world economies would you? When you didn't have to?

You are confusing votes with influence, which as people have explained to you in previous threads is pretty facile and shows a misunderstanding of how most EU business gets down.

You wouldn't want to fuck off one of the largest world economies would you? When you didn't have to?

If you are suggesting that they would in some way penalise us I think you'd find they wouldn't be one of largest world economies for long as we are one of their major markets.

People forget - trade is two way.

You are confusing votes with influence, which as people have explained to you in previous threads is pretty facile and shows a misunderstanding of how most EU business gets down.

I'm not confusing anything. We were discussing influence. Influence as measured in votes. Influence that is not measurable is rather worthless, as Cameron proved when he failed to achieve anything substantial in his 'special deal'. So much for our influence there.

If you are suggesting that they would in some way penalise us I think you'd find they wouldn't be one of largest world economies for long as we are one of their major markets.

Er, no.

We're really not that significant for them (we certainly rely more on the EU than the converse) and it is in the domestic political interests of several major Western European governments to make Brexit look messy and painful to their domestic audiences.

We're really not that significant for them (we certainly rely more on the EU than the converse) and it is in the domestic political interests of several major Western European governments to make Brexit look messy and painful to their domestic audiences

Oh please!. We are the 5th largest economy in the world. Stop trying to make the UK seem small and weak - it isn't. It just suits REMAIN case to try to portray it that way.

So you are telling me that several major western european governments are prepared to increase their domestic unemployment by refusing to trade with us and will be hell bent on some bizarre mutually assured destruction because we had the tenacity to leave the EU? Really? And they call the LEAVE voters conspiracy theorists?

The EU is the biggest confidence trick ever perpetrated on the people of this country and more and more people are finally waking up to this.

Oh please!. We are the 5th largest economy in the world. Stop trying to make the UK seem small and weak - it isn't. It just suits REMAIN case to try to portray it that way.

Realism hurts, I get that. We're a big economy, but we are one coming out of a deep recession and one that is heavily reliant on EU trade. If we leave the EU and services in particular become cheaper for our EU export markets within the EU, due to tariffs, than from us, then it is us who will pay the price. The country we were exporting to will pay a little more, or get a slightly lower quality service (or product). The cost to the UK would be significantly higher.

So you are telling me that several major western european governments are prepared to increase their domestic unemployment by refusing to trade with us and will be hell bent on some bizarre mutually assured destruction because we had the tenacity to leave the EU? Really? And they call the LEAVE voters conspiracy theorists?

Oh dear. You are back at 'refusing to trade with us' again. Why do you invent such silly things? This is economics 101. If we are no longer in the EU, we don't get the benefit of being in the free trade area. This will have the effect of making our goods and services more expensive for those customers who currently buy about half of what we export. They may choose to go elsewhere, meaning a negative impact for our producers.

Given that major beneficiaries of the trade in UK services becoming too expensive are Western European, it would certainly not be outwith possibility

Equally, with elections looming for a number of EU member states with their own anti-EU parties, the governing parties will not want to give Britain an easy ride in agreeing a trade deal or accession to the EEA that is not significantly less advantageous to Britain than our current membership of the EU. The stakes are much higher for Eurozone countries when it comes to the imperative to keep the EU together and they will want to make an example of Britain to their domestic political audiences.

I know the truth can be painful. I have a great deal more respect for Brexiteers like Lord Owen who admit that there would be significant economic pain with a Brexit but he thinks it's worth it. The Streets Are Paved With Gold brigade are a little ridiculous.

Counting votes is not a very good way to measure influence:

Much of the hard bargaining takes place long before decisions reach the Council floor; governments set out their priorities and red lines early in the process and the details are hammered out between EU ambassadors. Unpopular initiatives may be killed off before they come to the Council.

When it comes to voting, countries adopt different approaches. France, for example, rarely votes against any EU proposal: It will fight hard for its priorities in negotiations, but prefers publicly to side with the consensus rather than be seen to have been outvoted. The U.K., in contrast, is more willing to register any disagreement, reflecting domestic political pressure to be seen as "standing up to Brussels," a trend that has intensified since 2010.

So political scientists have tried to come up with better measures of national influence within the EU.

For example, one study asked officials from across the member states with which countries they most closely cooperated in EU rule-making. On this score, the U.K. stands out as the most influential: 20 of the 26 delegations cited U.K. officials as among their principal partners, reflecting the U.K.'s perceived success in securing its objectives.

Another study looked at how closely the outcomes of EU negotiations reflected the original policy positions of national governments; again the U.K. scored highly, coming out fourth, ahead of France and Germany. That may reflect the U.K.'s rigorous approach to EU legislation, which requires broad cross-government consultation to identify British negotiating objectives.

www.wsj.com/articles/in-brexit-debate-u-k-s-lack-of-influence-in-eu-is-greatly-exaggerated-1458154337

Realism hurts, I get that.

You really don't. You are failing to recognise that the UK is the 5th largest economy in the world. You are using the Nick Clegg argument that the UK is too small and uninfluential to make it alone in the world. You are wrong.

We're a big economy, but we are one coming out of a deep recession and one that is heavily reliant on EU trade.

In comparison to many EU economies the UK is actually booming. The overall EU is the only trade bloc in the world that is actually shrinking, apart from Antarctica. There is a lot of business that we could be doing globally but are prevented from doing so by our EU membership

If we leave the EU and services in particular become cheaper for our EU export markets within the EU, due to tariffs, than from us, then it is us who will pay the price.The country we were exporting to will pay a little more, or get a slightly lower quality service (or product). The cost to the UK would be significantly higher.

There is no single market in services. You appear to be blinded by the idea of one-sided tariffs. Countries do not impose tariffs lightly. With tariffs come penalties.

Your whole argument appears to be on the false idea that little weak UK should be so happy and beholden to the wonderful EU that deigns to trade with it. Nothing could be futrher from the truth. Outside the EU we would be the EU's biggest trading partner. You do not place punitive tariffs on your biggest export market unless you want to see a huge decline in exports and a rise in your domestic unemployment.

Equally, with elections looming for a number of EU member states with their own anti-EU parties, the governing parties will not want to give Britain an easy ride in agreeing a trade deal or accession to the EEA that is not significantly less advantageous to Britain than our current membership of the EU.
With elections looming any Government is desperate to get its unemployment figures down. Treating the UK in the way you describe would have the opposite effect so we can safely assume that this will not happen.

The stakes are much higher for Eurozone countries when it comes to the imperative to keep the EU together and they will want to make an example of Britain to their domestic political audiences.

The stakes are very high for the Eurozone country as the loss of the UK's net contributions to their economies and the UK's absolution from having Eurozone bailout costs placed on it by the EU will be keenly felt by the EU and will be celebrated by the UK.

You really don't. You are failing to recognise that the UK is the 5th largest economy in the world. You are using the Nick Clegg argument that the UK is too small and uninfluential to make it alone in the world. You are wrong.

No, it'd be really great if you didn't make up what I was arguing, and look at what I'm actually saying. Which is that the short to medium term pain of Brexit would be significant due to the need for a massive restructuring of or export markets.

Would we be ok eventually? Yep. Would we be as prosperous as if we'd stay in the EU? That's the contentious one. No one knows, and even the rosiest Brexit predictions don't make me think the short and medium term pain and heartache for Britain is worth it.

With elections looming any Government is desperate to get its unemployment figures down. Treating the UK in the way you describe would have the opposite effect so we can safely assume that this will not happen

Why do you think a tough trade deal for Britain that gave a competitive advantage to their own domestic firms in intra-EU trade, and gave multinationals headquartered in Britain an incentive to move inside the EU, have a particular effect on employment over and above the economic shock Brexit itself would have? What information leads you to believe this?

The damage to the economies will already have been done. They'll want to seek a trade deal with Britain that is as protectionist to their own industries as they can manage. Why should they do Britain any favours?

You know, when I don't know how a certain entity is going to behave in a particular set of circumstances I find it instructive to actually listen to what they're saying.

Why should they do Britain any favours?

Why should Britain do them any favours?

You know, when I don't know how a certain entity is going to behave in a particular set of circumstances I find it instructive to actually listen to what they're saying.

The EU isn't going to treat us with kid gloves if we leave, that's for sure. However, I think if we stay it will be worse. They won't suddenly start being collaborative, polite and helpful towards Britain, until the day we give up and obediently go along with what have been the plans all along. If Remain wins, we'll be deemed to have accepted the EU's authority and be expected to do as they say. And I don't think Juncker, Merkel, Hollande's warnings and scorn are acceptable. It demonstrates their lack of respect for Britain and comes across as bullying. You don't stay in a club that's run by bullies, you walk away.