What's best for the next generation?

[HeckyWithTheGoodBear]

I really can't make up my mind on this one. It's the first time I've ever been able to vote (except from the last general election which I missed as I was in a postnatal daze and feel awful about as I can't complain about the Tories without feeling guilty) and it seems like this vote in particular is massively massively important - and ever so slightly overwhelming, and difficult as the two sides say specifically contradictory things.

Even in the official leaflet they put through my door, one side of the page said the EU costs us £++ and the other side said EU gave us £++. Most of us don't have economics/ politics PHD's so how is your average joe supposed to figure out who is telling the truth? I'm getting swayed every day.

But my main concern is what will be best for my baby DD, and any future children I go on to have. Lord knows the last generation has fucked everything up for me and my peers (in regards to housing, uni fees etc.). So what is the best decision for our children, IYO? Which decision means they are most likely to get a house, and a job, and a fair wage?

For me, the most important thing to consider is how the world in general seems to be changing. Today, we are globalised to an extent people probably couldn't have dreamed of when we first joined the EU. Britain could doubtless survive without being part of the EU, but it wouldn't have the same political or economic clout. I studied international politics at University and I really think most people don't fully understand how much our development over the past decades (as a centre of finance, technology, research) is entwined with our membership of the EU. It is convenient to most multi-national corporations to have their European base in an English-speaking country.

All that aside, however, my "In" vote is based mainly on my own experiences. I was fortunate enough to spend part of my university course in another EU country, at no extra cost. I then spent time living and working in that country. I credit that experience with developing me into the person I am today and it would make me feel very sad that my children wouldn't have the same opportunity. As posted upthread, of course you need to speak French to get a job working as a waiter in Paris. Being part of the EU gives our children the ability to access European education systems easily so that they are able to learn the language.

Just a word about Turkey. The accession criteria for EU membership are extremely strict. Turkey has years, most likely decades to go before meeting some of them (most notably human rights), although it has made good progress in other areas. It first expressed interest in joining the EEC in the 1960s and hasn't succeeded yet. Britain has traditionally been one of the strongest supporters of Turkey joining the EU (perhaps based on its large economy and military resources?) while Germany has been the country least in favour. Interestingly, in a recent poll of Turkish citizens, only 43% were in favour of joining the EU.

For me, the most important thing to consider is how the world in general seems to be changing. Today, we are globalised to an extent people probably couldn't have dreamed of when we first joined the EU. Britain could doubtless survive without being part of the EU, but it wouldn't have the same political or economic clout.

We would still have a seat on the UN Security Council, G8, G20 and other international organisations.
We would increase our international influence by regaining our own World Trade Organisation seat.
If we remain in the EU our influence as a nation will decline as the EU seeks to fulfil the role on international bodies that we currently occupy.

I studied international politics at University and I really think most people don't fully understand how much our development over the past decades (as a centre of finance, technology, research) is entwined with our membership of the EU. It is convenient to most multi-national corporations to have their European base in an English-speaking country.

Our colonial past and Commonwealth contributed far more to this country's development than our relatively recent membership pf the EU. It suits banks and other financial institutions to base themselves in a stable country with a stable currency i.e. the UK. And that will continue after we have left the EU. Basing themselves in London not only gives them the benefit of the English language but shields them from the inevitable fallout from the Eurozone collapse.

All that aside, however, my "In" vote is based mainly on my own experiences. I was fortunate enough to spend part of my university course in another EU country, at no extra cost. I then spent time living and working in that country. I credit that experience with developing me into the person I am today and it would make me feel very sad that my children wouldn't have the same opportunity.

People from the Uk have been living, working and studying in Europe and European universities for centuries - long before the EU or the international Erasmus programme. and would continue to do so even after we've left the EU

As posted upthread, of course you need to speak French to get a job working as a waiter in Paris. Being part of the EU gives our children the ability to access European education systems easily so that they are able to learn the language.

Maybe in the spheres that you occupy but in the average UK household the ability to access the European education system is not high on the list of priorities. The ability to learn a foreign language is not high on the Government's lis of priorities since foreign languages were dropped from the national Curriculum.

Just a word about Turkey. The accession criteria for EU membership are extremely strict. Turkey has years, most likely decades to go before meeting some of them (most notably human rights), although it has made good progress in other areas. It first expressed interest in joining the EEC in the 1960s and hasn't succeeded yet. Britain has traditionally been one of the strongest supporters of Turkey joining the EU (perhaps based on its large economy and military resources?) while Germany has been the country least in favour. Interestingly, in a recent poll of Turkish citizens, only 43% were in favour of joining the EU

Turkey already has a customs union with the EU.
A recent ECJ ruling meant that the UK has to pay Turkish workers unemployment benefit.
Turkish has just been recognised as an official language by the EU.
The threat of flooding the EU with migrants looks likely to win Turkey not only £6billion of EU funding but also visa-free travel throughout the Schengen area. Cyprus's possible veto has been squared away.

Turkey is edging towards EU membership in all but name. Turkey only has to threaten to leave NATO and all those hoops through which it must jump to secure EU membership will quickly fall away. And Turkey knows that threats - like the migrant flood, do actually extract from the EU, what Turkey wants.

Perhaps Turkey may take decades to secure EU membership. But Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Serbia are in active accession talks with the EU. They may even leap-frog Turkey in gaining EU membership

I echo many excellent points made by previous posters. The EU isn't static, the plan for the single superstate is only partially completed. There is no status quo to vote for - if you vote Remain, you're voting to see the project through to its logical conclusion - which is the mantra of ever-closer union, the transfer of what's left of the EU's wealth from the richer countries to the poorer, and the loss of sovereignty and democracy to a group of unelected Eurocrats.

Another issue to bear in mind is the environment. In twenty years' time, when your daughter is the same age you are now, there could be many more millions of people living in the UK, thanks to uncontrolled EU migration. Your daughter could be living with grey water usage for toilet flushing, tap water not from fresh rain, but from a desalination plant, nuclear power stations dotted about the country, fracking underground, beauty spots from her childhood given over to new landfill, sewage farms, housing and airports. Food prices skyrocketing as the farmland is lost to development. Native UK habitats and species extinct under concrete.

I'm much older than you, OP, and I know this is the most important vote of my life. It's almost certainly the most important vote of your life. You're right to think of your daughter's future first.

There are a few issues that I'm not sure I fully understand. After a discussion with my DH who is a definite remain voter with a good financial mind I remain confused.

Is it right that if we leave the EU we might still have open boarders? I agree we benefit from skilled workers and I hope our skills gap can be improved by quality immigration. I don't want everyone to have free access. We have enough problems with our prison systems already.

He seems to think the eurozone will inevitably collapse but this won't affect us!? How is this even possible? I don't understand how such a financial crash won't hit us.

He thinks the EU won't let in Albania etc. If that was the case then why are they in talks? The EU let Hungry and other countries join. He thinks even if they do join it doesn't guarantee free movement. All the other countries have eventually been given free movement so I can't see why this would suddenly change.

He says there is noway Turkey will be accepted. I don't believe him!

He believes uncoupling ourselves from the EU isn't possible. He says were too ingrained in the system

He thinks Inflation will rocket if we leave. He also thinks trade tariffs will be put up so high the UK will put itself out of international trading...I don't understand why we would do that?

Just a word about Turkey. The accession criteria for EU membership are extremely strict. Turkey has years, most likely decades to go before meeting some of them (most notably human rights), although it has made good progress in other areas. It first expressed interest in joining the EEC in the 1960s and hasn't succeeded yet.

The Middle East situation has rather strengthened Turkey's bargaining position, however.

It won't be decades until they join; It will be years.

Is it right that if we leave the EU we might still have open boarders? I agree we benefit from skilled workers and I hope our skills gap can be improved by quality immigration. I don't want everyone to have free access. We have enough problems with our prison systems already

No; Only British and Irish passport holders would be waved through post-Brexit. Everyone else would need a visa. We would be much safer than we are currently as a result.

I am more than happy to fill out visa forms for my European jaunts in return.

He seems to think the eurozone will inevitably collapse but this won't affect us!? How is this even possible? I don't understand how such a financial crash won't hit us.

He's right about the eurozone collapsing. But if we're still part of the ever-closer union when that happens, we will definitely be affected - and badly. We'll be affected even if we aren't in the EU, but to a lesser degree.

Greece is about to be granted yet more EU taxpayers' money as yet another loan to prevent them defaulting again on their spiralling debt repayments. All thanks to them being let into the EU on false pretences.

I find it astounding that people are basing such a serious decision on the spurious assumption that house prices will fall!!! That is just one hypothesis that the Leave campaign are bandying about preciously to convince anxious mothers who are worried about their precious darlings not being able to afford to buy. How about voting Remain so that our kids have access to university education (in English) across Europe for either free or minimal tuition fees? I couldn't afford to do an MA in the UK so did one in Belgium for fees of less than 1000 euros.

Or the fact that our children aren't limited to the UK job market, they can look for a job in any of the other 27 member states and live there thanks to free movement rules.

And whilst I'm at it. If we leave the EU we won't be kicking out the current EU citizens living here, that won't be allowed so it'll make no difference to public services. If we somehow did kick them out, they'd be replaced by the 3 million plus UK citizens currently living in Europe. Lots of whom are OAPs who will return home and put massive pressure on the NHS without paying taxes as young, working EU citizens do.

And please disabuse yourselves of the scaremongering that Turkey will join the EU. The U.K has a veto over such decisions and if we didn't veto it, Cyprus certainly will.

Yes, the eurozone will collapse. You can't have monetary union without political union, which I've been saying for a decade. In any event, Greece is bankrupt in all but name - and when it finally defaults we are going to be hammered regardless of the outcome of the referendum,as our banks hold a lot of that debt either directly or indirectly.

This is what makes it such a tricky decision.

For every reason to stay they're is a reason to leave

The IFS and IMS are part funded by the EU so I wouldn't trust anything they say about how leaving will be bad economically long term. They would say that.

Two years ago
Cameron was supporting Turkey joining the EU and I saw him on the tv saying it would only be a few years before they were members. He's backtracking now with the referendum coming up but
Turkey will be fast tracked in before long in exchange for taking the migrants/refugees back.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11283924/David-Cameron-I-still-want-Turkey-to-join-EU-despite-migrant-fears.html

The IFS isn't part funded by the EU. It has previously received EU funds for a project but so have thousands of other organisation in the UK, including all local authorities. You see all the regeneration of places like Merseyside and South Wales? All down to EU money.....

Interesting jelly, my DH is also highly focused on finance and thinks we should definitely leave because the things David Cameron negotiated have not been ratified by the Europen court.

I am sleep derived so please excuse me if European court is the wrong wording.

I really don't know which way to vote and haven't been able to process info. This thread is possibly the most useful I've read on here. Thank you for staring it OP

I think this is worth reading

www.andywilliamson.com/10-points-to-consider-about-brexit-and-the-eu-referendum/

A lot of the Cameron negotiation was needless. Things like being exempt from ever closer union - this is just a preamble to the treaties so has no practical implication in any case. The negotiation was a sham to make people who have no idea about politics think that a deal had been made when there was no need for a deal in the first place. I have never voted Tory in my life but even I feel sorry for Cameron that he has to go through this rigmarole to appease the politically uneducated masses......

I think, if you are one of the richest, much educated people in Britain, then staying in the EU is obviously good for you. If you are of average wealth and education or even poor, then leaving the EU might be better. To explain why, I'll type out some of John Kay's 2003 book "The Truth About Markets: Why some Nations are Rich, but most Remain Poor" It's long, but it's better than me trying to explain, after all he is a leading economist and I am not.

Heidi ($2,500) is a school teacher in Switzerland, Sven ($1,700) a farm worker in Sweden, Ivan ($900) a telecommunications engineer in Moscow, and Ravi ($320) an accountant with the State Bank of India. The figures in brackets are their monthly earnings. Although a dollar buys more in India than in Switzerland - purchasing power parities differ from official exchange rates - their earnings correctly rank their material standards of living. Heidi is best off, followed by Sven, Ivan and Ravi. Why? p. 280

Some teams are highly exclusive. If someone is not born a Walton or in the household of the Sultan of Brunei, marriage to an existing member is the only way to join the family. Wal-Mart, on the other hand, recruits employees and shareholders actively. If people want want to join, it will very likely take them. The Canton of Zurich is less exclusive than the Waltons but more so than Wal-Mart. It will admit citizens of another Swiss canton, but only selectively and reluctantly those born elsewhere. The more exclusive the club, the more valuable is membership. p.294

Heidi and Sven have high material standards of living because they are members of many different teams, and the organisation of these teams has evolved over centuries in a highly sophisticated manner, not only to exploit fully the division of labour to the greatest possible extent, but also to manage information, pool risks, achieve cooperation and co-ordination, and generate knowledge, and to do so within an extensive and elaborately developed set of conventions and rules. ... Ravi and Ivan are members of fewer teams, and some of these are ineffective: because of poor internal organisation, or because they are not directed to relevant social and economic objectives. p. 294

If you are still with me, I think it boils down to this: if being British is the most advantageous and most powerful "team" you are in, your position will be eroded the less exclusive that team becomes. So you should vote OUT.

On the other hand, if you are an investment banker at GoldmanSachs, for example, then GoldmanSachs is the most advantageous and exclusive "team" you are on, and your "team" has a lot to gain from joined up money markets. You are quite insulated from the particular country you reside in, So you should vote REMAIN.

I work for the NHS and can I say there will not be a massive influx of British pensioners post Brexit because the majority of those already come back to Britain for their healthcare particularly if they have a long term medical condition such as diabetes. They come back twice a year for their check ups, changes to prescription and also use it as an opportunity to see family. When I ask them why they don't use the health service in Spain, France etc they say they feel more comfortable seeing health professionals they can speak to in fluent English and they know how to access the NHS.

I also know the NHS is under massive strain. I work in a medical speciality which treats a lifelong chronic genetic condition which is diagnosed in infancy. A year's treatment ranges from £12,00-£45,000 per person and some require a drug which costs £250,000 per year. In the past 2 years we have had 10 new patients diagnosed who are from Eastern Europe and this has increased our usual number of new patients per year by 50%.

Life limiting Genetic conditions, diabetes, heart conditions are also higher in societies where first cousin marriages are common such as Turkey, Asia and the Middle East. They are incredibly expensive and resource intensive to treat if countries such as Turkey, Albania, Kosovo, Montenegro join the NHS will not cope in its present state and we will be looking at a private insurance based healthcare system.

I also read in The Times on Tuesday that UK universities were owed £89 million in tuition fees by 12,000 EU students who have now left the UK and they cannot make them pay. These have been underwritten by UK tax payers so Again a cost to the country we can do without.

Controlled points based immigration whereby we get the people with the skills we need.

Braindrain low and middle income countries. Woohoo. :(

to have a full and democratic say in the laws which will affect them

Or get rid of first past the post, or get rid of House of Lords & their pesky legislative blocking ways. Or change the HoL to a proportional representation chamber.

In 1992 plenty of people had terrible negative equity (in property) problems. Was that the EU's fault, too?

EU is on our doorstep. If we don't make an effort to help sort out their problems, their problems will come to us whether we like it or not.

Katisha thanks for that, i especially enjoyed "the idea of leaving the EU is somewhere between bat-shit crazy and economic suicide"

Prometheus

You see all the regeneration of places like Merseyside and South Wales? All down to EU money.....

We're net contributors. It's our own money, less what they take in administration. the EU doesn't have it's own money. Nor does the government.

Without wanting to come over as a 'Charlie big bollocks' I can afford to vote remain. Most people in this country can't. I'll be voting to leave as I genuinely believe it to be in the best interests of my children.

They will still have opportunities available to them (for European travel and study) but for me the main issue is one of sovereignty.

I've waivered, but I'm now firmly "out"

Turbinaria, I know a few people working in the NHS and they agree with you. Unfortunately on here you will either be ignored by Remain supporters (because they have no valid argument for what you say) or you will be told 'but migrants make a net contribution to the economy' (without explaining exactly what costs are included in this calculation - for e.g. the investigation into the murder of Alice Gross by a convicted Latvian murderer cost millions, that's a hell of a lot of income tax) or you will simply be labelled xenophobic/racist.

I'm voting to leave for my daughter's future. I think further erosion of democracy in Europe will lead to a rise in the Far Right and I don't want her to live with that uncertainty. I want her to one day maybe be able to afford her own home (to the pp who seems to think Brexit are using that argument , it's Remain who have mentioned it and are claiming it is a bad thing) and I want her to get a job where she can actually support herself because wages have not been suppressed by a huge pool of labour.

I keep hearing people say they want to remain in the EU so that they/their children can travel/work in the EU. Well my dd is learning Spanish at school but with a youth unemployment rate of over 45% in Spain how the fuck will learning that language help her employment chances in the EU? What language should she be learning? Swedish? Polish? And anyway I thought a couple of years ago everyone was lamenting the fall in teenagers choosing to study languages for GCSE. Are these the same teenagers who are planning to travel round/live in the EU?

As for the Turkey veto issue, if Turkey has to reach all these high standards before accession how the fuck did Romania get accepted?

Anyway, thank you OP for starting the thread, it's reassuring for me to see people taking a long term practical view rather than the usual theoretical bollocky one.

Ive spent all morning educating myself on the EU. I'm nowhere near done.

A few things that really stand out are the continual Maverick like decision making process they seem to uphold. I feel it's more enforcement than negotiations. The recent 'reforms' are actually nothing much in comparison to what we asked for and will make little difference. I'm still looking at how much influence we have on EU decisions! I wonder if we leave the EU how open they will be to debate. I suspect they will open up to negotiations. They continually change their stance on things they previously said were immovable.

The only definitive way of having any influence over our laws and immigration numbers is through leaving.

The last 40 years have seen no real change in growth or increased ability to trade. All economic promises made by the EU haven't seen results.

The Greece situation is a joke. I know we're supposed to be not involved in such payouts but the fact the EU is holding onto Greece under these circumstances shows it's aim to increase in size and control is stronger than into concern of holding onto dead economic countries. This leads me onto the prospect of additional countries joining. This is being encouraged. I don't understand the practical benefits of doing this. Especially with the additional countries corrupt political and organised crime record.

NATO has a larger role in security and peace than the EU.

If we weren't in the EU we'd have a much better change of assisting our Industry. The steel industry being the largest and most recent casualty.

Norway still chose to remain out of the EU even though they have to abide by some EU trade rules. They clearly believe it's worth it. Greenlandic fishing industry has expanded although they do struggle as they're such a small.

Good trade deals have still been agreed between none EU countries regardless of economic size.

People have always worked, studied and traveled in Europe regardless of their membership status.

We leave we suffer uncertainty and high prices for years. Trade tariffs with the EU will rise. Business will slow up for a while. We might get left behind but these are the same arguments thrust at us for not joint the € and I'm pleased we didn't.

Still a mine field!

Here's an interesting article from the Telegraph re: the case for Brexit

www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/25/brexit-will-make-us-richer-thats-why-leave-could-still-win/

Or get rid of first past the post, or get rid of House of Lords & their pesky legislative blocking ways. Or change the HoL to a proportional representation chamber.

There have been a number of efforts to reform the House of Lords and I think it's likely to come up again soon. There was also a referendum on the Alternative Voting system although not proportional representation, and again it's possible to support this and/or the parties which would like to see this system.

The British system isn't without its faults, but two wrongs don't make a right, and I see no such will in the EU for making things more democratic there.