To ask if you think we will stay or go?

[TheoriginalLEM]

sorry its the EU.

i don't know that much but my gut feeling is we should stay.

however i think we will leave because strength of feeling seems to lay with the leavers wheras i think stayers might beless likely to vote or be in the not that fussed camp.

John Major has a flippin cheek. His "expertise" consists of his failed experiment joining the ERM, 15% interest rates overnight (when the government still set them) and a round of tax rises to pay for it all.

He has precisely zero credentials to speak about the economics of EU membership, and like Wilson before him and Cameron now, his main priority in power was trying to keep the warring factions in his own party at bay.

The referendum we had on europe was due to divisions in the Wilson cabinet, not a real will to put things to the people, this one is no different - Cameron is saying to Boris et al - we'll let the people vote then you'll have to shut up and go along with them (whilst hoping we vote to stay).

"Costs will undoubtedly increase due to the fact that we will have to pay more tariffs."

So the Germans will bash up some sort of a trade wall against us? Why would they do that?

We will definitely stay. Although I think the majority don't want to be in Europe, they would be too scared to vote leave. The stay campaign has done a great job at frightening people about the supposed consequences of leaving.

I think we'll stay, but also believe it's a done deal already as the elections are too.
I think we believe we live in a democracy but much of it is taken out of our hands.
What those in power want, they shall get.

Not quite sure what your point is though...

It's simple, you just need to argue from a point of logic and consistency. You cannot say PR is democratic for the EU, but not for us - nor could you argue the reverse.

The relationship between our process and the EU is a side issue anyway. I asked upthread - how is us being forced to enact laws nobody in our country wants democracy? I even cited the Tampon tax as an example - I bet if we held a referendum on that, those in favour of the ridiculous EU policy demanding we charge VAT on tampons would be tiny - but it's a stupid law we still have to enforce - how is that democratic?

We will lose the right to go to the EU to study with low fees if we leave

We might lose the legal right, but it doesn't mean it would stop happening. Plenty of UK students go to no EU countries to study too.

Simple import/export law here. We currently deal with the EU as if we are all in one big country but once we are not, there will be barriers to be overcome, agreements to be negotiated.
Fair enough, but you haven't answered the question, which was why do you think the Germans would want to do anything to hinder trade with us, when we buy so much from them? Why would they do that?

Democracy as I've always understood it is the will of the people. When you get stuff none of the people want - that's not democracy, it doesn't matter how you got there.

So you have no answer about why the Germans, either from within the EU, or alone would want to damage their trading relationship with us?

I mentioned them just as one example, but there are other EU countries like Germany who would suffer at home if we left and trade with them declined. Why would any of them cut off their own noses to spite their face?

The democracy argument isn't just about laws people "don't like" - it's about having to do things that damage our economy and our national interests, like having to agree to a system where a Dutch Trawler is catching 23% of England's fish quota and landing it all in Holland.

I believe that our trade with the EU will suffer if we leave, I cannot see why it would not.

Why would legitimate vaible trade suffer? There is no logical reason why it should.

I've been on the fence for ages but I'm now pretty sure I'm for leaving. I think stay will win by a small margin though, because status quo usually wins when issues are complex (and because Boris/Nigel are embarrassing). My reasons are:

1. It was a good idea to be in a club of 6 successful countries. It is not a good idea to be part of a club of 28 countries: it's too big to be efficient and there's too much culture clash / poverty within it. It will eventually collapse, so it's best to leave early. I'd rather some trade pain now than endure a massive collapse in 30 years just when I want a pension and my son a job!

1. When Turkey enters, the EU will border Iraq, Iran, Syria etc. Given the choice, I would rather have sea borders to France.

1. The EU has massive, increasing, power and little accountability. History shows that this combination tends to end badly. That is why democracy was invented.

1. The EU has formally accused Bulgaria of exporting organised crime to EU and certainly police have said that is being seen in my town (100s of local burglaries known to be carried out by a particular gang who do daytrips to UK).

1. Yes EU membership costs a fortune, and yes we need to control immigration better if we are to help struggling nhs/education, but those are not my main reasons. I'm thinking about what kind of country I want my son to live in, 30 years from now.

Oops longer than intended, sorry!

I'll take that with a pinch of salt - it came from the Daily Fail

The source I linked to wasn't the Daily Heil so that won't fly.

When Turkey enters, the EU

Not happening, at least not for the foreseeable. Opposition is widespread and deeply entrenched. Turkey's accession is a bogeyman being used by the Brexiters. They know full well how unlikely it is.

I work for a multinational company, so far this year I've spent time on business in France, Germany, Ireland, The Netherlands and the USA so I'm not some insular phobic.

Countries that wish to promote trade with us will make it easy.