To ask if you think we will stay or go?

[TheoriginalLEM]

sorry its the EU.

i don't know that much but my gut feeling is we should stay.

however i think we will leave because strength of feeling seems to lay with the leavers wheras i think stayers might beless likely to vote or be in the not that fussed camp.

How can anyone make a sensible decision in the midst of all the speculation and propaganda hastily dressed up as fact

We will stay in by a significant chunk....this according to the betting websites which are more reliable than polling data.

I agree with you glass.

Speaking about propaganda. Did Penny Mordant actually tell a bald faced lie on Andrew Marr when she said the UK can't veto on a new accession state's membership? Or not, in which case Cameron was porky peddling.

Didn't Spain and Belgium say they would veto Scotland's re-admittance into the EU under their own Independence during indyref ('cos of giving their secessionist movements of Catalans/Basques and Flemish notions).

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11054187/Spain-and-Belgium-would-veto-an-independent-Scotlands-EU-membership.html

The point about the House of Lords etc etc is that Brexit campaigners often build arguments based around the 'anti-democratic' nature of the EU, and the desire to regain our 'sovereignty'. But if this is the case, they need to think a bit harder about what democracy actually means. It is not just voting every five years on a ballot paper. For example, they supported the measures in the Trade Union Act on trade union political funds, knowing the measures are expected to remove approx. £7 million of Labour party funding, while leaving hedge fund donations by wealthy individuals untouched. They also introduced restrictions on campaigning on 'political' issues by voluntary organisations, while doing nothing about lobbying by corporations. There are also serious concerns around changes to the electoral register, which penalise younger voters who are less likely to own their own home, plus a failure to introduce secure electronic balloting, which might bring more young people out and boundary changes, all designed to entrench the Conservatives as the party of government for years to come, even though less than a quarter of the electorate turned out to vote for them. They also have the knives out for the Human Rights Act and a Home Secretary who wants to leave the ECHR. It is no surprise when people look at the EU as the last port in a storm. I sometimes wonder whether, if we had a more viable opposition, and a reliable prospect of a change of government in 2020, more people would be voting to leave. Time and again, I hear 'but without the EU who is going to protect us from 5+ more years of Tories'. You only need to look at the Tory members of the Brexit camp - Liam Fox etc - to see why they might feel this way.

And ironically, right at the moment, many on the left are saying thank God for the House of Lords - who cares, frankly, that they are unelected. Not me.

Figmentofmyimagination You seem to be making the ridiculous assumption that everyone who who is pro-Brexit is a staunch Tory who agrees with all their policies.

I am in favour of Brexit. I oppose the House of Lords, always have. I have never voted Tory.

For example, they supported the measures in the Trade Union Act on trade union political funds, Who is "they"? This was the Tories - who I didn't vote for.

I could go on, but frankly your attempt to suggest that Brexit=agrees with all Tory polices is just nonsense.

And ironically, right at the moment, many on the left are saying thank God for the House of Lords - who cares, frankly, that they are unelected. Not me.
Indeed, not me - and I feel the same way when Remainers keep telling me we have a lot of employment rights that we couldn't get from our own elected government. Being thankful you get things from people you have no democratic control over is fine when it's going your way - but it's a risky strategy.

Can you imagine the uproar if the referendum result is Leave and yet we stay.
Well that depends - obviously if it was 99% leave and Cameron just turned around and said "sorry, we're staying in" that'd be crazy. If Cameron went to the EU and said "what can you offer us to stay?" and was able to negotiate concessions that would satisfy a large number of Brexiters, we could have another referendum and vote to remain on the basis of a new deal.

Anyone who votes Leave because they think it is a bargaining chip to negotiate a stay is deluded. I agree it would be delusional to vote a particular way solely on the expectation of this as an outcome, but it's similarly delusional to claim it could never happen.

I will vote leave but I think we will stay.

Ah! So there'll be a second referendum, was! Are you serious?

Was on the list

I did say 'often' - I didn't mean 'all Brexit campaigners'! You should be careful not to dismiss peoples' views as 'ridiculous', as it makes you sound intolerant. Yes there are obviously some on the left who are pro-Brexit - this is hardly surprising given what has happened to wages and collective bargaining in Greece, Portugal, Spain etc. There would be more, I suspect, if the opposition was looking more electable. Unions like the RMT, who are staunchly pro-exit and have been running anti-TTIP campaigns for years, make strong pro-Brexit arguments based on their experience within their own sector, where they are effectively organised with a high membership density. They don't see the EU working time directive, holidays etc as worth shouting about, because they have achieved better rights through collective bargaining supported by industrial action. They describe themselves as the canary in the mine.

Indeed it is a risky strategy, and it is a measure of the failure of democracy in our own country that faced with the odds of another how every many years of Conservative government, so many would rather throw in their lot with the EU.

I want to stay but I fear we will leave. Everyone I know is voting Out.

We have to go. We can't be governed by the unelected. We are supposed to be a democracy.

I did say 'often' - I didn't mean 'all Brexit campaigners'!
You said Brexiters often make the argument about democracy, but then went on to say "they do this, and that" - you really did appear to be claiming "this is what they do"

You should be careful not to dismiss peoples' views as 'ridiculous'
Hello, pot meet Mr Kettle. If I was going to offer you similarly pompous and patronising advice, I could suggest that if you don't want to appear to be slinging mud at a group of people buy claiming they all support a particlar narrow set of views, you make it clear.

On the substantive point, all this stuff about the Queen and The House of Lords is totally irrelevant because the referendum is about the EU.

'All this stuff about the Queen and The House of Lords is totally irrelevant because the referendum is about the EU'

I disagree. I think the whole context is key to understanding why people take the positions that they do, and that certainly on the left, weaknesses in our own democratic institutions and the ideological positioning of our current government are two big reasons why a lot of people are not swayed by the whole 'But the EU is unelected', 'You can't get rid of them' argument.

Fair enough, but a few people on this thread (including quite recently) have responded to any contention that the EU is undemocratic with "but what about the HOL/Queen" as if that somehow magically negates the argument in some odd way.

Ah! So there'll be a second referendum, was! Are you serious?
I didn't say there would be - I said it could happen, and yes I am serious. I am not just some random tinfoil hatter either - much more seasoned observers have considered it possible, whilst some Bremainers and EU officials have been keen to discount it. As with so many things, it cannot be predicted with certainty, but I think claiming it could never happen makes no sense.

Remain at over 60% today! Great. I knew we'd do it.

Was, if we leave the EU, Scotland will leave the UK. Can you discount that as a possible consequence of Brexit? Not being resident in Scotland there is bugger all I can do about it. Apart from factor it in as another reason to vote Remain.

lavenderdoilly*
I think you are making assumptions that everyone agrees with what appears to be you view that Scotland must remain part of the U.K. I would have no issue with Scotland voting again if we left the EU. Although I am not Scottish and I don't live there I believe in their right to make their own minds up, and if we leave the EU, Scotland as a whole may wish to reconsider their decision. That's fine with me.

Was, you'll worry about Scottish Independence when we have a second ruddy great land border with the EU to police.

Was, you'll worry about Scottish Independence when we have a second ruddy great land border with the EU to police

Well actually, I won't, but feel free to keep on telling me what I think and feel.

Where's the money going to come from, was. If you are not bothered about maintaining border security for all the reasons other Brexit supporters are, then fine. I thought a basic tenet of Brexit was to secure our borders. If you're cool with a big land border with the EU, then feel free to say that when you post. Or don't. Your call.

We're just going to move this one over to the EU Referendum topic.

Well you are presuming that an independent Scotland could join the EU in its own right. Considering all the scare stories about the UK's propspects for rejoining the EU later, it seems doubtful that Scotland could get in quickly, or get a good deal. It is possible that Spain and France might raise concerns or even veto in relation to areas of their own Countries that seek independence. My attitude to Brexit in relation immigration is like for the rest of the questions - I wish us to be able to make our own choices, supported by proper democratic process. Whatever we (and of course Scotland) choose to agree and put in place in the light of future developments will be a matter for the future, but it's not of major concern to me.