To ask if you think we will stay or go?

[TheoriginalLEM]

sorry its the EU.

i don't know that much but my gut feeling is we should stay.

however i think we will leave because strength of feeling seems to lay with the leavers wheras i think stayers might beless likely to vote or be in the not that fussed camp.

the EU has done a lot to establish and protect worker's rights

Not in this country - most of the EU rights we had already, like Maternity Leave and pay, for example, both of which are more than the EU requires.

Well even if they have done lots of things that have ultimately been good for us, that was in the past and we can move forward still embracing and retaining those things we genuinely feel have been positive, but we would have the opportunity to ditch the negative things.

Good things happening in the past is not a reason to stay. Reasons to stay need to be about the present and the future, not about the past.

Not in this country - most of the EU rights we had already, like Maternity Leave and pay, for example, both of which are more than the EU requires

Indeed.

Mardle the article us called The Brexit Delusion if you want to Google it. You might need to do a free sign-up to see it.

I will vote to stay and I really hope we do.

thanks Rural

I was discussing this thread and the whole subject with DH yesterday as he is still undecided. He said 'I know all the arguments for leaving and I agree with them, but I just feel there are equally strong or perhaps stronger arguments for staying.' I asked him what they were and he said 'the economy and trade' so I asked him to expand on the specifics and he was a bit vague, and then realised that he couldn't really articulate what the benefits actually were. So he set himself the task of trying to find concrete reasons to stay in.

After a few hours of googling and reading and watching various Remain Campaign videos he came to the conclusion that he still couldn't really articulate what the reasons to stay in actually were!

So I think he's leaning outwards now....

What will happen to house prices and wages if we leave? Any idea?

Well, if the house prices do happen to go down, which I doubt, there's still a shortage of properties, good! Better for first time buyers and makes no odds if you're already on property ladder as the next property up on the ladder will be lower too. The wages probably go up, less competition for jobs.

How will wages increase with less competition if it becomes more expensive to import and buy things from Europe?

Personally I think the economy will dip as we gather ourselves together after leaving. I have a young family and want to get on the property ladder. I can't afford for this to happen in this stage of our lives. I'd rather stay and keep things as they are.

I think remain will win by a small majority. The reason for this is that whether people like it or not we know what we are getting as part of the eu. Brexit represents the unknown: different people will present different scenarios of life outside the EU and frankly who knows which is correct or closest to reality? People are too scared of the unknown when push comes to shove (look at the Scottish referendum for example)

I think that in the short term, house prices will go down, but in the long term they will go up again as they always do. But a slight correction wouldn't be a terrible thing. And I say that as a landlord whose 'pension' is the handful of properties I own and let. I am more than prepared to take a short term hit on the paper value of my property for a long term sense of security and hope for my children's future.

I think landlords who own loads of smaller properties in cheaper areas might struggle as EU migrants who are their core business either leave or stop arriving, or just have their right to be housed at the cost of the state removed. Also as people who previously could not afford to buy start to be able to again, so there will eventually be fewer tenants all round. But while it's a shame for a handful of LLs who may go under, it's better for British young families on the whole to have more entry level homes returning to the market at more affordable prices, especially in the south east. I would support any government initiative to help FTBs onto the housing ladder with low or no interest deposits, for example. That would be paid for by needing to dish out less HB in the long run.

I think in the short term wages will stay the same but in the long term they have to go up. There are too many business at the moment that claim they couldn't survive if they were forced to staff pay more, but as far as I am concerned if you can only manage to trade and make a decent living for yourself by exploiting others at the bottom and you don't actually turn much of a profit once your own salary is paid then you have a pretty flimsy business model that isn't worth saving anyway. And if all your employees are on minimum wage topped up by benefits then it's probably no great loss to the economy or the tax pot if you fold.

I would dearly love to see a return to a time when people in average jobs do not need to also claim HB and WTC in order to just survive. It's crazy that we have a system currently where wages are low, so many people go through the charade of paying tax then claiming much of it back again in tax credits and are reliant on in work benefits such as HB, instead of just earning enough to provide for basic needs in the first place. We need to go back to having proper fixed hours employment contracts with employment benefits and stability. I think the fact we have arrived at this situation is a tragedy and a bad joke. I am appalled that big businesses have been allowed to play the system at the taxpayer's expense for so long, and having a constant flow of cheap EU migrant labour has just enabled them to do it with impunity.

If we leave Scotland will go.
England will be left as a small far right principality having a small hissy fit about how great the Empire was and wondering why it has been left to tantrum without audience on the supermarket floor.

Far right? That's utter nonsense. You don't have to be a fascist to want self-governence and autonomy.

oops my mistake, Farage and Johnson are quite liberal.

They are not far right, not by a long, long way. Just Right. As they are perfectly entitled to be. It's not a crime.

And if you think that everyone who is going to vote out is a 'Kipper or even just a Tory then you are very much mistaken. There are plenty of Labour voters wanting to vote out.

I don't think Scotland will go. Not yet anyway. That isn't an argument for me to stay.

And the Labour Party mardle. Id love to see where Corbyn etc actually put their crosses on the day.

I have a young family and want to get on the property ladder. Do you know what the school place availability is like where you are.

Plus house prices coming down will help you.

"All my lawyer friends - two who are judges and closely involved in employment and Human Rights law - want out"
Most lawyers want to stay in. On the whole in the UK the better educated and higher your earnings the more you want to stay in and that's because it's the sensible choice for Britain. I only know one lawyer who wants to leave and he's very unusual.

On the whole in the UK the better educated and higher your earnings the more you want to stay in and that's because it's the sensible choice for Britain.

And again, that's the sort of thing we always hear from educated Labour voters as their clever little put down to people who are thinking of voting Tory or UKIP- 'they do it because they are too stupid to know any better.'

As I said upthread, let's not forget that the Stupids get a vote too. Educated MC Labour supporters are largely cushioned from the effects of the policies they support, that impact on the average low to middle income working family needing to use overstretched state schools, the NHS, struggling to afford housing or access care for their disabled relatives etc. Sometimes the Stupids have enough of being pushed around by people who presume to know what's best for them.

Undemocratic, bureaucratic, waste of money, lack of control over our borders, uncontrolled immigration causing massive pressure on public services
Now can you tell me why we should stay?

Most exports/trade are with EU countries so any goods sold int he EU will have to comply but we will have no voice in what those regulations are.

We do have control over our borders, that's why British border controls are in Calais.

Uncontrolled immigration - yes a lot of younger people eager to work have entered the UK, but in the 1970s/1980s a lot of people left the UK for Spain, if we leave the EU will they be coming back to Britain? Having paid nothing in to the NHS for decades but bringing their health problems with them?

Staying on health care, as EU citizens we can access health care in the EU on the same basis as locals, so if break your leg in France and you will be treated the same as a French citizen. If you have a long term health condition that needs regular treatment you can access that abroad, I'm thinking things like kidney dialysis It is now possible for someone on dialysis to travel abroad for a holiday and receive dialysis on holiday.

If you need an organ transplant it can be sourced from the EU.

Some EU countries have no uni fees and teach in English, at the moment students have the option of studying for free in Sweden and for much reduced fees in Germany and Holland either at undergrad or postgrad stage.

The Hillsborough families had the option to go the the European court of human rights and the only reason they got the new inquests was the Human Rights Act.

More frivolous reasons - buying alcohol and tobacco at lower prices in France then bringing them back with no limits, I remember when you had to declare more than 2 bottles of spirits.

any goods sold int he EU will have to comply but we will have no voice in what those regulations are.

And they will have to comply with our regulations such as the BSI British Kitemark which was introduced in 1903.

We have little say in the EU so I believe we should concentrate on getting things right in the UK.

I think landlords who own loads of smaller properties in cheaper areas might struggle as EU migrants who are their core business either leave or stop arriving

From the ruthless slum landlords I have witnessed making money from hovels, that would be no bad thing in my view. Its all cash in hand, certainly no registered HMO's, no standards in the house.

Staying on health care, as EU citizens we can access health care in the EU on the same basis as locals, so if break your leg in France and you will be treated the same as a French citizen.

This sounds very reasonable in theory, but in reality it's a vanishingly small number of UK citizens that are actually availing themselves of these sorts of advantages when compared to the vast numbers of EU citizens, particularly from Eastern Europe, who are making use of the health services here.

It simply isn't an even exchange.