To ask if you think we will stay or go?

[TheoriginalLEM]

sorry its the EU.

i don't know that much but my gut feeling is we should stay.

however i think we will leave because strength of feeling seems to lay with the leavers wheras i think stayers might beless likely to vote or be in the not that fussed camp.

Mother - I think you are misrepresenting what I said. I accept we'll need to make deals post-exits.

I don't accept that we have to make the same deal as two totally different and unrelated Nations - our "deals" may be better or worse in some ways - no-one knows.

We plainly won't have any say in stuff coming out of Brussels if we leave - but frankly, considering the regularity with which we've been outvoted (currently running at 71 - 0 against us), we'd struggle to tell the difference. In fact in our previous debate, you've fully accepted we have have to implement laws we don't want and didn't vote for (you called that democracy) whilst in the EU. The post-exit difference would be - we'd still have no influence (we don't now) but we wouldn't have to abide by anything we didn't want to. Win win.

Do you trust Boris, Nigel, Michael G to make sure we have the women's rights, employment rights etc that we have now.

No, and I don't trust Jean-Claude Juncker either, and neither should you. Getting rights from an unelected source that bypasses your own government is a risky strategy - it's fine as long as it's going your way.

wasonthelist I'm sorry if I came across as patronising, which wasn't my intention. But if you don't understand basic statistics (sampling theory is pretty basic stuff), then how can you read and criticise the existing research? Where is your research showing that EU migrants are bad for the economy / take our jobs / take more out on benefits than they pay in taxes?

they may well have when the report was written ....

it's a few years old things have changed

It impacted us then even if now some countries are now part of the EU and it impacts us now. Though if you want a report written to prop up your argument it can easily be done based on a few research papers that have added a few manipulated stats

But if you don't understand basic statistics (sampling theory is pretty basic stuff), then how can you read and criticise the existing research?
My criticism was based on the fact that there is no reliable way of determining actual use of the Health Service and the associated costs. Having a basic knowledge of sampling theory or anything else you're assuming I don't have wouldn't alter that.

Does it seem in any way odd to you that if such net contributions are being made continually, that services seem overloaded? If the research is correct, things should be improving the more immigration we have surely?

In any case, saying that immigrants make a net financial contribution (even if you accepted that) is (as I said in the first place), too simplistic - it , for example, totally ignores the effects on population density, privately owned housing, school places and a range of other quality of life issues.

Do you trust Boris, Nigel, Michael G to make sure we have the women's rights, employment rights etc that we have now. Middle aged white men know what's best for us.

Like Cameron, Osborne and Juncker you mean? We can vote the Tories out, but we can't vote out the EU.

UK law is more generous than EU law in many ways. Unless we vote to leave the EU, we could lose control of laws such as these, as UK law is steadily and irreversibly superceded by EU law.

We do not need the European Court to protect women's rights. While no country in the world has brought women complete equality yet, Britain has a substantial history of feminism. The UK has always been far ahead of the EU on women's rights.

The UK’s existing legislation on sex discrimination, the Equality Act 2010, would continue if we leave the EU.

The UK passed legislation protecting women’s rights, such as the Abortion Act 1967 and the Equal Pay Act 1970, before it entered the EU.

The UK's Sex Discrimination Act, the Domestic Violence Act and the Employment Protection Act were all achieved without any help from the EU.

The UK outlawed FGM in 1985 whereas the EU did so in 2012.

The UK's maternity and child care provision are far better than anything legislated for by the EU.

Statutory maternity pay lasts for 39 weeks under UK law, whereas EU law only provides for 14 weeks. In the UK maternity leave can be taken for up to 52 weeks, but the EU only requires a period of 4 months.

UK legislation gives women the right to receive 90% of their salary during the first six weeks of leave, but EU law only requires that the rate of pay in this time period is equivalent to statutory sick pay (£88.45 per week).

The EU causes problems for developing nations. If we vote "leave" we will be able to set up our own fair trade policies.

EU tariffs on African agricultural imports make it impossible for Africa to trade itself out of poverty, leading to famine, disease, war and people leaving as refugees.

EU fishing vessels to trawl off the coasts of countries like Gambia, reducing fish stocks for local communities.

The EU common agriculture policy leads to EU farmers dumping excess produce on African markets, meaning African farmers have to sell their products at a loss or even leave the market.

The UK legalised same-sex marriage in March 2014. In the EU, same-sex marriage has only been legalised in 12 out of 28 countries so far, with 8 EU countries banning it under their constitutions.

oh and as for
Where is your research showing that EU migrants are bad for the economy / take our jobs / take more out on benefits than they pay in taxes?
I didn't make any one of those allegations. As I said, it's much more complex than that.

I hope we leave

Sadly i think we will stay

I don't know where you got your 71-0 figures from.
It's 72-0 acutally - I came across it listening to John Humphreys interviewing John Major - He put it to Major, who of course, had no answer to it.

In the interests of balance, here's some discussion about how both sides are trying to twist the figures -
fullfact.org/europe/eu-facts-behind-claims-uk-influence/

"A few of the native Belgians I have spoken to have said it is time the UK went as they just cause more problems than solve. " I've heard the same from Native French and Germans - in particular, I'm sure you've heard the French (who I find gloriously frank in telling us of our shortcomings in a jovial spirit) talking in a very solemn way about our "Anglo Saxon" economics and working practises. The fact is, our adversarial legal system. the presumption of innocence and our approach to things being OK unless specifically banned, sets us at odds with much of the core of Europe, and the Belgians are right, we'll always be causing trouble as a result.

I hope we stay otherwise DH's job and mine will probably be relocated to Brussels as we both work in areas which relate closely to EU policies and laws. I also hope we stay because I genuinely believe it would be terrible for our economy to exit - markets will lose confidence in the pound and large businesses will switch to locations in the EU to take advantage of the free movement of goods, people and services. Businesses here which want to trade with the EU will have to abide by EU law in any case but the UK will no longer have any influence over those laws. Leaving in my opinion will reduce opportunities and increase costs of goods, services and travel. It is fantasy to think that the EU will give us a good deal if we leave and Motheroffour is spot on about the free movement of people issue, it will likely be a condition of any decent trade deal. The EU will not be falling over itself to help us post-Brexit - how would you feel about someone who walked out on you after 40 years?

I am not too bothered either way, but I think on balance we should probably stay, even if it's just for the sharing of terrorism intelligence (imagine one of the EU countries 'accidently' forgetting to tell us a terrorist was on their way to the UK if we had left the EU).

However, I am going to vote leave, simply because of the way the remain campaign have used scaremongering. I am aware both sides have done this, but to use taxpayers money to send out loads of leaflets spouting figures that are impossible to predict, is just just down right sneaky.

I want to leave purely for the fact I'm very suspicious of why Cameron is desperate for us to stay and don't trust him one bit.

Lott I don't trust Cameron either. But in a referendum where it is a yes/no question you'll end up on the same side as people you don't like.

Of the prominent 'No' advocates do you trust them any more?

Nigel Farage
Iain Duncan Smith
Michael Gove
Borris Johnson (who is solely in it for his own advantage)

And those from overseas:
Vladimir Putin
Marie Le Pen
Donald Trump

I hope we'll stay in - the EU has done a lot to establish and protect worker's rights, I think leaving would wreck us economically, plus, idealistically, I like the idea of countries coming together instead of isolating themselves.

And quite a few of my colleagues and friends are EU immigrants (a German, a Spanaird, a couple of Swedes, an Italian, a Frenchman, and a couple of Poles) - the (techy) industry I work in would be decimated without free movement.

MetalMidget - Brexit supports controlled immigration. If your (techy) industry requires, it can issue work visas for EU migrants to fill vacancies.

Your idealism is misplaced - most of the others are in the EU because they've got their noses firmly in the trough. Those that are having doubts, like the UK, will be following us through the Brexit door.

I like the idea of countries coming together instead of isolating themselves.

We can collaborate effectively without political unity though, surely?

Good article from The Economist here which outlines the arguments discover.economist.com/?a=21693568&cid1=d/soc/Facebook/dyn/21693568/20160330-00:00am/paid/social-LA/BR-PO/BRP3/n/subs/UK/BR-LIT&cid3=UM

I can't read that link, it's just inviting me to subscribe

I could read the link. But the article doesn't make me think we should stay.

Winterbiscuit is right about he law. I cannot understand why people think that the EU is the only reason we have any rights at all!

We were always ahead of the game and offer better rights than the EU insists on and than MANY OTHER EU countries have - hence why workers come here.

We would be better off out in terms of law. All my lawyer friends - two who are judges and closely involved in employment and Human Rights law - want out.