To ask if you think we will stay or go?

[TheoriginalLEM]

sorry its the EU.

i don't know that much but my gut feeling is we should stay.

however i think we will leave because strength of feeling seems to lay with the leavers wheras i think stayers might beless likely to vote or be in the not that fussed camp.

I hope with every fibre of my being that the UK votes to leave and it marks the beginning of the downfall of this undemocratic, bureaucratic faux empire .... as other countries follow suit.

I fear though that we will vote to stay in, and be condemned to the federalist madness for several more decades until eventually the whole edifice comes crashing down, as all empires and political unions created out of the out of the forcing together of nation states inevitably do, as history has shown us time and time again.

wages are low because the fat cats at the top of the pile are creaming it all off for themselves. it is a distribution of wealth issue, fair pay issue that needs addressing not immigration.
That's partly true; but you can't pretend that having countries with much lower wages doesn't produce an massive incentive - at least 172,000 people (net figure) from the EU came to the UK in 2015. That is a massive number by any standards.

The issue with jobs following Brexit is a red herring. There isn't a fixed number of jobs in the economy. There are more jobs when the economy is expanding, and fewer jobs when the economy is contracting. Migrants (particularly EU migrants) contribute more fiscally (in taxes) than they take out in benefits or services like the NHS. They take low paid jobs which allows the economy to expand and businesses to create more jobs, many of them more highly skilled (which tend to go to British workers). There is a huge amount of academic research to show this. The result of leaving the EU (and a reduction of EU migration) will be fewer jobs as the economy contracts. There won't be more jobs for British workers, there will be fewer jobs and a worsening of the fiscal position (affecting services or leading to higher taxes). EU migrants tend to be young, of working age, and healthy, our British expats in the EU tend to be older, pensioners and in need of healthcare. This will worsen the fiscal position even further if we vote for Brexit.

Turkey is not an EU member, its citizens have not been given the right to work/live in Schengen countries
This is true, however, -

Turkish nationals can expect vise-free travel to the Schengen Countries by June, the country’s EU Minister Volkan Bozkir said Tuesday.

www.schengenvisainfo.com/turkey-visa-free-travel-schengen/

Visa free travel won't provide a right to work, or settle, but you can see the way the trend is heading.

Migrants (particularly EU migrants) contribute more fiscally (in taxes) than they take out in benefits or services like the NHS.
This keeps getting trotted out but how is it possible to measure use of the NHS and associated costs? Answer - it isn't, and that's aside from the loading on other services. It's a simplistic "statistic" that doesn't bear proper examination.

I don't think big business in the UK is bypassing British workers and employing cheap EU immigrants
Have you been anywhere in the UK recently?

More reasons to leave from the Guardian's economics editor www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/20/brexit-best-answer-to-dying-eurozone-eu-undemocratic-elite

"This keeps getting trotted out but how is it possible to measure use of the NHS and associated costs? Answer - it isn't, and that's aside from the loading on other services. It's a simplistic "statistic" that doesn't bear proper examination."

As I said, there is a huge amount of academic research on this, and of course we can measure the use of the NHS, or at least estimate it closely (the assumptions always err on the side of caution). Here is one study, there are many others: www.cream-migration.org/publ_uploads/CDP_22_13.pdf

Why not look into the empirical evidence (have a look on Google Scholar, there are many other studies, and a huge amount of consensus)? Or would you rather make a decision based on a hunch? I suspect that for many people actual evidence doesn't really matter, they will decide based on their feelings. Which makes me very sad and not a little afraid.

And studies can't be skewed at all

I think this is part of he problem with the immigration debate. People will tell those sitting in Westminster the problems they have come across and some academic will come along with a report to tell them their own experience in nonsense

What about illegal immigrants there has always been a high number especially in the bigger cities truth is we have no idea how many illegal immigrants we have, sharing documents with those who are legally here

Except it isn't "actual evidence" - it's research based supposition. There isn't any attempt in the survey you linked to even estimate actual use of the NHS, just an averaging of costs extended to imigrants, further, as it acknowledges -
"Our primary data source, the British Labour Force Survey (LFS), is a quarterly representative
survey of about 60,000 households in the UK, or about 0.2% of the UK population.

So it, and the other studies are based on a huge extrapolation of a small data set.

These aren't "facts" - they are opinion based on research which isn't the same thing at all.

It was revealed last week that the number of NI numbers issued to new EU migrants is over three times higher than the official government figures for EU migrants. So all those stats need recalculating.

Also it is pretty likely that we will have to agree to the free movement of people

That is unknown - as are the "it's likely that" outcomes trotted out (in fairness on either side) - we don't know what will happen.

I haven't said it would

But when talking about the impact of immigration it is not addressed or if it is in little detial

Some estimate are around 800,000
othets are over 1 million how can that not have an impact

""Our primary data source, the British Labour Force Survey (LFS), is a quarterly representative
survey of about 60,000 households in the UK, or about 0.2% of the UK population."

The key is in the word "representative", the survey takes into account the overall make-up of the British population (we know this from the Census), and samples enough people of each group to make sure that the overall statistics reflect those in the population. The final statistics are calculated using sampling weights, that reflect the share of each group in the total population. Google "survey representative sampling" for an explanation. This is pretty standard, research on policy initiatives, health etc. almost always use surveys. It would be impossibly costly to survey the entire population, plus it's not necessary, as given a large enough sample the final statistics will be pretty much identical.

If we become like Switzerland or Norway then we will.

We are nothing like either of those countries and neither will we ever be so that's just entirely spurious.

If we don't we will probably struggle to get any good deals on exit.
Here we go again "probably" - you don't know - you choose to believe that because it suits your opinion, but actually, no-one knows, and everyone has an agenda.

So the leavers really need to think about it since it is always the argument they trot out, but are happy to just ignore the fact that in all likelihood this will not change post exit.

Stayers and leavers don't all trot out all the same arguments. Both camps should consider that we may or may not be in a position to exercise more control over the nature and volume of immigration from the EU if we leave - we cannot know in advance.

What does seem clear is that no option to make any such changes will exist if we remain - we will be obliged to accept unlimited numbers of EU nationals mostly without reference to their criminal or medical history or their prospects to make a net contribution or otherwise. It's a lovely idea in theory, but it fails to take account of the vast inequalities in incomes and service provisions across the EU.

Maybe

Do you not think illegal immigration impacts our society?

The figures that are reported do not reflect the real number of immigrants here so how can these reports on immigration and the impact on workforce, services etc be a true reflection

LaLa I didn't say the thesis was cast in stone. I simply said it was worth a read. Whatever fantasies you have about everyone living together in perfect harmony the facts are there. The more Islamic members a country holds the more trouble that country presents. What does Islam have to do with the EU? Well for one Cameron (for all his faults) was very reluctant to take masses of male Syrian "Refugees". Why? Because they present a huge risk to this country. Merkel, on the other hand, thought it would be a great idea to allow them to come to EU countries and "bullied" Cameron into accepting more than he wanted. We all know what problems have arisen since for those countries who welcomed them - despite the hostile stance from the "refugees". Once the "refugees" gain European status they are free to roam wherever they want to within the EU. You may live in LaLa land. I find the idea absolutely terrifying.

I have already stated that my mind was definitely in the OUT camp before I read that article so nope it didn't sway my thinking. The EU is nothig but a dictator. We will be better off out for many reasons - Not only because we will be more able to control our borders. But that has to be taken into consideration.

The bag of sweets scenario isn't as daft as it sounds. I don't mind sharing my sweets with anyone who shares back either. However, I don't want to share with anyone who has nothing to offer and furthermore who will bully to get their hands on my sweets.

If you are not up to date with what is happening with the countries who have welcomed the masses of "refugees" maybe you should do some homework before you cast your vote. There is a plethora of information re this not only from a Christian perspective. I simply posted that as it was much easier for most people to understand - and the facts are there

Missmoon - you clearly place a lot of faith in the research. I feel your entreaty to "google" certain aspects is a little patronising, frankly. You are entitled to believe in the validity of the research and the methods used, but that doesn't make them facts.

Do you trust Boris, Nigel, Michael G to make sure we have the women's rights, employment rights etc that we have now. Middle aged white men know what's best for us. That's always been a success.