To ask if you think we will stay or go?

[TheoriginalLEM]

sorry its the EU.

i don't know that much but my gut feeling is we should stay.

however i think we will leave because strength of feeling seems to lay with the leavers wheras i think stayers might beless likely to vote or be in the not that fussed camp.

Right I'm going further with the party analogy.

You turn up here weekend in, weekend out, with your two measly cans of Aldi own brand lager, give them to me as a gift and then proceed to drink me out of three bottles of Bombay Sapphire. You bring all your mates whether I invited them or not, they crash on my sofa, demand I make them breakfast, you borrow my stuff without asking and forget to give it back, and when I complain you say 'Well you are always welcome to crash and mine and use my stuff.'

NO OFFENCE OR ANYTHING, BUT YOU HAVE NOTHING I NEED OR WANT. YOUR CUPBOARDS ARE BARE WHICH IS WHY YOU ARE ALWAYS AT MINE.

i tell you what, how about you go home and say that you will host from now on? We'll turn up every weekend for the next 15 years with no booze and no food, you can buy it, we'll sleep in your spare room for weeks at a time, agree to pay you a tenner in rent but then ask to borrow 20 quid and not give it back? See how you like it?

But the aftermath is a good point. If we leave, will there even be an aftermath? We will immediately be better off - we will immediately have £350 MILLION pounds more money EVERY WEEK.

think lots of people want to vote out, but when it comes to it they will vote to stay in because better the devil you know.

Again, this is a risky line of thinking, because we don't know the Devil. We don't know what the EU commission are plotting in their mysterious, secret meetings. We don't know. We can't possibly make an informed decision, because it's all being kept from us. I don't even think Cameron can make an informed decision, because the "deal" he got the EU to strike isn't even legally binding, they could re-neg on it at any time.

Plus we've only been in the EU for one generation. People like me (40s) don't remember not being in the EU. But it's interesting to realise that the generation who DO remember life before the EU - people aged over 55 - are shown, in the polls, to be almost unanimously Leave voters.

Good point about the inevitable aftermath of extra money - we can also watch from the outside as the EU slowly self-destructs, we can offer encouragement for other countries who will also be wanting to leave, and we can look forward to a bright and independent future.

There is not a chance of us leaving. I think we'll stay.

The bookies rarely get it wrong and currently it's

Leave 3/1
Stay 2/9

Sounds like it'll be a victory for common sense

No - common sense, by any measure, would be to leave.

DO remember life before the EU - people aged over 55 - are shown, in the polls, to be almost unanimously Leave voters

Or perhaps they are more likely to be retired on a state pension and possibly a final salary pension scheme, have paid off their house or have a secure council tenancy so can place less weight on the economic arguments for staying.

LikeDylan some of us who are only just 50 can remember life pre joining the EEC, as the EU in the current form didn't exist til Lisbon. We live just outside Brussels, as dh has a job here, and we are voting to leave.

Naze the bookies got it wrong for the last General Election actually. I know that because my friend bet on a Tory majority and spent his winnings on a trip to New York.

To those of you thinking of voting Remain because you don't want Boris or Gove as PM, that's crazy. The only reason to vote Remain is because you want to remain in the Eu. If we vote Leave and Cameron resigns who knows who the Tories will choose. Maybe Teresa May?

How will leaving the EU take away the right to roam?

Mother, Dh was seconded there, that's why we are voting out. I don't think they will show how it really all works..like highlighting Juncker's penchant for lying, Merkel's ability to make unilateral decisions for the rest of the EU, their complete inability to sort the Greek crisis, or the migrant crisis for that matter.

Right, this thread has made me realise I really do want to vote out. I was teetering and actually I think I may have taken the coward's way out and not voted at all rather than voted in, but I need to grasp the nettle and just go for what i believe is the right thing and I'm going to make DH do the same because he can't make his mind up either.

I have my worries about it, but they aren't as bad as my worries about staying in. And I think it's worth braving any short term problems when you keep your eye on the long term benefits.

I'm Out.

For those of you who are voting either way to avoid having Boris or Gove as PM, you are all in for an almighty shock. There is a very good chance that Cameron will resign whatever the result - he has said he will definitely go before the next election - and the Conservative membership have the right to vote for their next leader. As the vast majority of Conservative grass-roots Tories are anti-EU (see this poll among others) they are likely to vote for Boris (with, I'd guess, Gove running as his deputy or, at the very least, expecting a big job once BJ was in No 10).

Boris Johnson was largely regarded as pro-EU or at least EU-neutral before the referendum was announced. His coming out as a Brexiteer was widely regarded as a way of securing the leadership whatever the result.

(Love the party analogies by the way - I'm leaning towards Brexit for left-wing reasons but am terrified of losing EU protection against the sort of policies that the Tories could bring in if let off the leash. This article by Paul Mason sums it up pretty well for me.)

God yes that Jeremy Vine thing on R2 was diabolical (though absolutely typical of the BBC's pro-EU propaganda - I have lost so much respect for the Beeb because of the EU referendum). I think the producer spent roughly 4 minutes rounding up reps from the 27 countries. All were London based, most had been here donkeys years, none were agricultural/minimum wage earners, t'was truly laughable, no wonder they only allowed one listener to air their views.

Whoever is the next Prime Minister might be in No.10 for up to ten years, depending on election results. The result of the Referendum is forever, or until the EU collapses under its own weight.

lalalonglegs: "I'm leaning towards Brexit for left-wing reasons but am terrified of losing EU protection against the sort of policies that the Tories could bring in if let off the leash"

I sort of understand this and the point of view in Paul Mason's article. But I think it underestimates the British people. If the Tories tried to bring in a load of extreme policies they would be straight out at the next General Election.

That's the beauty of democracy.

And that's why the EU is so scary. Because it's so undemocratic. What would happen if Merkel was replaced by somebody "nastier"? Italy and Spain and Portugual don't exactly have a good track record of standing up to fascists.

"But the aftermath is a good point. If we leave, will there even be an aftermath? We will immediately be better off - we will immediately have £350 MILLION pounds more money EVERY WEEK"

This is nonsense, it will take at least two years to negotiate our exit from the EU, possibly more. During this time we will have to continue paying into the EU budget. There will be a massive run on the pound and a recession (and we're not out of the previous downturn yet). We will probably have to continue paying in after Brexit if we want preferential treatment to the EU market (which we do), this is the case for Norway etc. On economic grounds, Brexit is madness. The only benefits relate to governance. But how much of a change in governance do you think we'll see relative to what we have now, to justify making everyone worse off?

I have to say that from looking on FB/talking to people, there is a fairly clear divide between Stay and Leave.

The leave camp is almost entirely made up of the hard of thinking 'let's make Britain great' again types, whereas the stay camp is much more made up of intelligent people whose opinions I would actually give a hint of credence to.

The level on debate on here is much higher actually, but I think ultimately i will vote Stay. Partly because DH works for a large multi national company who have already stated that they are very worried about the instability that leaving the EU would create.

But High the same argument was used to discredit people who said they were going to vote Tory in the last GE. They were all thick as mince little Englander racists apparently.

They still won though. That's the trouble with democracy, even the stupids get to vote.

Yeah, intelligent people that don't mind being dictated to

The leave camp is almost entirely made up of the hard of thinking 'let's make Britain great' again types, whereas the stay camp is much more made up of intelligent people whose opinions I would actually give a hint of credence to.

This is patently untrue - this thread alone offers ample evidence of the fact that neither side has a particular monopoly on 'intelligence'. Try to stick to the facts, rather than insulting and alienating people.

Of course the other party analogy is

I want a Referendum discussion party. I am going to invite, immediate family, and perhaps some friends.

About 10 - 15 people Max. My house can easily fit them in, I know and can afford food and drinks for that number. Good debate, arguing and a sweep steak at the end.

Dh says, some of his friends from work would like to come, and he hasnt hosted them for a while, so we invite them, another 7 people. One asks if he can bring his partner, we say YES, the more the merrier, they all want to bring partners, fine. One says, - how old are our dc, can he bring his along? We say fine. Suddenly numbers are growing, but its still manageable.

We can still fit people in, feed them etc. Then inadvertently mention it to neighbour who would like to come, cant say NO, they come and chat to other neighbours who also all want to come.

We are now worried about the whole thing getting out of control. How many numbers are coming now? Can we actually afford to feed this many people, let alone squeeze them all in the house? We don't personally know many of the partners or their DC or neighbours partners, what if it gets very heated? Will fights break out? We can't afford alcohol for everyone and we only have one Loo!

We decide to cancel the whole thing, because our house is too small and we do not have enough food, drink or facilities to accommodate so many people and we don't know exactly who will come.