How will you vote in the EU referendum-Leave or Stay?

[BritBrit]

How will you be voting? Can admin add a poll?

If they're not registered they're certainly not getting EU citizenship, and they're certainly not (legally) making it to the UK either, unless the UK decides to grant them asylum.

This is really not directly linked to Brexit

I've been away for a bit, and coming back here it's really interesting to see this thread confirm what the Remain campaign has been saying - "Leave" is comprehensively losing the economic argument, so they're trying to shift the discussion back to immigration.

Sure, when Britain's economy takes a huge hit after Brexit, it'll become a lot less attractive to immigrants. Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Sure, when Britain's economy takes a huge hit after Brexit, it'll become a lot less attractive to immigrants.

It's unlikely that the economy here will take a "huge hit", and the eurozone's economy isn't exactly thriving. The UK will still be attractive to immigrants as English is a popular language, and in a lot of cases, our wages will still be a lot higher than they'd receive in their countries of origin.

It's unlikely that the economy here will take a "huge hit"

I would say it's very likely in the short term, and quite likely in the medium term. In the long term, who knows, but in the long term we're all dead anyway.

Winterbiscuit

We can accept you assertion on the likely economic impact of BREXIT or we can go with the views of leading economists and academics from governments and international organisations across the world. It is quite clear that BREXIT will lead to short term economic chaos. Even Boris's own economic advisor admits it.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnsons-economic-adviser-warns-leaving-the-eu-is-likely-to-depress-the-economy-a6904976.html

Big business does tend to support the EU as it benefits from it. But even among those with specialist knowledge, the jury's out on the economy after Brexit.

Brexit could benefit UK economy, says £8bn fund manager

"One of Britain’s most influential fund managers has said a British withdrawal from the EU would have no long-term negative impact on the UK economy and could even benefit it in the short term."

"Neil Woodford, whose £8bn fund has large stakes in leading British companies such as GlaxoSmithKline, BT and BAE Systems, said much of the debate over British exit was “bogus”."

The Brexit campaign released its first economic forecasts — here are the key points

"In a 45-page dossier called "The Economy after Brexit" the group outlines its economic vision for a post-Brexit Britain Here are some of forecasts being provided by the group,

UK economic output would grow by 2%.
Competitiveness would rise by 5%.
Wage growth, in real disposable terms — up 1.5%.
Both inflation and interest rates would grow to be in the range of 2-3%.
Britain's current account deficit would improve to be just 1.5% of GDP.
Unemployment would go beyond current levels, falling a further 0.2%, or roughly 75,000 people.

The forecasts are based on the "Liverpool Economic Model" initially created in by Patrick Minford, the group's co-chair in the 1980s."

Wintergarden, but the IMF, OECD, Bank of England, Treasury, HSBC, PWC, IFS, LSE, Oxford Economics etc have published work that contradicts the points. Now springing would say that all of these organisations have vested interests, but I think we can discount so many bodies all misrepresenting their data as they find much the same thing and all have very different objectives.

The basis of the economists for Britain work is that we use WTO rules for trading the Centre for Economic Performance (which receives less than 5% of its funding from the EU) states:

" A further option is going it alone as a member of the World Trade Organization. This would give the UK more sovereignty at the price of less trade and a bigger fall in income, even if the UK were to abolish tariffs completely."

Winter: you are quoting from Brexit propaganda. Obviously that will support the BREXIT economic case. You need to look at independent sources.

the jury's out on the economy after Brexit.

It's really not... the overwhelming majority of professional economists and independent organisations have warned against the consequences.

Sure, you can find the odd economist or banker who disagrees. But they're the tiny minority. They're very much going against the tide, and against what is a very clear consensus.

And yet 200 economists signed a letter with dire warnings about what would happen to the economy if we didn't join the euro

Individuals or an organised group of people who wish to leave the EU give opinions based on appraisal of the facts does not mean their views are "propaganda", even though you don't agree with them.

The government's £9 million leaflet to all households telling us to "remain" is propaganda.

A minority opinion isn't necessarily an incorrect opinion.

Bill Clinton to join forces with Tony Blair to campaign to stay in EU

"Mr Clinton will come to Britain to help reiterate President Obama’s pro-EU message, sources believe.

Mr Blair is reported to be organising the preparations for the former president’s intervention, as he is reportedly set to make a number of further separate interventions himself."

The euro is a false analogy, because there is actually a consensus against Brexit, while there never was a consensus in favour of the euro.

For instance the Treasury published multiple reports recommending against adopting the euro (going against the political will of the then-government). But now the Treasury is saying Brexit would mean a very bad economic shock.

A minority opinion isn't necessarily an incorrect opinion.

this amounts to saying "the overwhelming majority of experts may be wrong" - and yes, in theory they may be wrong. But there is very little to support this possibility outside of wishful thinking, and the balance of likelihood is that all of them are not wrong.

Bill Clinton and Tony Blair? Wow, that's really going to convince all those Undecideds. Sounds like it's in the bag for Leave.

DrinksTooMuch

I think you have - because you are completely wrong about asylum seekers.

If an asylum claims asylum in any country and that claim is successful, then
under UK and international law, those refugees have a legal right to be reunited with their families who are abroad.

The European Court of Justice has also ruled on asylum seeker family reunification:

"The rulings provides a comprehensive picture showing that the processing of family reunification cases must be expeditious, flexible and efficient with special attention and care.

So a Turkish citizen can use the visa-free travel to come to one of the Schengen countries, can apply for and be granted asylum and can then ask to be reunited with any family they may have in the UK.

There is no minimum period of residence before they can apply for reunification with other family members living in the EU.

There are many minorities living in Turkey who are persecuted by the Turkish authorities who may have a valid claim to asylum and who may use the visa-free travel to enable them to make their claims.. The 12million Kurds, many of whom have relatives in the UK, are one of these groups.

Visa-free travel is just one of the ransoms tat Merkel is paying to Erdogan so she can human traffic migrants back to Turkey. Visa-free travel does not make us safer - quite the opposite.

It's really not... the overwhelming majority of professional economists

When were they polled? You can only nake that claim after youve polled the majority of professional economists - which you haven't and discounted those whose salaries are paid by EU funding or big Corpa vested inteerests.

and independent organisations have warned against the consequences.

Shall we test the 'independence' of these warnings?

Where are these non-EU funded, non-self-interested independent warnings?

I have just started an independent organisation. It says we would be much safer, stronger and better if we left the EU. The research was not funded by the EU or big Corporations. My organisation stands to gain zero if we Brexit and zero if we stay. My organisation is truly independent. recommends LEAVE

The euro is a false analogy, because there is actually a consensus against Brexit, while there never was a consensus in favour of the euro

Wrong.

If there were a consensus against Brexit the polls would not be showing the country equally split on the issue.

The Euro had huge support. There was hardly a voice to be heard against joining the Euro. Even after Major secured the Uk opt-out during the Maastricht negotiations, there were still calls for us to join it. It was only Gordon Brown's 5 tests that stopped us joining.

And all it would take is for a British PM to pick up a pen and make an application to join the Euro - and we wouldn't even get a vote on it.

Cameron has just announced that the EU is not a safe place, as he feels children are unsafe there as if it's Nazi Germany and is bring them here. He wants us to stay in an unsafe place?

Hover, I've asked Springing about that. I genuinely want to know where and how I'm goading, sneering etc.

I've reported it to HQ too. No response yet.

I did notice that your post was the only one featuring the word 'bully' to be deleted.

if there were a consensus against Brexit the polls would not be showing the country equally split on the issue.

The context of the discussion makes it clear I was referring to a consensus among experts. Not sure how you got I was claiming an anti-Brexit consensus among the entire British population

The Euro had huge support. There was hardly a voice to be heard against joining the Euro.

The very post you quote mentions the Treasury's repeated negative reports on joining the euro! The same Treasury who now says Brexit would have heavy economic costs...

Wow again! I've just noticed that Spring had a post deleted where I suggested that she might be a bully, yet she still goes on calling other people bullies! Talk about ironic!

Let's rephrase that so people get the truth instead of your spin.

I've just noticed that HOVERCRAFT had their post deleted

My posts don't get deleted because I play nicely.

Why can't you?

OnlyLovers

I'm still waiting to read any valid contribution you may have to this thread.

Try tackling the issue under discussion.

Springing, that's rather a rude comment. Plus, it's not for individual posters to dictate any tangents or side-issues the thread may discuss.

But anyway, please tell me which of my posts are goady, sneering etc. Still genuinely keen to know which ones you're perceiving as such, because throughout this thread I've had no intention of sneering or bullying or anything else personal or unpleasant; if you can highlight the problem ones for me I'll know what you're seeing as objectionable.

And, on either of my points here, do refer me to HQ if you feel they're problematic.

MNHQ - I'd like to report Spring's post above as sneering and bullying...

Reaches for the popcorn