Anyone putting any plans in place in case we leave?

[ThroughThickAndThin01]

I've just checked the EU referendum current polls and it's looking very close at the moment.

I wondered if anyone is putting plans on hold, or will change any plans they have if we leave?

Personally, I am wracking my brains to think of anything which will directly affect me. Although I wonder if there will economical turmoil and whether to plan for an interest rate rise (our very high mortgage). Which will in turn affect Dhs business.

If we remain, I'd imagine it's just business as usual.

Anyone have any thoughts?

I think it will be the fudge that they come up with. Think about it, it keeps UKIP going, everything remains the same for business, gives the euro skeptic tories something to complain about, throws the pro euros a bone. It suits a lot of vested interests.

It will still cause a lot of economic damage though, because people will stop investing in the UK whole our future is uncertain and any companies thinking of pulling out or reducing their presence in the UK will start the process on 24th June. They won't wait to see what happens, and they won't come back in 5 years if we've joined the EEA.

I could be looking for a new job if we leave, which would possibly entail either moving house, or a seriously brutal commute. We live in a part of the country where we get a lot for our money, housing wise, so to move would involve a serious drop in the kind of home we could afford. Or I may have to change career, and throw away years of work. And I'd see a lot of what I've worked for go out of the window.

And more to the point, that would be a highly unsatisfactory outcome from a democratic point of view

I agree. But you can't legislate against wishful thinking. And some of these people (I'm talking about the "flexcit" crowd) have a very longstanding intellectual commitment to euro-scepticism which deserves some respect (my dad is in this camp).

Anyway, I found it interesting to come across a leave voter who is happy to admit that there will be negative consequences and who is making plans for them.

Spudlet I also work in an industry that will be directly affected. There's been some contingency planning re moving capacity to the EU but senior management seem very confident (over confident?) of a remain vote.

Mistigri I don't know if any contingency plans have been made where I work, as I'm currently on mat leave. I think that the feeling at my place is also that it is likely that the vote will go in favour of remain, but what happens if there's a brexit vote I don't know. It would certainly make life interesting...!

It's at the back of my mind at the moment, but I certainly hope we vote to stay.

And some of these people (I'm talking about the "flexcit" crowd) have a very longstanding intellectual commitment to euro-scepticism which deserves some respect (my dad is in this camp).

And which way is your dad planning to vote? I'd have thought the EEA outcome would be the least satisfactory from their point of view because we would be to all intents and purposes still in the EU but with no further possibility of challenging or influencing it.

Anyway, I found it interesting to come across a leave voter who is happy to admit that there will be negative consequences and who is making plans for them.

What is interesting about that is that it is someone planning to vote leave who considers that the loss of their free movement rights would be negative for them. It's more common to find leave voters who accept there will be negative economic consequences but think it's a price worth paying for regaining total sovereignty and immigration control.

I can accept that from an academic point of view, but the moral problem I have with it is that the people who say it would be a price worth paying are usually wealthy people who will still be fine if others lose their jobs or if everyday items become more expensive. The leave voters who are less financially well-off are the ones who seem to believe that Brexit will solve everything, the economy will go from strength to strength and once we kick out all the immigrants there will be lots of good, well-paid jobs for British people. They're being fed a lie, and they're the ones who are really going to suffer.

And I still think it's really not on to vote leave safe in the knowledge that you can apply for an Irish passport to preserve your own freedoms. That's a total slap in the face to voters who live in the UK, who want to remain in the EU, whose jobs may be at risk if we leave, and who aren't eligible to apply for dual nationality. They'll be the ones dealing with the consequences of this man's selfish decision.

I am not well off at all. But I'd still like to leave the EU, for sovereignty and democracy. I also think the economy in the medium and long term will be better here if we leave the EU. I don't see "freedom of movement" as necessary, despite it having been given the positive labelling as a freedom. I felt more free when we weren't in the EU.

I think it's easier to say it's a price worth paying now, when it's all hypothetical. But when people are doing their shopping in Sainsburys and thinking, "why is everything so expensive?" and everyone knows someone who has lost their job, and nobody actually feels any more free than they did before (and lots of people like me feel a lot less free and are loudly and angrily saying "we told you so, you idiots!"), will it still seem like a good decision in retrospect?

I doubt it.

buttered my dad will vote leave. He's an old school small government liberal (ie not what an American would call a liberal) who is allergic to supra-national bodies. He's in his mid 80s, the referendum has precisely zero consequences for him. He isn't affected by migration (or at least not EU migration: he's pissed off at the nouveau riche City folks, mostly English, who have torn the heart out of his Norfolk village by buying second homes that are left empty most of the year) and he's not a racist, so he would accept a Norway model.

Spudlet it's interesting that corporate Britain seems more convinced than most observers that the result will be to remain. Will your sector be directly affected? My employer's UK production plants produce mainly for the EU as products sold into non-EU markets are mostly produced abroad anyway. So I'd be a bit nervous if I were doing a job directly related to manufacturing.

The Norway model wouldn't address any of the things he dislikes about the current situation though. That's what I find so bizarre about that point of view.

I agree with you buttered but at the same time, this group of mainly very longstanding, thoughtful eurosceptics does at least have a clear view of what they want and what they think the consequences will be. And they have no time at all for Boris and his bluster.

We're kind of drifting off topic again though. And it is true to say that most of this group are wealthy and old and, like my dad, are unlikely to personally suffer any negative consequences.

The rest of us do need to think about our own plans. Unlike the vast majority of EU migrants, I've been abroad long enough to remember a time before (full) free movement - so I think I am more conscious than many of what may be to come. (My own DH was refused a resident's card in 1997! And that was with £60k in a UK bank, a substantial amount in those days).

Mistigri I work for a charity so it would come down to where the trustees wanted to direct our work in the event of no longer being EU members. It would limit what we could achieve, not in terms of funding because we don't get any EU funds. But in terms of having a voice at the table.

The idea of a Norway model does not appeal. We'd end up implementing vast amounts of EU legislation anyway, but with no influence over its content. It would arguably be a far worse situation!

the people who say it would be a price worth paying are usually wealthy people who will still be fine

Less well off people are more likely to vote to leave the EU.

Lurked

A fudge. You mean a similar strategy to Osborne and his laughable dodgy document predicting the economy 14 years into the future.

Short term pain for long term gain. Okay so there may be economic uncertainty if we leave. So what. At least we'll be certain we won't end up being ruled by an unelected self interested corrupt regime that are sucking the life out of our country to fund it's euro federal state project. Free trade isn't their principle motive, power and control is. Their actions are tantamount to an economic, political and social invasion of our country. Vote in if you want but you'll never have a chance to vote out again. The EU won't permit it. Think carefully about sleepwalking into an idealistic EU future. Your children may live to regret it.

Bronze, the treasury's precictions have been repeated in independent research by the LSE, UCL, OECD, IMF, PWC , Oxford Economics, the IFS and a range of other institutaions. I don't think they will be that inocrrect.

The last post is hyperbole and appeals to emotion, it kinda shows you don't have an argument at all.

UK economy tanking (post Brexit) is what will most effectively remove migrant pull factor. People don't come here for the weather! So anyway to undermine the economy is good if immigration is a top concern (which it is for many).

Immigration is only a concern because of the way its played in the media as being responsible for all the ills of the country. Its not really an issue.

It's important to remember (especially on a thread that's about the consequences of a brexit and how individuals can protect themselves) that economic uncertainty tends to affect the less well-off far more than the wealthy.

People talking about short term pain and long term gain often mean pain for someone else and gain for themselves. I don't mean posters on here btw, as ordinary leave voters do indeed tend to be the less well off - but anyone who believes that the leadership of the Leave campaign expects to suffer any personal short term losses is very naive. I think with a few notable exceptions, they have their eyes firmly on the personal benefits of leaving, whether those benefits are political (Boris et al) or economic (eg Arron Banks who is probably drooling at the thought of workers losing what few rights they have).

Unfortunately, we are currently ruled by a minority elected self interested corrupt regime that are sucking the life out of our country, and which have changed the boundaries and will lose Scotland from the UK, thus ensuring that we are stuck with them forever.
Staying in the EU could just possibly keep Scotland in the UK, and gives the non-rich in this country some small level of protection.

I'm not casting my vote just to keep Scotland in the UK lemanitoba. If they want to become independent that's entirely up to the people in Scotland.

The idea of a Norway model does not appeal. We'd end up implementing vast amounts of EU legislation anyway, but with no influence over its content. It would arguably be a far worse situation.

Agreed. But if we do vote for Brexit, we (the voters) will not get a choice as to whether we join the EEA or leave the single market and go it alone. Our choices are "remain" or "leave".

Are the Brexit camp not even the slightest bit hesitant about voting "leave" when they will have no further say in the terms on which we leave? Are they not worried that we might end up with a symbolic victory for Brexit which doesn't address any if the issues they are concerned about (such as immigration or sovereignty) and which leaves us all a little worse off?

Less well off people are more likely to vote to leave the EU.

Fully expecting to get flamed for this, but... Less well off people are also likely to be less well-educated, and more likely to believe the fantasies and lies peddled by Farage and Boris. In short, they are more likely to vote for Brexit because they believe the economy will be stronger and they will enjoy the benefits, when all the evidence suggests that the complete opposite is true.

Most of them probably haven't even considered how they will make ends meet if they lose their job, or if their shopping gets more expensive, or if tax receipts are reduced and the government cuts benefits. And even if they have thought about those things, they dismiss is as "Project Fear" because they do not have the necessary knowledge and education to understand, for example, how currency markets work and how fluctuating exchange rates affect the cost of imports.

UK economy tanking (post Brexit) is what will most effectively remove migrant pull factor. People don't come here for the weather. So anyway to undermine the economy is good if immigration it a top concern (which it is for many).

In other words, let's sabotage our own economy and make the UK such a shit hole that no one else wants to come here!

Anybody else see the flaw in this plan?

Talk about cutting off one's nose to spite one's face...

I'm not casting my vote just to keep Scotland in the UK.

Well, no. But...

One of the arguments which is repeatedly made here is that if we have total national sovereignty over our own laws and our government does something we don't like, we can kick them out at the next election.

When people point out that the Conservatives want to privatise the NHS, or that they would most likely sign up to a worse version of TTIP, or that they could strip away our employment rights like paid leave and maternity rights, the answer is always that we can vote the Conservatives out.

Now... Quite apart from the fact that some of those things would be difficult - if not impossible - for a future government to reverse, if Scotland were to leave the UK, it would be extremely difficult to vote the Conservatives out, no matter what they did.

Doesn't that bother you at all?

"UK economy tanking (post Brexit) is what will most effectively remove migrant pull factor."

Well thats a great reason to put hundreds of thousands in penury. You don't like immigration for whatever reason ( please don't trot out NHS/Public services clap trap EU immigration doesn't weigh heavily on them) so you'll vote out to get rid of it? Great decision making there.

Non=stop project fear.

Nobody can say for certain what the economy will be like when we LEAVE.

Seems that little Australia has just negotiated itself a trade deal with little Singapore.

As far as I can see it doesn't involve giving the entire population of Australia the right to live in Singapore or vice versa.

Oh - I forgot - the EU is the only "trading organisation" in the world that forces its members to accommodate the migrating populations of its fellow members.

Of course the EU isn't a 'trading organisation after all, it's a step towards a European Superstate

I wish we were more like little Australia than being shackled to the deal corpse of the EU that prohibits the UK from making trade deals with countries like Singapore.