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Brexit

See all MNHQ comments on this thread

Anyone putting any plans in place in case we leave?

668 replies

ThroughThickAndThin01 · 09/04/2016 10:36

I've just checked the EU referendum current polls and it's looking very close at the moment.

I wondered if anyone is putting plans on hold, or will change any plans they have if we leave?

Personally, I am wracking my brains to think of anything which will directly affect me. Although I wonder if there will economical turmoil and whether to plan for an interest rate rise (our very high mortgage). Which will in turn affect Dhs business.

If we remain, I'd imagine it's just business as usual.

Anyone have any thoughts?

OP posts:
Mistigri · 05/05/2016 16:19

Sugarplum good luck with your daughter's application for dual nationality. I'm very sorry to hear about your mum :(

Even in the event of a vote to leave, then as long as your daughter has her dual nationality sorted by July 2018, I can't see that there would be any issue.

We have one dual national in the family now (my oldest, born in France) and will soon have two (her brother). It's important for us because both our teens will be attending uni in either France or Spain, so in the event of a Brexit they will need EU student status.

I need to start the (much more complicated) naturalisation procedure for myself but can't until we have both kids sorted out, which won't be before next month. If the referendum goes the right way I probably won't bother.

SugarPlumTree · 05/05/2016 16:32

Thank you both. DD isn't planning to live in the UK again if all goes to plan so good thing she hopefully does have dual nationality to fall back on potentially. Although I suspect DS will show no interest of studying abroad you never know so have decided to get them both sorted at the same time.

Will be glad when it's done, another thing sorted (fingers crossed).

butteredmuffin · 05/05/2016 17:06

Flowers re your mum as well.

Mistigri · 05/05/2016 17:43

SugarPlum don't forget that you can have citizenship without a passport- the passport acts as proof of nationality, but it's not essential.

My DD doesn't have a French passport (no need, as her UK passport has several years to run) but she has a piece of paper from the local court that confirms her French nationality, and we're getting her an ID card because it's a useful thing for a teenager to have.

SugarPlumTree · 05/05/2016 19:34

Thank you both. Just had a look and an ID card is the same price as passport so I think we'll take the plunge and get it done. website says 6 to 8 weeks and we'll have to get to Consulate first which will need to be half term really. Passport then potentially arrive when we're away but I'm sure we can work it out somehow.

BronzeBust · 06/05/2016 00:18

ThroughThickAndThin

*Personally, I am wracking my brains to think of anything which will directly affect me. Although I wonder if there will economical turmoil and whether to plan for an interest rate rise (our very high mortgage). Which will in turn affect Dhs business.

If we remain, I'd imagine it's just business as usual.

Anyone have any thoughts?*

Counties trade with others all the time without trade agreements.

The US, Canada, Australia etc. aren't going to give up their sovereignty or open their borders in order to have a free trade agreement with the EU, so why should we?

Back in the 60's when the common market was being devised, it made sense. However, moving forward to 2016, things are very different. Improvements in communications and indeed dirt cheap at that has meant it's cheap and easy to communicate with most places on the planet. Add into the mix the internet meaning the free flow of information on pretty much any conceivable idea or item is available to you in seconds. Add in easy and relatively inexpensive air travel both passenger and freight. The introduction of cheap as chips e-commenceNo chat rooms in 1973 yet today we can chat with anyone in the world about anything 24/7 for peanuts. So today we know much more about the goal of the EU than perhaps did those that voted for the common market. It' pretty clear they want to control all countries in the EU and form a superstate. I won't go into the theories behind this here but suffice to say in creating a free trading bloc, it is not necessary to take control of the countries within it so one must ask oneself, what is the real agenda and what's in it for us?

Today anyone can trade both services and products globally with nothing more than a computer, internet connection, email, IP phone, Amazon, TNT and PayPal. None of this was available in 1973. Commerce was much more restrictive and harder to conduct back then so a Common Market was a good idea. Today, the EU is pretty redundant.

In 1998 I started an internet business and had customers from all over the world. It bothered me not which country they lived and it bothered them not where my company was based. The EU didn't make a blind bit of difference to the performance of my company. What made my company possible was the internet and other 21st century developments, not the EU.

I still trade and unlike the doom and gloom merchants out there I don't believe my business will be any worse off either way because for every argument that favours an in vote, there will be a counter agreement and vice verse.

What is much more of a threat is that the UK is in such debt and getting worse, not helped by massive fees, fines and other costs of being in the EU. I can't help but wonder how things would have turned out if we had not joined the EU and not over the years paid in 500 billion pounds. That builds about 3 million homes. How ironic that we could have had more homes and a smaller population.

I would venture to say that if we were not members of the EU today and the referendum was a shall we join, the answer would be no. Who would vote for unlimited unchecked immigration, open borders, loss of sovereignty, a court that overrules ours, laws made by a regime that does not have our best interests at heart, a Euro army to stomp our streets, a restriction of who we can form trade agreements with and a monthly bill of some 500 million (about 3000 houses) pounds net? Not such a good proposition is it?

The EU bloc of counties has not grown in the last decade in contrast to the rest of the world. Also, our exports to the EU as a percentage of our output is decreasing. That makes sense if the EU is not keeping up with the rest of the world. After inflation, the EU is getting poorer.
There are only 3 major contributors to the EU of which we are one. There are 5 countries with a small net contribution and the rest take from the pot. The next 5 counties on the agenda to join are poor countries that will also be drawing from the EU pot. Turkey is already being given billions and it's not even a member yet. Where do you think that extra cash is going to come from? Yes, it'll come from the net contributors. Our taxes will need to rise or Osbourne will need to borrow even more money to pay the ever increasing cost of being a member of the EU. To add insult to injury, our percentage representation at the Euro table will get smaller and smaller as each new country joins. We have a measly 9.7% of the votes at the moment. It'll probably halve in time. How much of a puny voice is 5%. I think I'd rather have 100% say in the laws and the way our country is run. We can only achieve that if we vote out.

In summary, trade wise there's nothing in it provably one way or the other. Anyone claiming to be able to predict our circumstances in 2030 is in lala land or deluded or most likely both.

So as I am not in favour of subsidising the EU Eurocrats and their mega wastage and 20 and rising other EU states, unlimited unchecked immigration, open borders, loss of sovereignty, a court that overrules ours, laws made by a regime that does not have our best interests at heart, a Euro army to stomp our streets, a restriction of who we can form trade agreements with and a monthly bill of some 500 million, I will, on balance, be voting out.

BronzeBust · 06/05/2016 00:53

SugarPlumTree

If we vote out, I will host an independence day party.

If we vote in, I'll plan to get out of the EU while it is still possible.

What's everyone else's plans?

SugarPlumTree · 06/05/2016 06:52

So a remain vote has big implications for you Bronze . Where will you go in the event of a remain vote ?

Limer · 06/05/2016 07:25

Superb post Bronze

Very interesting to frame this vote in terms of "would we vote to join"? As you point out, the answer to that question would be a resounding NO. And if we were voting to join, the EU would be falling over itself to get us in, they'd be giving us a far better deal than the one we're already stuck with.

lurked101 · 06/05/2016 07:55

Pseudo intellectual rubbish bronze, so many of the facts are worngoing.
For example there are 10 net contributors to the EU.

mollie123 · 06/05/2016 08:01

bronze - excellent post - sums it up for so many of us who see beyond the scaremongering (which IS pseudo intellectual rubbish Hmm)

butteredmuffin · 06/05/2016 08:01

Bronzed: this thread is about contingency planning. Several people have made the "I'll be throwing an Independence Day party" joke and it wasn't funny the first time. We seem to be enjoying some temporary respite from Spring monopolising this thread (as she has allege others) with her pages and pages on why we should leave. That's not really what this thread is for.

butteredmuffin · 06/05/2016 08:02

(Sorry about the autocorrect!)

Mistigri · 06/05/2016 08:17

I think anyone interested in actually discussing what plans they are putting in place needs to just ignore weird off-topic cut'n'paste rants like the one above.

The idea of leaving the country if Remain wins is an interesting one. Where, outside the EU, can people with UK passports move easily if they are not in a skill-shortage occupation? (Or unless they hold dual nationality).

SugarPlum if your daughter has a clear claim to dual nationality, would it be easier for her to apply for a passport from her new country of residence? I don't think there is a hurry, as the earliest possible date for brexit would be 1st July 2018. Personally I might wait for the 23rd then, if the vote goes the wrong way, make the application.

Mistigri · 06/05/2016 08:26

As far as our plans are concerned, we have all the documentation ready now for DS's nationality claim. But we need to work out when to submit the application so that both DH and I are around when the court summons comes through - DS as a minor has to give formal consent in the presence of both parents and a court officer. After that it only takes about a week for his papers to be rubber stamped by the court, so I'm not worried about timing. (There won't be a post-referendum rush to beat, because most Britons living here don't qualify for this particular procedure.)

lurked101 · 06/05/2016 09:06

I find highly ironic that anyone who warns against leaving due to economic reasons and can back their opinion with a range of independent analysis is told off for scaremongering. At least I use the correctly and don't wilfully misrepresent all sorts of things.

Mistigri · 06/05/2016 09:25

The thing is lurked that it doesn't help if normal members allow threads to get derailed by cut'n'paste screeds that having nothing to do with the topic.

It just deters other members, like the one who was concerned about her company moving to Ireland in the event of a Brexit but who hasn't come back. It would have been interesting to know what sector she works in.

lurked101 · 06/05/2016 09:32

I tend not to cut and paste though, I'll respond to posts that are on the thread.

From speaking to the people I was out with last night, lots of pharma companies are considering moving to Ireland, as are financial sector firms that do lots of business in the euro zone, the worry about any deal not including services is pushing them.

I think really that a lot more people should be worried, the idea that everything will remain the same if we do leave is rather naive.

Mistigri · 06/05/2016 09:49

I don't disagree lurked but the more that threads get derailed, the less interesting the discussion (it just rehashes the old arguments and it's preaching to the converted).

There are some interesting things to talk about on the subject of how you can plan for a Leave vote, and they are largely independent of which way you intend to vote. I came across a British expat living in France the other day who firmly intends to vote "leave" - and who intends to take Irish nationality if a brexit does actually happen Grin.

Presumably business people who are in the Leave camp but employ lots of EU migrants are also putting plans in place. Plans are not just for the remain voters.

butteredmuffin · 06/05/2016 09:52

I came across a British expat living in France the other day who firmly intends to vote "leave" - and who intends to take Irish nationality if a brexit does actually happen.

Woah! Hypocrite! Weren't you tempted to punch them?

There was an Irish poster on this thread a while ago who basically said she thought you'd have to have a real nerve to vote for Brexit and then apply for an Irish passport to keep your free movement rights.

lurked101 · 06/05/2016 09:57

That is rather hypocritical! Almost like: " I'll allow my political beliefs to impact on others, but not on me."

butteredmuffin · 06/05/2016 09:59

I would have told that person exactly what I thought of them, in no uncertain terms. What a helmet.

Mistigri · 06/05/2016 10:02

Woah! Hypocrite! Weren't you tempted to punch them?

In fairness, there may be rational reasons to vote leave even if you believe that there may be negative consequences for you personally. I suspect this person would support a Norway-style (EFTA) relationship, which wouldn't affect free movement. It's not completely irrational or hypocritical for an expat to vote leave if he or she personally favours a Norway-style solution (it's just a bit naive, because there is no evidence that this is on the cards).

Fortunately for this person, the Irish authorities won't know which way he voted ;) There may be a risk that they change the eligibility criteria if they get too many applications though.

lurked101 · 06/05/2016 10:05

The Norway relationship is what we have, without the influence, this is the problem with the entire thing.

butteredmuffin · 06/05/2016 10:06

I still haven't come across anyone who can clearly articulate why they think we would be better off in the EEA/EFTA.

And more to the point, that would be a highly unsatisfactory outcome from a democratic point of view. If you add together all the remain voters who want us to remain a full member of the EU, and all the leave voters who want us to regain control of our borders, you've probably got at least 90% of voters who don't want an EFTA/EEA outcome.