Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse” 4

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Continuing the discussion about the impact of VAT on independent schools…

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/30/councils-england-insolvency-risk-send-costs

Yet Labour are intent on forcing as many out of independent schools as possible by bringing in VAT and just adding to the SEN crisis in state schools!

"It will take time, but as part of our Plan for Change we are thinking differently about what the Send system should look like, to spread opportunity, restore the confidence of families up and down the country and deliver the improvement they are crying out for.”

Translation: we have no plan and no clue. But with any luck we can think about this until 2029 when we are booted out of office and it's someone else's headache.

"Tackling the chaos that the Tories left in our Send system is a major priority for Bridget Phillipson, so we can give every child the opportunity to get a brilliant education.”

Come on then Bridget, spill the beans. I can't wait to hear how more inclusion and the broom cupboard 'breakout rooms' equals a "brilliant education".

Which one is that? I can't see it in the news.

It's not been announced yet, parents only told on Friday.

That's sad. GDST are big enough that they seemed safe.

@Araminta1003 - We may well spend a few years working elsewhere after DD finishes school. I have an EU passport, I'm bilingual in that language, and I think it would be fun to have a change!

Longer term, it depends on where DD chooses to settle, but we'd be likely to come back to retire. My family are quite scattered, and I understand the downsides of that. And I certainly won't be chased out of my own country by idiots!

The break in the social contract for me has changed how I relate to the UK state and to UK citizens I don't know. My willingness to contribute anything discretionary has gone.

Hard agree!

Dd isn't going to private senior. ee've been going to church to hedge our bets and she has a place at the outstanding church secondary.
Ds is at the private school and the fees have risen from £1600 a month to £2400 a month.

In ds' cohort (current year 10) the places at the church school did is going to were allocated to a final distance of circa 7.5km. (he was a bulge cohort that had lots of issues at reception level for places)

In dd's year which is a low birth rate cohort the places hace only gone to 3.8 km.

Historically places are usually allocated up to 7-8km

No reduction in PAN.

Anecdotally heard of families shocked they haven't got a place.

Nothing to see here though. It's had no impact on state places.

Now The Times has done an article focusing on SEND:

Parents of special needs children fight VAT on private school fees

www.thetimes.com/article/7a86e485-4908-41ed-95d8-0999c95fec56?shareToken=178e75dfe814bf0559574f9b73c84e2f

Screenshots

Final screenshots.

“In dd's year which is a low birth rate cohort the places hace only gone to 3.8 km.
Historically places are usually allocated up to 7-8km
No reduction in PAN.
Anecdotally heard of families shocked they haven't got a place.
Nothing to see here though. It's had no impact on state places.”

The DFE and Government are hiding behind the falling birth rate.

If we look at Ofsted Oustanding schools only, I bet they are more oversubscribed across the board, not just at Sixth Form level. I bet it is statistically significant.

Yes. I feel sad about it as well. Will have to vote bloody Tory now as well ffs.

But yeh let's force more SEN kids into an over burdened state sector!

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/30/councils-england-insolvency-risk-send-costs?CMP=oth_b-aplnews_d-5

https://www.ft.com/content/48dad263-36b2-491c-b017-f2e1eeee65e0

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/education/vat-private-school-fees-legal-challenges-high-court-b1219964.html

Another independent school announced closure just now and a further 15 added to watch list for after Easter! All whilst the legal challenge is unfolding.
25 closed since VAT on 1st Jan, another 15 potentially by Easter, 100s teachers lost jobs and 1000s kids forced out of schools.
Schools are approaching closure rate of 10 per month! That is completely unprecedented and show some form of outside factor.....wonder what that could be? 🤔
Yet Labour supporters will still cry that these schools are to blame! If that was the case then this would be the usual attrition rate.

What's the financial back story to this one? Was it robust pre-VAT?

Please explain your definition of "robust'
Was it like majority of indy schools with only 1 term's surplus?
Was it robust enough to withstand the triple whammy from Labour? Show me any organisation which could withstand that onslaught over a 3 month period?

We are now seeing closures at 8 x 'usual' rate

@KendricksGinwhat would explain this increased rate if not VAT?

It’s obvious a 20% tax on any sector would damage it. People are only ok with it as it targets children’s education.

It's not just VAT, it's business rates, minimum wage, increase to NI and another leap to TPS contributions all in quick succession. Add the cost of borrowing went up (not labours fault)

Lots of businesses are agile and can respond to change but not several changes all in one go (or quickly wnough)

It doesn't mean they would have folded if changes were more measured.

The Resolution Foundation are predicting that the increase in NI and the increase in minimum wage will cause a loss of 80,000 jobs.
Do you accuse those businesses of not being robust enough? Because independent schools are facing those 2 rises PLUS rise in business rates + falling rolls due to VAT etc.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/vat-private-schools-rachel-reeves-high-court-b1220078.html

It is quite disingenuous to claim you do not know what robust means. It means financially viable. What are the specifics of this school? The last one you posted about had a significant back story but you didn't post that.

You know that there are many schools that are withstanding VAT, which answers your 'show me any organisation' question.

The point has already mean made by many posters that a number of those schools were teetering on the edge and would most likely not have lasted that much longer even without VAT. Not saying that is okay at all but context is very important and is for the most part ignored on these threads.

Like you are ignoring the context of a triple whammy increase in costs you mean?
8 x usual number of s holiday closing points to a major external influence.