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Education

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Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse” 4

1000 replies

ICouldBeVioletSky · 25/03/2025 12:06

Continuing the discussion about the impact of VAT on independent schools…

OP posts:
Thread gallery
50
KendricksGin · 25/03/2025 20:39

Araminta1003 · 25/03/2025 20:29

@KendricksGin - the state sector isn’t different as schools are funded per pupil and in a falling birthdate, schools locally compete with each other over pupils. And to attract students they have to be desirable as well.

There are still artificial mechanisms in place in the state sector that act against the market deciding. In any case, if there is a mass exodus from private schools as many on here say there will be, that would tighten the supply/demand balance so if you were applying free market economics, that would be to the benefit of the state sector in terms of capacity utilisation.

PeachNewt · 25/03/2025 20:47

twistyizzy · 25/03/2025 14:28

Oh FYI for all those that say it is only "some" schools closing, this is an example of the fiscal impact of each school that closes:

90 employees, almost £3m of payroll costs.
So say £1m loss of PAYE to exchequer, + rates + spending in local economy

90 employees now redundant etc.

If you times that by the 23 already announced closures you are looking at billions of lost revenue in addition to everything else

Fiscally its a disaster, emotionally and pastorally its like a bereavement.

PeachNewt · 25/03/2025 20:55

mushroomshroom · 25/03/2025 15:36

Surely some of the impact on numbers has to be a result of falling birth rates?

"Education Policy Institute analysis suggests a 4.5 per cent fall in primary pupil numbers nationally between 2022-23 and 2027-28. London is predicted to face the biggest drop of 7.8 per cent, but the North East is close behind at 7.3 per cent."

I work in education and the declining numbers are quite shocking tbh.

Declining birth rates dont help children in school now though and aren't spread evenly so for sure in some areas like East Sussex there is a fair amount of space in secondary but go to Nottingham or Birmingham and you're more likely to get a full wheelbarrow of unicorn poo than a a place in Y7. I get that declining birth rates WILL have an effect they can't not but atm we arent there yet.

FairMindedMaiden · 25/03/2025 21:10

I’ve had a read through a lot of these threads. One thing is glaringly obvious, it’s pretty pointless discussing education with someone who thinks taxing education is a good idea. It seems insane to even have to explain why it isn’t.
Hopefully the high court rules in the children’s favour. The UK has sunk very low with this policy.

KendricksGin · 25/03/2025 21:16

FairMindedMaiden · 25/03/2025 21:10

I’ve had a read through a lot of these threads. One thing is glaringly obvious, it’s pretty pointless discussing education with someone who thinks taxing education is a good idea. It seems insane to even have to explain why it isn’t.
Hopefully the high court rules in the children’s favour. The UK has sunk very low with this policy.

I don't think there is anyone on this thread who thinks taxing education is a good idea so no need to explain why it isn't.

FairMindedMaiden · 25/03/2025 21:20

KendricksGin · 25/03/2025 21:16

I don't think there is anyone on this thread who thinks taxing education is a good idea so no need to explain why it isn't.

That’s lucky as I was planning on spending the rest of the evening explaining the concept of the Eurozone to my cat.

NeverDropYourMooncup · 26/03/2025 09:10

ICouldBeVioletSky · 25/03/2025 17:45

Since your scrolling finger is seemingly out of action I’m waiting for you to justify your earlier post.

In particular: “Please could you point out where in these posts I’ve demonstrated that my “emotion(s)” are “clouding rational thought”?
And please also provide an explanation as to how the points I made [refuting the suggestion that the only schools that are shutting are those already doomed to fail] are factually incorrect.”

All you’ve done so far is just chuck around meaningless phrases such as “Very basic economics”.

It might lead people to conclude it’s because none of your arguments has any legs - that can’t be the case….can it?

You're making this sound more like a personal attack/grievance thread than a predicting disaster one.

I don't think the 'historians' would be hugely interested in that, unless as a quick referral to how some of the wealthier posters on a mostly female social media site mimick well known online behaviour from Reddit circa 2012.

KendricksGin · 26/03/2025 09:43

NeverDropYourMooncup · 26/03/2025 09:10

You're making this sound more like a personal attack/grievance thread than a predicting disaster one.

I don't think the 'historians' would be hugely interested in that, unless as a quick referral to how some of the wealthier posters on a mostly female social media site mimick well known online behaviour from Reddit circa 2012.

Quite. Or even Margo Leadbetter circa 1975.

Araminta1003 · 26/03/2025 10:21

I saw that one @OhCrumbsWhereNow - the funniest part for me is that Ellie starts off with a posh Oxford accent and then as she goes on to the topic private schools, seems to shift into more SARF London. Well, well, well…

SabrinaThwaite · 26/03/2025 11:52

gldd · 26/03/2025 09:02

Another school closure announced - this one in Rachel Reeves' constituency

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp8vg4krezpo

Even a cursory glance at the accounts for this school shows that it’s been in trouble for a decade. Bailed out with £1.5 million in loans since 2020, has had significant operating losses in the last few years, it’s overdrawn by £650k and has no reserves. The trustees were looking at closure in 2021, it’s avoided compulsory strike off a couple of times and the auditors have stated for several years that it’s not a going concern.

This is not a school ‘operating on tight margins’, closure was inevitable.

FairMindedMaiden · 26/03/2025 16:31

OhCrumbsWhereNow · 26/03/2025 10:06

The idea is every child goes to their nearest one size fits all school with no choice for the parent or child, this is for reasons. The idea is that the council knows better than the parents what schooling suits their child, they know this because of reasons. Even if parents totally fund the education of their children with no state help, it must be made as difficult as possible …again because of reasons. The ‘reasons’ being fully centralised education makes it easier push your world view on those young impressionable minds, we don’t want any of those wrong thinking children do we? Especially if we want to give children the vote.
Why any parent supports this is beyond me.

OhCrumbsWhereNow · 26/03/2025 18:37

Dates have been set for a High Court challenge to Labour’s VAT on independent schools. A judicial review is being brought by seven families supported by the Independent Schools Council and represented by Kinglsey Napley. Filed before Christmas, multiple claims come on behalf of different groups and schools themselves…

High Court dates are from the 1st to 3rd of April. The claimants are arguing that the government is breaching the right to education as set out in the ECHR, and specifically that access is restricted to children with SEND, religious or philosophical education needs, and foreign nationals. Three judges are expected to hear this one – that’s rare…

Labour has hired not one, not two, but four KCs to defend its policy. Funnily enough, they all went to fee-paying schools:

  • Sarah Hannett KC went to Millfield public school in Somerset. Millfield is campaigning against the VAT change by arguing that bursaries and scholarships will be cut to the detriment of GB global sporting potential. It is increasing its fees by 15% this year.
  • Matrix Chambers’ Eleni Mitrophanous KC went to Channing School which has opposed the tax for years and raised fees by 13.9%
  • Jason Pobjoy KC attended Eltham College, which has raised its fees by 21.3% on last year.
  • James Eadie KC went to Radley school which has made representations to Labour against the tax and since hiked fees by 12.6%.

Seeing as the government continues to insist that fees will only rise by 10% as a result of its policy these lawyers will have a tough time if they attempt to cite their alma maters as anecdotal evidence. The battle is of the classroom and into the courtroom…

https://order-order.com/2025/03/26/every-kc-hired-by-labour-to-defend-its-vat-policy-went-to-private-school/?

Every KC Hired by Labour to Defend Its VAT Policy Went to Private School

Dates have been set for a High Court challenge to Labour's VAT on independent schools. A judicial review is being brought by seven families supported by

https://order-order.com/2025/03/26/every-kc-hired-by-labour-to-defend-its-vat-policy-went-to-private-school/

KendricksGin · 26/03/2025 18:45

FFS there is a lot more to focus on than where the KCs went to school. Signature Guido Fawkes 😂

OhCrumbsWhereNow · 26/03/2025 18:49

KendricksGin · 26/03/2025 18:45

FFS there is a lot more to focus on than where the KCs went to school. Signature Guido Fawkes 😂

Source is irrelevant unless you are disputing the facts?

Bit surprised Labour are so happy to shovel money into the pockets of people whose education they so despise... but then there are so few principles in the current cabinet.

KendricksGin · 26/03/2025 18:50

OhCrumbsWhereNow · 26/03/2025 18:49

Source is irrelevant unless you are disputing the facts?

Bit surprised Labour are so happy to shovel money into the pockets of people whose education they so despise... but then there are so few principles in the current cabinet.

Edited

Not disputing the facts.Just the focal point.

twistyizzy · 26/03/2025 18:56

OhCrumbsWhereNow · 26/03/2025 18:49

Source is irrelevant unless you are disputing the facts?

Bit surprised Labour are so happy to shovel money into the pockets of people whose education they so despise... but then there are so few principles in the current cabinet.

Edited

At cost of approx £1 million to the taxpayer

Barbadossunset · 26/03/2025 18:57

James Eadie KC went to Radley school which has made representations to Labour against the tax and since hiked fees by 12%

His children also went to private school - they’ve left now but I wonder if he’d be so keen to defend the government if he was still paying school fees.

twistyizzy · 26/03/2025 18:59

Also funny fact, government hired 4 x QCs to get Brexit through courts. Are Labour saying that taxing Education is as hard as Brexit? Or just cos they know their case is extremely weak and the challenge is being spearheaded by the KC who previously advised Labour not to do it (they paid for his advice and accepted it).

KendricksGin · 26/03/2025 19:01

OhCrumbsWhereNow · 26/03/2025 18:49

Source is irrelevant unless you are disputing the facts?

Bit surprised Labour are so happy to shovel money into the pockets of people whose education they so despise... but then there are so few principles in the current cabinet.

Edited

Given that over 70% of barristers are privately educated, why would it be so surprising that these ones are? There is plenty to pick holes in but I can't see why this is a big deal. A non-story and, as I said, signature Guido Fawkes.

KendricksGin · 26/03/2025 19:04

Barbadossunset · 26/03/2025 18:57

James Eadie KC went to Radley school which has made representations to Labour against the tax and since hiked fees by 12%

His children also went to private school - they’ve left now but I wonder if he’d be so keen to defend the government if he was still paying school fees.

I don't know what his rate is but Pannick's is reputably £10,000 per hour so in these spheres I don't think they are likely to be too worried about any 20% increase in school fees hit.

OhCrumbsWhereNow · 26/03/2025 19:09

KendricksGin · 26/03/2025 19:01

Given that over 70% of barristers are privately educated, why would it be so surprising that these ones are? There is plenty to pick holes in but I can't see why this is a big deal. A non-story and, as I said, signature Guido Fawkes.

Oh I merely found it mildly interesting watching government hypocrisy.

You'd have thought they might have made a point of selecting from the 30%.

Not sure I understand the issue with Guido... widely read by MPs in all parties in Westminster.

twistyizzy · 26/03/2025 19:11

OhCrumbsWhereNow · 26/03/2025 19:09

Oh I merely found it mildly interesting watching government hypocrisy.

You'd have thought they might have made a point of selecting from the 30%.

Not sure I understand the issue with Guido... widely read by MPs in all parties in Westminster.

Guido often has insider scoops before other journos.
Some posters will only accept The Graniad as they live in an echo chamber.

OhCrumbsWhereNow · 26/03/2025 19:15

twistyizzy · 26/03/2025 19:11

Guido often has insider scoops before other journos.
Some posters will only accept The Graniad as they live in an echo chamber.

Ah! That makes sense.

I've always thought it sensible to read a wide variety of sources.

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