Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse” 3

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Starting a third thread to discuss impact of VAT on private school fees, as the topic looks likely to run (and run). Though probably best to finish off the second thread before posting here, thx.

No, the rate of kids leaving independent schools is exceeding the % forecasted by government so net outcome is more and more looking like either net £0 OR an actual cost to the taxpayer

Do we actually have any accurate figures for the number of children leaving private schools and joining the state sector?

But of course you can still access it, if you can afford it. Just as you could if you could afford it before VAT was added - most people couldn't.

You cut your coat to suit your cloth.

Your child has access to universal state education. You can make alternative arrangements if you can fund them.

By accurate you mean?
Labour have refused to track the numbers so only source is ISC + anecdotal from LAs + parents.
The figures from ISC are clear

So of government levied a 20% tax on your mortgage each year you could afford that?
Why is it so hard to understand that everyone has a budget + tipping point?

Incidentally, The Royal School has been in financial difficulties for the past decade. It was finding it hard to attract pupils- presumably because of its precarious financial situation. It is not closing because of VAT.

Are there figures on this? Would be interested to see as I know it's not the case in my area.
Proving that this was the plan all along, rather than a side effect of raising money via VAT is going to be the issue.

That's the entire point. That 20% is too sudden and high a jump and so it immediately becomes inaccessible to many many many more, in a very short space of time. Enough to collapse schools, and put extra pressure on a state sector ill equipped to deal with the fallout.

A lower tax, or ramping up over a longer period would have been more tolerated but 20% immediately put on what is a family's largest outgoing (larger than housing costs) is just too prohibitive. I mean people cry when their mortgages go up 2%. No one, and I mean NO one can tolerate or absorb a 20% hike to their mortgage. So the system will collapse.

I feel exactly the same. Also from former colony. My DC's private school has shut.

Yes of course there are figures but not from DfE cos Labour have refused to gather data on the impact

Each Council provides the numbers attending each of their schools which us available on the government website, so any change could be put together if anyone wanted to.

Presumably any parents finding their child refused a state school place having had to leave private have the skills and money to challenge that legally.

So the overall numbers for each LA will give an indication of any significant change.

Of course, the parents might not find the place acceptable. That is different from not being offered a place.

Of course the ISC and anecdotal evidence have a certain bias!

Do you know where I can find the figures? Google is not helping me!

We have concrete evidence of all the councils who have said 0 places therefore children are on waiting lists yes. The fact Labour have refused to gather that data centrally says it all.

Maybe don't take Malory Towers as a documentary?

Also worth remembering the 20% is often for more than one child so really is quite a jump.

We have also been notified by one of the schools that my DC attend to expect up to a further 6% on fees from September.

Very glad we only have a few years left.

@twistyizzy "The figures from ISC are clear"

Could you provide a link, please?

and you will only be eligible for the 2 bed flat if you have been voicing the correct opinions…

@RedRidingGood "My DC's private school has shut."

Because of VAT?

Already 10000 fewer started in September and LAs say about 5000 asked for places in year in first term. Also about 3000 from ISC schools handed their notice in the first term, bearing in mind most schools require 1 term's notice.

That is significantly more than Labour's initial assumption of 3000 in academic year 24/25 and really shows the impact the policy is having. Simply put, most parents who use independent schools are uber wealthy elites, they are usually average working parents scrimping together for fees. A 20% tax pushes them over the edge of affordability.

So the parents involved are taking legal action because their children are being denied an education?

Or the parents are somehow funding the private place until/unless the get an 'acceptable ' place?

When DD was out of education (schools coping with the return after lockdown) and I didn't get a response I involved our MP. DD had a place within days, a 'return to school' plan within the week, and was in school full time within 3 weeks.

She had support needs that resulted in an EHCP within 6 months. So wasn't a 'straightforward' high achiever who could easily be slotted in.

Hmmmm, can anyone think of a reason why Labour is refusing to collect the data…?

I mean, if this is going to be the glorious fundraising, state school-improving, breakfast-providing triumph that we’ve all been promised, then surely Bridget and Rachel will be keen to hoist the cold hard evidence up a giant flagpole/shove it down the haters’ throats?

Unless….unless….

🤔

Unless it is a non issue.

Maybe the vast majority of families manage to keep their children in private education.

Maybe 99% of those who can't afford it have been offered a school place. It might not, of course, be a school they like. But they have been offered a place.

I think the system will collapse at prep level precisely because those who would always have gone private at secondary level, now need to save extra cash to afford the more expensive secondary level and some. The exception may be grammar areas where people still believe a prep may prepare for state grammar.

Some of the secondaries are merging with preps to guarantee some sort of future pupil flow, but the cynic in me says the clever ones are doing clever mergers so if need be they can commercialise the lands/properties eventually from the preps, to prop up the secondaries too, should it come to that. I also wonder about large groups of private schools optimising VAT input/output via optimised capex expenditure across the whole group.

Labour are essentially forcing thousands of charitable schools to become ruthless businesses to survive. It’s very counter-intuitive the whole thing. I do think they will have to become more productive though. There is really no benefit to being a charity anymore unless you are the kind of school
people make large charitable donations to, either whilst alive or in their wills.

Except see my stats. They aren't and thats why 18 have announced closures since 1st Jan which is 3 x 'average' number.
20% of parents are on some form of fee assistance. These are the ones who will be hit hardest, quickest

Thanks for these figures. Where have you sourced them?