Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse” 3

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Starting a third thread to discuss impact of VAT on private school fees, as the topic looks likely to run (and run). Though probably best to finish off the second thread before posting here, thx.

Over half are charities ie not for profit.
This isn't a tax on schools, it is a tax on parents and kids. It is taxing teachers out of their jobs etc.
It is costing taxpayer £100s of £1000s for the 4 x KCs Labour have hired to defend it in court.
It makes zero fiscal sense to spend nearly as much fighting it as it will probably bring in.

Given redirected budgets, general job losses, and no new jobs being created (thanks to a shrinking economy) I think we can expect more of the tax purse going towards unemployment benefits.

Not state schools, gosh they are bottom of the priority list at this point and won't see a penny of VAT (if any is ever made).

Absolutely but this is all ideological anyway and was needed as a red herring to hide the reality that any party elected this time would have to impose painful tax hikes and make emotive benefit cuts. Banging on about VAT on private school fees worked to convince people that we could somehow resolve our crisis in public funding by imposing taxes that wouldn't impact the masses. It was all smoke and mirrors as even if it was a genuine tax raising measure, it never should have enjoyed the prominence it received during the election process when you think of all the measures they have actually taken since they've been elected.

I truly believe that people are beginning to understand that they have been had and this was never what we should have been going after in the first place. It's a ridiculous waste of resource, money and energy when we have far bigger fish to fry.

I believe St Anselms, Derbyshire (Prep school) is closing at end of academic year.

www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce8vp0604q7o

Do we have any accounts of private schools
closing which had not been recording falling rolls for some years?

That’s so sad about St Anselms - I used to live not far from there and it was a very popular school.

@BarbadossunsetNot popular enough to avoid falling rolls….

The Village prep in Hampstead is also closing this summer. That makes it the third prep in the area within a year.

The Village Prep is half full, and has had falling rolls for years.

Do you mean to sounds so gleeful in these recent posts or is it inadvertent?

But obviously these will be the first wave to go!

@ICouldBeVioletSkyNot sure how straight statement of fact can be considered gleeful. But no, I’m not gleeful. I’m not sure how else you want me to put it. I am just correcting the impression given by other posters that these schools are closing directly because of the imposition of VAT.

They can have low rolls and have struggled AND have been tipped over the edge to closure by VAT, NI increase and business rates.

In fact it's rather disingenuous to pretend that those things contradict each other.

But it IS due to VAT. Maybe there were other contributing factors, but the increased rate of school closures is directly attributable to VAT.

it’s a bit like losing your home following the Truss interest rate hike and being told that you cannot blame Truss because your finances were already strained due to covid loss of earnings, cost of living, etc.

@strawberrybubblegumit is significantly more disingenuous to ignore all contributing factors EXCEPT VAT. Which some posters are doing. Obviously the extra costs would not have helped, but a half full school cannot survive.

The difference between net closures of private schools this year compared to every other year tell a very clear story.

Exactly. These schools hadn’t needed to announce their closure, but now they have. After the introduction of VAT.

All good evidence for the court case in April. Direct Governmental harmful interference CAUSING closure and harm to children and teachers.

As I said, the additional costs will obviously not have helped. But all the schools
mentioned were facing closure anyway. That’s why I asked whether there were any schools saying that VAT was the only or the main reason for failure.

I think the main indicator would be full rolls - is there any school with full or close to full rolls which have announced closure - ie that there was as much need and demand for the school as there ever had been but increased financial costs (NI, VAT) on their own had been enough to push it towards closure?

Do some pp want schools to close?

If the court case fails, I will be interested to see if there is a move towards private schools catering for 11-16.

Sixth forms will be obvious things to go if a large percentage of parents decamp to state.

I also think there will be a bigger move towards combining several schools into one with loss of single sex provision and bigger catchments. Sell off the other sites to bolster the coffers on one.

Some preps may also decide to continue on to 16 rather than stopping in Y8.

But all the schools mentioned were facing closure anyway.

Not necessarily. Many schools (and other businesses) muddle along in limbo for years.

That’s why I asked whether there were any schools saying that VAT was the only or the main reason for failure.

Well they would, wouldn't they?

It is a question of causation and proving it. Let’s say a school was ticking over with 50 entrances every year, but suddenly this year, there were far fewer applications, the likelihood is it was the 20 per cent penalty on the school fees that did it. If there are numerous school closing at a higher percentage than normal over and above what accounts for a falling birth rate locally, they should hopefully be able to show causation and discrimination by the Government.

@user149799568But they don’t. All the schools mentioned list several reasons for their closure, including VAT. It’s posters on here who focus on VAT only.