Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse” 3

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Starting a third thread to discuss impact of VAT on private school fees, as the topic looks likely to run (and run). Though probably best to finish off the second thread before posting here, thx.

When you see how many parents have to go to tribunal - where over 90% of appeals are successful - removing the right to appeal is a nightmare.

Speaking to parents going through this this is pretty much accepted knowledge.

It's so they can string it out as you say,

The proposal is to remove this? Then what happens at the initial stage are there more approvals or same low rate?

Presumably same low rate of approvals and without an appeal you’re stuck without any provision.

I did read an earlier suggested plan of Labour to the effect of making more of a distinction between the highest needs SEN children (presumably those with complex multiple physical and/or learning disabilities) and less complex needs (everyone else no doubt including autism/ADHD/EBSA). You can guess how much support will be given to the second group.

“there is no way out of this without increasing general taxation significantly for all of us.”

I’’m an additional rate taxpayer and agree with this, though I accept what @Araminta1003 says that this will drive a number of high earners to leave for continental Europe/Dubai etc. More efficient spending/cutting public service waste just isn’t going to get us anywhere near what is needed. Everyone bar the very least well off needs to pay more taxes.

But as above, Labour are too dishonest and too cowardly to tackle this properly so its Operation Rearrange The Deckchairs all round. If the traditionally “high tax, support public services party” is making such dismal efforts to improve things then we are royally stuffed.

@CatkinToadflax so sorry to read of your experiences, what a disgrace of a system. 💐

The other elephant in the room is: what is going to happen to this generation of failed children with SEND in 5/10/15+ years when they grow up? How likely are they to become fully functioning/contributing members of society? And how much is it going to cost the public purse to support them then? 😞

The depressing thing is also that many of us have child with levels of SEN that should be easy to manage in mainstream.

It is already the case that resources are so stretched that their needs are bottom of pile - those who aren't reaching potential but are not failing, those who are well behaved and fly under the radar because they're not disrupting classes, those who are quietly burning out and struggling but not enough to be a priority.

Many parents of these children are using their own resources to support - private counselling, private tutoring, providing tech and software, parents providing scaffolding and extra help. And where they can manage it, parents seeking out private schools with smaller classes where children can function better and get some extra support.

Not only do the government plan to abandon these kids, but they've also pulled the rug from the possibility of stretching to those small private schools.

All so that their supporters can feel they've delivered a good kicking to Etonians and parents of "bright children in good state schools" can describe those of us concerned by this as "selfish and self interested".

Presumably same low rate of approvals and without an appeal you’re stuck without any provision.

If this is the case then it's a huge issue.

I noted this news article:
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/10/no-exodus-to-state-sector-after-vat-added-to-private-school-fees-say-english-councils

However, this is obviously a single news outlet with a particular political positioning. Does anyone have links to articles from other news sources covering the same data but from a different political starting point?

This is a non-story because most parents considering independent will also apply for state as insurance. It's just a sensible precaution.
The indication will come in Sept 25: number of rejected state places + number of starts in independent schools Vs Sept 23 + Sept 24. Sept 24 already saw 10K fewer starts in independent schools than Sept 23.

There’s a post on this under education I think - not sure how to link.

in summary, it is far too early to know what a ~9% increase in applications from private school students means. People intending to go private (either from private primaries or those intending to make a switch to private in secondary) have always applied for places in state just in case. The real impact will only be known once we see how many accept those places and how much of a drop private schools see in enrolment.

Thanks! I hadn’t fully appreciated the ‘double application’ impact on the data at this point.

There's another recent thread with 3 parents who had scholarship offers from independents and were waiting to see if they got a sought after state comprehensive. They were all successful last Monday.

Two of the three have now accepted the state place over the indie plus scholarship, and the third was mulling their decision.

That is just one mumsnet thread. If that is happening all over, we won't know the outcome until September.

Loads of parents apply for both independent and state, the question is for what percentage is the independent place now the back up rather than vice versa.

That’s a very poor article not to mention that also, the overall London state school pupil population is dropping at primary and secondary levels since Covid due to the massive costs of renting or buying housing, shortage of social housing, etc etc so families are being forced to move somewhere else more affordable. More inequality…
So if there is a base level of falling pupil numbers and undersubscription in some state schools in the more expensive boroughs, then will this not mask the effect of pupils being forced out of private schools?

Where are the statistics for pupils leaving private schools and and for new pupils joining private schools?
Presumably the government also collects these?

another two preps closing, and a third school making redundancies

https://www.ilfordrecorder.co.uk/news/24991556.ursuline-prep-school-coventry-road-ilford-facing-closure/

https://www.schoolmanagementplus.com/bursars-finance/falcons-school-inspired-education-considers-closure-of-london-prep/

https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/24998573.oxford-private-school-set-make-redundancies-due-budget/

“Most private schools cutting staff after Labour’s VAT hit”

www.thetimes.com/article/a61e34c2-2412-467b-9ebe-d572c552f2c7?shareToken=3c69963a273806c1a6c8968ea104b8d2

Rest of article screenshots, apols if they don’t all come out in the right order.

“We are considering reducing bursaries but are waiting a further year before doing so. We have moved to a cash donation to London Academy of Excellence Tottenham from a secondment model. This will save us £250,000 to £300,000 eventually, taking our annual donation from £950,000 to around £720,000.”

From the same article (Highgate).

There are some private schools making substantial donations to state schools.

I wish this Government had thought better about this.
What they should have done is stipulated that 20 per cent off eg all endowment income/charitable donation must be donated back to a state school pool to be used exclusively for state schools. Rather than VAT on school fees. That way they would have captured the wills/inheritances/donation loophole and actually helped the state sector and not penalised parents who are already squeezed.

@Lebr1But not because of VAT. All of these schools have been in financial difficulties for some time.

@CurlewKate - loads of private schools are going bust.

There is a massive buying opportunity for overseas type education private equity, in theory. Buy up some preps in good locations, turn them into cheaply run selective “grammar” schools keeping trouble makers out. It is what many parents want.

And the triple whammy of NI increase, business rate increase + VAT has tipped them over the edge.
The fact indy schools are closing at a rate this academic year of 3 x the 'average' year, points to external factors. Each school closing = teachers + staff losing their jobs as well as kids uprooted from schools in which they were settled.
The whole thing is a shit show for zero fiscal gain.

Of course it is a shit show @twistyizzy

What I read into the statement from Highgate is that they spend shed loads on local state schools with no recognition because it was via secondments. And so they are just going to donate hard cash now so nobody can challenge their charitable donation. It’s the fact that many of the elite
private schools have actually contributed massively during the Tory years to state education but Labour have ZERO respect of this and are entirely clueless.
They are throwing the non elite private schools under the bus for no gain as well. Small private schools can’t contribute massively, many are not too different from state schools.

I have to agree. The facilities race in these schools was, imo, one of the most POINTLESS exercises. For those who did it in a considered and necessary manner, great.

But so many just wasted money! I know 1 school spent 1 million pounds on a focault pendulum in their new science centre. I can think of 10 areas that money could be better spent on. And thus fees rose.

Good teaching, good experiences and good behaviour for me are the core tenets of school and ime too many took their eye off the ball in this area and hid behind "we are all round" or "look, our new shiny xxx building".

Interesting that some schools at least are diverting bursary funds towards scholarships.

I’d assumed the fund pool was either being focused on boosting bursaries for existing pupils (which I’m sure it is in many places), or just being cut generally to try to minimise fee rises across the board.

But it may be that the terms of endowments wouldn’t allow this, and it does make sense to attract the brightest candidates to ensure academic standards stay high in selective schools.

Thing is, the government and supporters of this policy are still parroting "£1.8 billion moolah bonanza by ending nasty nasty tax breaks on posh people" as in the article.

Yet supporters also say "schools didn't have to pass on the full 20%, they could have reduced their fees if they weren't so greedy" (indeed, it seems like many schools have ameliorated the rises to some extent) - but if so, that rather throws off the calculation of "£1.8 billion moolah bonanza" doesn't it?

And then this "£1.8 billion moolah bonanza" depends also on a negligible number of people switching to state or choosing not to start at private at all, so supporters have to insist that this is totally not happening and that nobody changes their behaviour in response to finances. Because 20% is not significant, you see.

And anyway that even if the allowed 3.1415926 children move to state, it'll be zero cost to the taxpayer compared to the "£1.8 billion moolah bonanza" because 93% of pupils are already state educated.

But then supporters will also say that it'll do wonders for the state sector if plenty of former private-school pupils move in, because there will be loads more funding from the taxpayer. And something to do with the amazing contribution of their extended families who are invested in their children's education. Because suddenly 7% is of great significance.

Have heard of a small, alternative, private primary closing in London due to VAT, at the end of the academic year. Exactly what posters have been warning of on this thread.

Parents say that this school’s very small class sizes have been transformative for kids with SEND; anxiety, ADHD. Parents are now facing difficulties finding suitable places in same borough. Locally state primaries are closing, due to falling roll numbers (likely due to high housing costs causing families to move out of the centre) meaning class sizes are rising and increased travel to remaining primaries. Which negatively affects all kids who need primary education.

But what’s the alternative for the kids with SEND? Not as simple as just getting a place at the next available state or private primary because of these DC need small classes at small schools. Which (if private) were already operating on tight margins so VAT is quickly killing them off.

If suitable options have to be found for more kids with SEND this puts more strain on the broken SEND system. They will go through however many failed placements in mainstream, which will unnecessarily damage a lot of these kids. then their parents will slog through the EHCP process if they can, then maybe eventually if the parents are lucky, their kids will be given a placement in a specialist state school with a high adult-child ratio and small groups.

The high staff ratio and low pupil numbers and specialist working at specialist schools is paid for entirely by taxpayers. And will greater pressure on these schools LAs might be more likely having to send kids to places out of area, so paying for transport too as the schools might not be local and these kids can’t just hop on a bike each morning.

That would be a hugely more expensive way to educate than paying for a small mainstream private school would be, which is covered by the parents. it’s just an illustration of exactly what we said this punitive policy would achieve.

That is- More damage to kids with SEND, more unmet SEND need in the state classroom, in bigger classes, which doesn’t help any of those kids learn. More stress to their parents, more stress to the teachers trying to cope with unmet needs in mainstream state schools, and ultimately more cost to everyone including taxpayer.

Or, family earnings and therefore tax contributions may need to tank in order for an adult to be at home with SEND DC while they learn at home with a package funded by the local authority. At least some of which disruption and expense could have been avoided had the VAT policy not been applied and if smaller, not profitable private schools been able to continue to run. And if less pressure would be put on the state system by higher needs DC who are currently being funded only by their families.

Where is the regularly updated government data on how many private schools are closing or may close?

What impact assessment is being done on the disproportionate impact of the VAT policy on kids with SEND- in private and state schools?

That’s a shame @EHCPerhaps

Labour’s policies have wiped out headroom so they are of course now onto welfare cuts and CS / PS cuts.

What’s the point if all this just lowers funding and more people are hit by their poor policies