The WhatsApp message leak

[Mycatsgoldtooth]

So, we’ve had the FBI saying it was a lab leak, the leaked messages showing many of the restrictions were for show, stats on the reality of masks being mostly useless unless N95s. Where are all the people that were so upset about anyone saying anything against the government now.

It’s almost as if no one care where the virus came from and how the government reacted. If I’d spent years being terrified and washing my shopping I’d be really pissed off.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/03/01/untruth-untruth-peddled-justify-great-lockdown-disaster/

@BashirWithTheGoodBeard

Disagree. I think it could happen. It would be naive to think it could never happen.

Ok, I am in a knot now - because I’m confused as to what you are saying there!

I’m not saying the Telegraph shouldn’t exist or that information should be censored - unless it’s harmful or breaks a code of practice. I’m saying that the political motivation of the source MUST be taken into consideration.

What exactly did you mean when you disagreed with my post at 10.21 then, and said what I'd written wasn't giving you any hope that this wasn't just another bog standard misinformation thread?

Because what that post said was that the DTs curation of the messages was obviously selective and political, which you agree with and which is the motivation you talk about here. So it's not that. Then it also said that the sources nonetheless are an important and significant resource. So it would have to be that. Yet your subsequent posts suggest otherwise?

As for naivety, you being able to imagine something does not make it a realistic possibility. I accept that you're worried and I wish you weren't, but nobody has to accord anything like the same importance as you do to what are now fringe political parties. It remains the case that if you want to talk about right wingers and lockdown in the English context, the most important right wingers are the ones who did it and whose messages we now get the joy of reading.

@JenniferBooth I took the didn't do enough for healthy and wealthy statement to mean that they would have preferred more out working in factories etc. I can't remember the DT clamouring about how certain industries were more at risk of staff falling ill from covid (meat factories etc) and could do with better protections to help them. Not read whole thread so apologies if been covered already.

Lots of those people will have been doing things like attending family funerals and saying last goodbyes to elderly relatives. They were talking about how best to weaponise the Kent variant, ffs. These things are appalling

YY Its absolutely disgusting @BashirWithTheGoodBeard Also i saw photos put up on Twitter of the slop they were served while in quarantine which was supposed to pass for food and there were several cases of food poisoning.

That's an interesting point. The idea that the peasants should've been out doing more while the protected sat at home and then we wouldn't have quite such a big bill to pay now. Batshit, obviously, but I could see the Telegraph going for it. Whilst also complaining about civil service woke from homers, probably.

To say nothing of the sexual harassment. Which again was absolutely nailed on inevitably going to happen, and that was obvious if you thought about it at all. Women confined to specific premises, legally forbidden to go out, male security guards in positions of power. All something to laugh about though, apparently.

Like your Guardian link.

Going back to the messages, what is clearly shown is it was not the threat they made it out to be. I'm astonished that people aren't taking that seriously.

and of course all messages can't be released - they have to defend their case on what's legally in the public interest, not any other messages. It's not meant to be a jolly into the Health Secretary's messages. It's done to show what happened in a specific situation.

To be honest I would rather the whistleblowing hadn't come from oakshott and Telegraph as I am suspicious of her/their motives- but anyone who is trying to defend the indefensible messages being sent needs to give their heads a wobble. I suspect she/they are fully aware the Tory's likely on their way out and are maybe hoping to transfer some support to the Reform party. She also makes her money by being in the limelight.

I'm sorry, I didn't keep receipts, but anti lockdowners, from all walks of life, made this point from the start - the laptop classes expecting others to do their jobs to enable them to stay home.

But the messages exist, regardless of who told you about them.

just as the parties happened, regardless of who broke the story.

I think it's fair enough to wish it wasn't the Telegraph who have these. Personally, I begrudge them the clicks and attention.

But its an inevitable consequence of the English lockdown having been a right wing one. The prospect of Hancock getting, say, Ash Sarkar in as a ghostwriter is hilarious, but obviously impossible.

I would also rather it wasnt the Telegraph

But at the Guardian.............www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/11/matt-hancocks-leaked-messages-are-being-used-to-rewrite-history

I think the lack of any messages mentioning anything about the situation in hospitals or the death toll esp early 2021, or longer term implications is telling. I don't think it means there weren't any messages. I think it's to skew a particular narrative.

The blackmailing over withholding funds for constituencies is horrid - it was also mentioned at other times under Johnson's reign to try to force MPs to vote in a certain way - horrid practice.

Is there somewhere (not paywalled) that shows a full set of all the released WhatsApp messages?

Oh yeah they've obviously got a narrative to push. That's a given. We won't get a fuller picture until we see what was released to the enquiry.

The thing about EOTHO increasing cases (inaccurate) doesn't help, depending on what narrative you're trying to present. If you mean they are pushing anti-lockdown, then releasing that exchange seems odd.

I wonder if it might be about trying to set Hancock up as the fall guy. He seems very unpopular with his fellow Tories and they already know he's not contesting the next election.

@EmmaEmerald I totally agree- I don't like the messenger one bit , but it's better that these messages are out there.

Just looked at some of Oakeshott’s retweets. Happily sharing that reformUK are up in a poll.

Still think it’s a non-issue @BashirWithTheGoodBeard ?

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention poll (22 Feb):

🔴 LAB: 46% (-2 from 15 Feb)
🔵 CON: 20% (-1)
🟣 RFM: 9% (+2)
🟢 GRN: 8% (=)
🟠 LDM: 7% (-1)
🟡 SNP: 5% (=)

Yes, it’s a none issue, as the party that implemented your beloved lock down are right wing. This chicanery and stawmanning will not change that.
Also reform are a tiny party, hardly something to worry about.

@EmmaEmerald, fair point. Maybe to show how inept govt were? Ridicule current PM? Was EOTHO and covid increase inaccurate?

Yep. We have a first past the post system here, which means percentage of votes cast for a party doesn't translate to the same percentage of seats. And 9% in a GE opinion poll for a party that isn't one of the small nationalist ones with support concentrated in small geographical areas is nowhere near enough to matter.

Note also the 46% for Labour, which is lower than the more recent polling I'd seen actually. But that's going to be high enough that they'll win a substantial majority.

Here is a recent prediction that takes into account where votes are being cast to assess how many seats each party will win. It puts Reform at between 0 and 1 and Labour with the sort of majority that means they can do whatever they like.

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

Can't think why she wasn't sharing this instead!

Now are you going to tell us what exactly you objected to in my post about the messages being both important and subject to political motivation from those sharing?

Incidentally, analysis of Tice's previous electoral effort, the Brexit Party in 2019, suggests they probably helped Labour and led to fewer right wing MPs overall, because they split the vote.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/03/nigel-farages-brexit-party-saved-labour-seats-in-2019-election-analysis-finds

whatukthinks.org/eu/what-impact-did-the-brexit-party-have-in-the-2019-general-election/

'It is on this basis that we conclude that the Brexit Party’s decision to continue to fight opposition held seats cost the Conservatives seats they might otherwise have won. If we apply that 70:30 ratio to the share of the Brexit Party’ share of the vote in each constituency, we find that there are around 25 seats that Labour managed to retain that might otherwise have fallen from its grasp – many of them in the North of England and the Midlands – and enough to give the Conservatives an overall majority of 130.'

You do have to factor this sort of thing into the equation when you're talking about whether a political party is a threat in a first past the post, multiparty system. This time round, it's likely that Labour are going to be too far ahead for anything Reform does to matter on a grand scale, again because of the way FPTP works. But it's certainly possible that there'll be more Labour MPs than there would otherwise have been if Tice manages to split the right wing vote again.

Someone posted a table of cases..unsurprisingly there was a spike in winter.

was the Hancock claim about deaths?

here's the ONS on that

www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/covid19deathsresultingfromtheeatouttohelpoutscheme

re painting Hancock as a fall guy, the messages don't put anyone in government in a good light.

OP - yes, the level of distraction and strawmanning on this thread is something else. I really recommend the Triggernometry interview. There is a sense of just giving up among anti lockdowners like moi, clearly the people are just yelling "more dictatorship" and I should really move on as I know it's like picking at a scab and making it worse.

i do wonder if, like a lot of things, the silent majority won't speak up because they will be pilloried.

It's a great shame too that this thread is now on about left, right, Brexit, Remain, but well done to all the derailers. 🤷🏻‍♀️

Yes, the graph showed autumn spike which also coincided with 3 other European countries who did not have eotho.