Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022

[Jenasaurus]

Welcome to another instalment of the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Thanks for posting those boys

Moldovan distraction, let's try those last three again

and the final 7

"🚨What determines whether a child gets #LongCovid? A new population based study from Israel identifies the following risk factors:

• Severe acute infection
• ADHD
• Chronic urticaria
• Allergic rhinitis"

twitter.com/kunstjonas/status/1525725864436064258?s=21&t=hlIt3ZWQ0vlYxq9jRLXwPg

Thread on the rise of new sub-variants:
twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1526173939432574977

Main points for twitterless people :
BA.4 overtaking BA.2 in the UK may be as soon as 26th May

BA.2 falling with about ~14-day halving means that a variant growing in proportion with ~4 day doubling will show substantial absolute growth.
20% growing with 4-day doubling with 80% falling at 14-day halving means the overall fall should have stopped ... yesterday

Caveats... where to start?
Ascertainment low, so extrapolating huge projections from changes in small numbers. COG may be sampling "interesting" sequences more heavily, which would overstate growth (or invent it). Severity & BA.2 -> BA.4/5 reinfection effect unclear.

South Africa gives cause for optimism that hospitalisation pressure will be significantly lower than BA1/2

Wednesday once more so a quick look at the health metrics for England. All still heading in the right direction. First off hospital admissions

mid May last year saw the lowest seven day average in 2021 before starting to head up. The current seven day average therefore well above this time last year; and equivalent to the level reached last year in mid July.

number in hospital

Thank you.

number on ventilators - all with the previous seven day average unless stated to the contrary

rates per million for NHS England regional admissions

ditto for hospitalisations

finally deaths within 28 days of a positive test

and daily figures plus the seven day average just for this year

Thank you!

Adding thanks.

Thank you from me too. Does anybody know where the U.K. summary has gone? It's just England now.

Have you already all seen this? COVID 19 was the top cause of death in the U.K. in 2020 and 2021, but is only third so far in 2022.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/monthlymortalityanalysisenglandandwales

Yes you can reset the data to uk. Or you can click on nations and select another.

Whilst the MUAs are doing Dr Who a quick update on health metrics in England. All heading in the right direction.

This time last year we were just about at the lowest (eg best) point in terms of admissions, number in hospital. Therefore on the three monthly views these now show the May to July period.

Otherwise usual formats really - all relate just to England, or NHS England region; with seven day averages used unless stated otherwise. The NHS region graphs will show both daily and seven day average

Starting then with the full 12 mnth views for 2020, 2021 and 2022 for hospital admissions

number in hospital

number on mechanical ventilators

deaths within 28 days of a positive test by date of death - taking data up to 15th (ish) May to account for reporting lag.

moving to the overall three month views - May to July. Admissions

number in hospital

the seven day average has just dipped below the 5,000 mark. Whilst this stood at 760 at the same point last year by end July 2021 it had risen to pass 5,000