Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022

[Jenasaurus]

Welcome to another instalment of the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

We are of course hugely under reporting. We know from ONS that we have 3-4 million people infected as of last week.

We think, both on the (relatively few) tests done and the ONS figures, that cases overall are falling.

However, ONS figures suggest that, while infections are falling a bit in school children, they are rising in older groups, where there is likely to be higher morbidity and mortality.

We also are not offering further boosters to large swathes of the vulnerable. There may be rationales for that but it does feel as though there isn't much of a plan.

The treatments such as molnupiravir that were hailed as reducing mortality substantially, now seem to be quite hard to get prescribed unless, for example, you are under a transplant care team.

2266 deaths in the past 7 days apparently, as of today.

2,266 deaths is the reported number so it includes a significant catch up from the long bank holiday weekend (April 15-18). The specimen date graph will look very different.

Our BA.2 wave has been higher than in many other countries but it was partially a catch up following a relatively muted BA.1 wave in Dec-Jan.

Deaths after over two years of these threads I;d have really hoped we'd grasp by now the fundamental difference between the daily reported numbers and the actual date of deaths.

Following up on Winter's point therefore this is just England but shows reported deaths each day as the bars and daily actual deaths as the line. As actual date of death has a lag - we need a good 7 days before being pretty close to the final daily figure hence the black line reflects where we are likely to see more deaths added; with the majority for the more recent dates.

this is then actual daily deaths by date of occurrence and the seven day average.

As this shows the daily peak in the exit wave looks to have been 8th April with 261 deaths and the seven day average reaching 240 on the 13th April, and starting the slowly slip back. Again allowing for a quite long lag, by the 16th April the seven day average stood at 225

1 Easter was about 10 days ago, with respect to the catching up phenomenon.

2 I don't see clear evidence of a fall in numbers as was suggested up thread. It looks instead if anything as if the numbers of deaths are gradually increasing as evidenced by the 7 day totals.

It is very helpful to be able to have a discussion here though, as there doesn't seem to be much discussion in the media.

compared with the same time last year - again just in England - deaths by date of death quite a lot higher. Towards the end of last April we were heading towards close to single digit daily numbers.

and finally the overall comparison so far

Thanks for that!

(cross posted)

However, if the 7 day tallies are going up right now, I would hesitate to say that there is a fall in numbers until we see how that trend continues.

Right, and that last graph would suggest that the 7 day average of deaths with 28 days as of (?) 23rd April was under 250 - the figures we have been seeing have been higher than that surely?

The 7 day average of reported deaths as of today would be 323 ish.

The day of death figures for mid April wouldn't be available yet.

I'd take the counter view that the 7 day reported totals tell us - as they have done throughout the pandemic - little of value and that's a generous assessment

The actual daily numbers in the most recent week are of course not complete but in the way they are building up give cause for optimism.

All that said I don't see getting back to that very low plateau seen from May last year.

Easter was a week ago (with April 18 being the last bank holiday) but the reporting catch ups occurred on April 19 (411 reported deaths), April 20 (443 reported deaths) and April 21 (624 reported deaths).

It is also worth noting that UK excess deaths (the “objective” measure of mortality) are running slightly below the 2015-2019 baseline so while Covid deaths are absolutely happening, this wave is very different from what we experienced in the pre-vaccine world:

twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1518873980186284032

No - the seven day average (remembering I'm just looking at England, although with some 85% of the UK population does account for the vast majority of deaths) by date of death is only up to 16th April. The archive function within the dashboard provides the data to see exactly how much lag we need to get to 50% of final daily deaths, 75%, 90%; 95% etc. Based on that I think 16th April is a more than reasonable point to take.

This is therefore the daily graph starting from mid March, Beyond the 16th the dotted line is based on data so far and of course will end up higher than that shown, but I'd suggest from the comparative data will still be on a downward trajectory - not hugely rapid but still downward.

Looking at other aspects - this is the admissions picture in England

and one for full pandemic

numbers in hospital

and again full pandemic - again all these graphs are for England

ventilator numbers largely flat

similar for NHS England regions - just with the March-May current and last year figures. These are for Admissions - East of England, London, and Midlands

North East and Yorkshire, and North West

South East and South West

Numbers in hospital -East of England

London

Midlands

North East and Yorkshire

North West