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Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022

1000 replies

Jenasaurus · 09/04/2022 05:18

Welcome to another instalment of the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

OP posts:
Thread gallery
961
alreadytaken · 19/04/2022 18:33

I'm under 75- offer me a vaccine and I'll take it, even if I had to pay. I want to travel, I'd feel safer with another dose.

Words · 20/04/2022 13:11

Me too already I would feel that bit safer I think, but I have always been at thé doomy end of the scale regarding COViD, following this thread for balance really.

My friend who is 75 had her second booster at the first available opportunity.

LoveSpringDaffs · 20/04/2022 13:24

I'm 53 with underlyings - I'd definitely have another booster if offered.

herecomesthsun · 20/04/2022 21:39

"Daily deaths remain low
There were 508 deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported on Wednesday, of which 443 were reported in England, 45 in Scotland, 18 in Wales and two in Northern Ireland."

From the official figures (which took some finding).

That... doesn't look particularly low.

The figures from yesterday, which includes the long weekend, with no doubt some backlog, was over 400 I think.

We still have really high case numbers on ONS, with % positive in the older age groups high.

boys3 · 21/04/2022 21:05

health metrics in England update - largely moving in the right direction but way higher than at this time last year.

Staring with hospital admissions with the full year comps

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
boys3 · 21/04/2022 21:06

and just showing the March-April comp this year and last year

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
boys3 · 21/04/2022 21:08

number in hospital full year comp

boys3 · 21/04/2022 21:09

trying that one again

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
boys3 · 21/04/2022 21:10

then number in hospital just for March and April

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
boys3 · 21/04/2022 21:11

numbers on ventilators now just about exactly the same as this time last year

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
boys3 · 21/04/2022 21:12

and

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
boys3 · 21/04/2022 21:14

NHS England regions rates per million for number in hospital

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
boys3 · 21/04/2022 21:17

finally deaths within 28 days of a positive test in England.

This first just shows daily numbers - both for actual date of death and reported date - highlighting how misleading the latter can be. With this graph just for 2022 from 1st Jan

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
boys3 · 21/04/2022 21:19

just by date of death daily and seven day average since start of this year

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
boys3 · 21/04/2022 21:19

now the full year comparative picture

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
boys3 · 21/04/2022 21:21

and just for March and April. The current daily average way off 2021 peaks, but standing at around the 230 mark as compared with around 20 at the same time last year.

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
Cornettoninja · 22/04/2022 10:45

Thanks to all those still collecting and surveying the data.

The fatality figures from the last couple of days I’ll admit have me a bit spooked. I’m not sure whether they’re down to the long bank holiday reporting break, the way we collate figures (+ within 28 days) or if there is actually a problem brewing. The recent declines in projected infections shows that we should probably expect to see a decline in fatalities in coming weeks I suspect.

Lonelyplanet · 22/04/2022 18:42

Great new page showing cases per million for selected countries, coloured by the estimated frequency of variants:
covariants.org/cases

Lonelyplanet · 24/04/2022 09:00

South Africa is worth watching again.
twitter.com/rid1tweets/status/1517910951969935360

It is probably BA.4 and/or BA.5
covidactuaries.org/2022/04/22/the-friday-report-issue-65/
"Small numbers of samples of sub-lineages BA.4 and BA.5 (descendants of BA.2) have been submitted to GISAID from a number of countries. The majority are noted in South Africa, and may be linked to rising case counts and test positivity rates there."

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
wordleaddict · 25/04/2022 18:49

How do we read the 78% increase in deaths in last 7 days?

Lonelyplanet · 25/04/2022 19:42

wordleaddict · 25/04/2022 18:49

How do we read the 78% increase in deaths in last 7 days?

It is only because last week there was a lot of catch up due to the 4 day weekend and all of last week's numbers are in today's figure. It will drop again over the next few days.

AnyFucker · 25/04/2022 19:59

😨

boys3 · 25/04/2022 20:47

wordleaddict · 25/04/2022 18:49

How do we read the 78% increase in deaths in last 7 days?

We don’t as reported figures and deaths by date of occurrence are completely different things. By date of death in England at least and with a week’s lag the seven day average looks to have peaked and now be starting to turn.

herecomesthsun · 26/04/2022 06:53

How are deaths within the last 7 days starting to turn? I'd like that to be true, but I don't understand how you get that. (I rummaged around but couldn't find an up to date chart with deaths per day including yesterday's figures)

I note we seem to have had more of an increase in death numbers than other countries, which presumably (at least some of them) also celebrating Easter, so I am curious about that - why we have had more of an apparent peak around the Easter holiday and also if there is any reason why we seem to have the highest numbers of deaths in the world right now.

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
MargaretThursday · 26/04/2022 19:06

@herecomesthsun

I think there is an aspect that we did our vaccinations of the vulnerable/older groups earlier so then when the latest wave (which isn't really shown on the figures as they stopped testing, but Zoe/ONS had the rise) hit they were more vulnerable, so we would expect our rates to go up.

I did also notice that although France was reporting large case number (350k 7 day average) their death rate was similar to ours (about 330 7 day rolling average). So either they are healthier than us, their heath care/vaccinations worked better than us or we were severely under reporting (while being rather smug that our infections weren't as bad as their's).

I'm also a bit surprised by the reinfection numbers. It seems to be staying fairly consistently just above 10%, which implies to me that infection is pretty good at stopping reinfection. Especially as a number of people who get it (like healthcare workers/teachers etc) cannot avoid being exposed to it, so are more likely to get it again than, say, my dh, who wfh and wouldn't often meet inside in a crowd,
Currently I would say of people I know 75% are reinfections (or reinfections of the reinfection... or more), but at the same time (having asked) the majority haven't bothered reporting, sometimes either infection.

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