On course for another lockdown?

[TalkToTheHand123]

Covis cases on a rapid rise, heading towards 100,000 daily cases. Are we heading for another lockdown?

@hamstersarse

Given lockdowns don’t work and only achieve a reduction in infections of 0.2%, all the while destroying the economy, jobs, education, mental health….yeah, good idea!

This study has been widely critiqued for being flawed. I work in medical research and it's crazy this was approved, especially considering it was done by John Hopkins uni who have been so reputable so far!

@DockOTheBay

But yeah no to lockdowns, still.

@x2boys

It really doesn't matter how many cases there are / the population COVID isn't going away this has always been known We only locked down when it seemed the NHS was going to be over whelmed Unless there is a new varient that is vaccine resistant it's just the way life is going to be now It's still a nasty virus for some but vaccines are doing their job in the main for now at least

The current short duration of vaccine protection means that we're pretty much already there in terms of effect of vaccination protection to society.

Even with current mild disease patterns, it means we can't tackle NHS backlog (unless we are prepared to make hospitals unsafe for those who mist need them, such as people receiving cancer treatment) - because patients arent just those admitted to covid wards - it could be any patient in any department, so all need green / red areas, and that has an effect on numbers that can be seen.

What will be key is the sort of disease that future variants produce.

As the virus is infectious before symptoms, there is no evolutionary pressure for it to stay mild (once it's moved on, it doesn't matter how sick/dead it makes the host) so future variants could be much the same, milder, or produce moderate/severe disease. We won't know until it's happens.

As the virus is infectious before symptoms, there is no evolutionary pressure for it to stay mild (once it's moved on, it doesn't matter how sick/dead it makes the host) so future variants could be much the same, milder, or produce moderate/severe disease. We won't know until it's happens.

It is random but I’ve thing to add is impact of increasing immunity. Sarah Gilbert talks about this and that the virus doesn’t have to get milder for impact to be less severe on population level.

I realised if we were to throw caution to the wind and have a holiday and did catch covid, most people would think "serves you right"

Absolutely not. I have never felt anyone is to blame for spreading or catching a virus. All I ask is that you don't demand other people's life is limited.

Life is short. Live it as you want to. Me? I'd hug my family, have sleepovers, visit zoos and theatres and accept the risk that goes with it. I accept that others would prefer to live with less risk of catching a virus. For me guaranteed loneliness is the worst option, if catching covid or people potentially judging you is worse that's your choice.

Choose carefully. You only get one chance to live each day

I noticed a few posters saying they hardly knew anyone who had had the virus and noone under 80 who died from it. Well it may depend where you live and how many people you know but Certainly where I live (London) I know of loads of people who have had it recently (myself and my daughter included) and the cases I know of had no connection (i.e no contact between the individuals apart from myself and my daughter). Often it isnt discussed as to the reasons someone is ill but sometimes it slips out so I know of plenty of confirmed cases and some I suspect (eg I had a school tour cancelled last week because the person giving the tour was ill but the suggested rebook date is now cancelled too. It seems unlikely that they couldnt find another person to do a show round if it was simply an isolated illness affecting one person (this is a state school so they dont need a marketing person to sell the school).

Personally I think the unofficial aim now is herd immunity and that wont change unless the death rate rises sharply. That is probably the most sensible solution for the moment because the country just cant keep locking down. Too much is affected by lockdowns and the omnicron variant has been mild. If the situation changes then there might have to be a rethink but not at the moment.

No, another lockdown would not be accepted by the vast majority of population. The mortality of Covid would have to be much higher for that to be justified!

There will always be deaths and post-viral illnesses with flu as well. Unfortunately it’s the nature of the beast.

Yes we cannot avoid every death unfortunately.

We need to decide what an 'acceptable' level of death is and what restrictions to our lives we are prepared to make, as a society.

Over 75's, care home residents and vulnerable to be offered booster appointments from tomorrow as 1 in 20 has covid.

@TalkToTheHand123

Over 75's, care home residents and vulnerable to be offered booster appointments from tomorrow as 1 in 20 has covid.

This is inadequate, the threshold of 75+ is too high.

COVID is a really nasty virus causing a lot of sickness absence from work and we really need to continue with the vaccination programme.

The govt are trying to save in the short term but their inability to deal properly with COVID is goingt o cost more in the long run. Stupid government!

It's 75 now but that doesn't mean future boosters won't be rolled out. The vaccination programme has always been done by age. They can't do everyone at once.

*This is inadequate, the threshold of 75+ is too high.

*First, that's probably just a start

Second, how many younger healthy adults would actually WANT a fourth jab??

@Lilaclavenders

*This is inadequate, the threshold of 75+ is too high. *First, that's probably just a start

Second, how many younger healthy adults would actually WANT a fourth jab??

I'm 30 and would have one if offered due to the benefits for myself & other people.

Wouldn't be stressing if my age group wasn't included though.

I'm older than 30 (but younger than 75) and am not keen to get a fourth jab. The side effects of the vaccine (including screwed up periods for several months) are far greater than the benefits - given how mildly many of my unvaccinated family members have had covid.

We need to decide what an 'acceptable' level of death is and what restrictions to our lives we are prepared to make, as a society

I believe that the benchmark has been set at 50k pa approx. That could be wrong though so treat it as the here-say it is.

Aside from that, now it’s clear we haven’t got a sterilising vaccine and a variant that appears to circulate quickly and repeatedly (although that may be down to further mutations which may calm down. I don’t know how likely that is) deaths aren’t the only impact that need to be considered. Hospital capacity isn’t designed to operate at winter flu levels year round and then extra with flu during the winter, isolation needs to be accommodated within hospitals and care homes, the general level of sickness of workers will increase and there are economic impacts resulting from that and similar impacts in education.

For instance; DD’s primary school have said that tests won’t be required due to having to buy them but that coughs, temperatures and loss of small and taste will all require five days off school as standard in the absence of a negative covid test. Fine by me, I’ll probably buy a test but most won’t be prepared to risk fines for following schools instructions and there hasn't been a peep LA about changing their absence formula.

Some people do like to doom us. It’s a though they like all the drama.

Death rates are low, spring is around the corner. Travel restrictions have generally been lifted for travel abroad.

We are done with lockdowns. I know some people want it all to continue though.

@Lilaclavenders

There will always be deaths and post-viral illnesses with flu as well. Unfortunately it’s the nature of the beast.

Yes we cannot avoid every death unfortunately.

We need to decide what an 'acceptable' level of death is and what restrictions to our lives we are prepared to make, as a society.

That's the reality, and I think most rational people know it.

However, to actually state this out loud would be siezed on, exploited by the media, and the opposition would seek to use it to their advantage.

how many younger healthy adults would actually WANT a fourth jab

I'm in my 40s and reasonably healthy. Happy to have as many jabs as required.

Also happy to have my kids jabbed. Took my 9 year old yesterday for her first.

No we aren't and never should have been locked down in the bloody first place.

Potentially restrictions could be re-introduced like mask-wearing, testing still being free and available, isolating becoming law etc etc

But we are not going to see the likes of a 2020 lockdown ever again.

I don't think people are prepared to follow any new restrictions, even if they became the law.

I think people would only be prepared for any new restrictions if the mortality of any new variant was significantly higher!

@dorisdohnson

Potentially restrictions could be re-introduced like mask-wearing, testing still being free and available, isolating becoming law etc etc

But we are not going to see the likes of a 2020 lockdown ever again.

Even the more minor restrictions, I can't see how that's going to happen. There aren't the votes in the parliamentary Conservative party, and Johnson couldn't sustain having to rely on the Opposition to pass it. He'd be out. Additionally, the public have had it and any government trying to introduce laws that'll be widely ignored look weak.

I guess something like free testing might be a bit different because it's not a restriction, so it's a different sell. But masks and isolation, not in England.

I doubt our partying PM could enforce a lockdown now, so no.

@TebayOrNotTebay

I doubt our partying PM could enforce a lockdown now, so no.

I know that he's a master lier but I don' think even Johnson could keep a straight face if he asked the British people to lockdown again.

@Lilaclavenders

I don't think people are prepared to follow any new restrictions, even if they became the law.

I think people would only be prepared for any new restrictions if the mortality of any new variant was significantly higher!

I do not want a lockdown, I do not think a lock down is needed.

But I genuinely do not understand why people would rather catch COVID than wear a mask.

COVID is a nasty little bastard of a virus, my super healthy young relative is into the third week off work and feeling utterly grim.

Why do people want to catch it? It makes no sense to me.

No way.
There will be no compliance and the powers that be know it.